Betting Talk

Help with a hedge bet please

mjnapcomjnapco Member
edited April 2018 in Sports Betting
Hi, I was wondering if someone here who’s smarter than me could help me out please.

I have Loyola to win it all for 25.00, it pays 9,500.00

I already hedged (unsuccessfully) on Saturday with Kansas St. -120 for 1500 = -1800

I’m currently down 1800

So my question is, what should I do from here?

I want to make sure I recoup at the 1825 for my worst case scenario.

I am thinking of hitting the three remaining teams to win it all, do you guys think I should go about it that way? The current odds are below.

Villanova +105
Michigan +275
Kansas +340

Or if you don’t think that’s what I should do then what do you think would be a better option. Any help would be greatly appreciated

Thanks a lot!

Comments

  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    mjnapco wrote: »
    I’m currently down 1800

    So my question is, what should I do from here?

    I want to make sure I recoup at the 1825 for my worst case scenario.

    In (micro-)Economic Theory, those $1800 are called 'sunk costs'. Any decision you make going fprward, while trying to also recoup the $1800 will most probably lead to a worse result.

    Thus the only thing you should look at is the $25-future-bet-to-win-$9500, and how you should hedge that, without taking into account the $1800 you lost already.

    Good Luck
  • nicalanownicalanow Junior Member
    edited March 2018
    I dont think there is a worst case scenario of you breaking even
  • mjnapcomjnapco Member
    edited March 2018
    nicalanow wrote: »
    I dont think there is a worst case scenario of you breaking even

    I tried 1000 different scenarios and I'm pretty sure you're right, I think I'm totally screwed. Makes me pretty depressed, oh and stupid too!
  • mjnapcomjnapco Member
    edited March 2018
    Thanks for your help Obi, i am just totally screwed! My own fault, i have no one to blame but myself!
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    nicalanow wrote: »
    I dont think there is a worst case scenario of you breaking even

    Please look up "sunk costs" or "sunk cost fallacy" in economic theory,
    this will help explain my previous post. I'm not saying he can't get the money back, all I'm saying is that per the sunk cost theory, he shouldn't be reasoning or strategizing from the loss he already incurred, but only from the money he can still make on his future-bet.

    On this forum there have been multiple discussions as to *when-to-hedge*. The result of those discussions have mainly been twofold:
    1. Only bet the other side, when you deem that bet to be +EV.
    2. In the case of a 'life-changing' or a 'significant-bankroll-expanding' amount, then it would become a personal choice of the holder of the ticket to hedge, depending on his/her own propensity to risk.

    Rest assured that unless mnjapco viewed Kansas State as a +EV bet, the hedge was a very bad decision. All he stood to lose was $25. Given that there were 3 games left at that point and that Loyola would be an underdog in almost every single one of them, he shouldn't have reasoned from *I can win $9500* but should have leaned more toward *I lose only $25, should they lose this game vs Kansas State*. The $1800 bet on Kansas State clearly points to him thinking from the *I can win $9500* angle.

    As to this particular case itself, I'd gladly hear your (nicalanow) strategy on how to break even, given the current $1825 he's down in the hole.

    edit: I might have misunderstood your comment nicalanow.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    As to this particular case itself, I'd gladly hear your (nicalanow) strategy on how to break even, given the current $1825 he's down in the hole.

    edit: I might have misunderstood your comment nicalanow.

    In that case there's not a whole lot to explain haha
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I’m thinking: bet $1800 on the team Loyola plays next — if Loyola loses you should then be even. If Loyola wins you are now $3,600 down. So bet $3,600 on the team Loyola plays in the finals. If that team wins, again you are even. If Loyola wins you have lost a total of $7,200 in hedge bets, but you have won $9,500 to cover the loss for a net of $2,300. Does that work?
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    rook wrote: »
    I’m thinking: bet $1800 on the team Loyola plays next — if Loyola loses you should then be even. If Loyola wins you are now $3,600 down. So bet $3,600 on the team Loyola plays in the finals. If that team wins, again you are even. If Loyola wins you have lost a total of $7,200 in hedge bets, but you have won $9,500 to cover the loss for a net of $2,300. Does that work?


