Betting Talk

SJ55 2017 Picks

sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
edited October 2017 in Sports Betting
Cincinnati Bengals -3 -120 LOCKED (x2) Writeup coming in a bit.

Comments

  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I think this is a scenario where you have a very over-rated team in Buffalo vs a slightly under-rated team in Cincy. This offense to me is still one of the worst in the NFL. Lesean McCoy is the only real quality offensive player they have and he's averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Cincy has a top 5 rushing defense so I don't see Lesean breaking out tomorrow. Bills #1 WR Jordan Matthews is hurt. This leaves Zay Jones as the #1 WR and he's caught 4 balls on 17 targets, less than 25%. Buffalo's TE Charles Clay is the biggest receiving weapon they have but Cincinnati counters him with one of the best coverage line backers in the league, Vincent Rey. Tyrod Taylor is only averaging 186 passing yards a game, worst in NFL. C

    Cincy has a very capable offense with QB Andy Dalton, WR AJ Green, RB’s Gio Bernard/Joe Mixon. Their TE Tyler Kroft is coming off a 2TD game as well. I think with home field and some confidence coming off a big win, this offense will put up points. No team has ran for more than 3.8 yards per carry against Cincy yet and only 1 QB has been effective vs them (Rodgers). IMO, Bengals should be favored by around 5 points in this game.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Bengals win by 4 despite AJ Green single handedley causing 3 really bad turnovers.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Denver Nuggets -1.5 -115 (x1) Writeup coming shortly.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    The Denver Nuggets will be treating tonights game as a regular season game going with their real starting line up and the shorter bench rotation. Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, Paul Milsap and Jokic will be starting. 4th Quarters can be toss up's in preseason with teams going deep into their bench with guys who won't even be on the team but that obviously won't be the case with Denver. Denver has a solid bench with Kenneth Faried, Will Barton, Mason Plumlee, Trey Lyles, Juan Hernangomez and Malik Beasely. Denver is 3-1 so far in preseason despite having not played in one true home game yet at Pepsi Center. They beat GS, the hyped Lakers twice and only lost to the Spurs.

    The Thunder are 2-1 in preseason so far but just barely beat a terrible Melbourne team by 1 point. Westbrook recently had a knee injection and has really struggled in his 1st two preseason outings. Carmelo and Paul George have been decent so far. The chemistry between the three is obviously just not there and will take several months to get there. The bench is what I think is going to hurt Oklahoma City the most though. They have zero firepower. Last game the bench consisted of Josh Huestis, Jerami Grant, Semaj Criston, Terrance Ferguson and Ray Felton (not playing tonight). These are basically D-League players who have been pushed into signficant bench roles since OKC went after the two big name players this off-season.

    Denver has a much more solid, cohesive unit that has played a few years together and knows exactly what they want to do tonight while I OKC is still primarily in experimentation mode in terms of rotations, defensive schemes and what plays they are running. Billy Donovan already stated he will let Westbrook play till halftime but isn't sure if he will play much after that. This is Denver's 1st home game and last preseason game till the opener next Wednesday and I expect them to play very hard and go for the win.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Anyone have any idea why line shot up to Nuggets -4?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    The word is out on you.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    The word is out on you.

    Great post.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    sweetjones55 wrote: »
    Denver Nuggets -1.5 -115 (x1) Writeup coming shortly.

    Loser