    To win $1800 on the team Loyola plays next, he'd have to bet $4320 as the line is -240
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Oh, hell!
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    So if he ended up $5,120 down with god-knows-what odds for the final game, he would need to use up much more than his $9,500 allowance to hedge that final game...so I guess any hedging would have to be done in order to mitigate loss rather than prevent it...
  • mjnapcomjnapco Member
    edited March 2018
    Yep! Obi is right. If all teams playing Loyola were +100 for the rest of the tourney then I'd be fine, but they're not, Mich is -240, and if Loyola wins then Kansas or Villanova will be one hell of a lot more than -240, i'm thinking at least -400. So again, I am screwed and stupid!
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    mjnapco wrote: »
    Yep! Obi is right. If all teams playing Loyola were +100 for the rest of the tourney then I'd be fine, but they're not, Mich is -240, and if Loyola wins then Kansas or Villanova will be one hell of a lot more than -240, i'm thinking at least -400. So again, I am screwed and stupid!

    Unless Loyola win it all off course
  • mjnapcomjnapco Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Unless Loyola win it all off course

    Or if Loyola gets a pretty sizable lead in either game and the live line drops to around even for those opponents.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Or perhaps even if Loyola just wins one more game?
  • mjnapcomjnapco Member
    edited March 2018
    Yes if Loyola wins their next game vs Mich than my situation certainly improves, but I'm still not out of the woods. Hey all I can say is I had a momentary lapse in judgement. I didn't think it through and now i'm paying for my stupidity. I'm literally sick that I was so stupid.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    mjnapco wrote: »
    Yes if Loyola wins their next game vs Mich than my situation certainly improves, but I'm still not out of the woods. Hey all I can say is I had a momentary lapse in judgement. I didn't think it through and now i'm paying for my stupidity. I'm literally sick that I was so stupid.

    I can understand your feelings,
    rest assured many of us have gone through 'dumb decisions' to become better at sportsbetting. Take the lesson and move on. Just like a 'sunk cost' ;)

    Rooting for ya in the next game!
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I basically made the same mistake as you did so I won’t be in any hurry to throw accusations around. I guess worst case scenario is Loyola gets trounced from the start in their next game and leave no opportunity to hedge. But hedging in general doesn’t seem so stupid to me. Good luck!
  • mjnapcomjnapco Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    I can understand your feelings,
    rest assured many of us have gone through 'dumb decisions' to become better at sportsbetting. Take the lesson and move on. Just like a 'sunk cost' ;)

    Rooting for ya in the next game!

    Thanks a lot for the support, and thanks for your assistance. I was going crazy trying dozens of different scenarios. I was looking at parlays, open ended parlays, hitting all three teams left other than Loyola to win it all. Hitting just Michigan to win it all and then waiting to see what happens. Literally nothing provided me with a good outcome.
  • mjnapcomjnapco Member
    edited March 2018
    Yeah but if Loyola gets trounced in their next game (Michigan) then I am out $1700, I need them to win very badly, or go up big so i can get a descent + number on a moneyline hedge.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Just curious mjnapco, did that first-half lead give the odds you needed to recover the $1,800?
  • mjnapcomjnapco Member
    edited April 2018
    Happy Easter! I was going to post something at some point today, I hit Michigan’s money line at the absolute perfect time, when they were down by 10 points, I got +210 on it, I hit the max live line bet that I was allowed to for $500, so I ended up winning $1050, not quite 1800, but one hell of a lot better than the situation I had before yesterday, so all in all I was pretty pleased, I appreciate you asking
    rook wrote: »
    Just curious mjnapco, did that first-half lead give the odds you needed to recover the $1,800?
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    mjnapco wrote: »
    Happy Easter! I was going to post something at some point today, I hit Michigan’s money line at the absolute perfect time, when they were down by 10 points, I got +210 on it, I hit the max live line bet that I was allowed to for $500, so I ended up winning $1050, not quite 1800, but one hell of a lot better than the situation I had before yesterday, so all in all I was pretty pleased, I appreciate you asking

    All right! Glad to hear it wasn’t a total disaster. And great timing on the 10-point lead. Happy Easter!
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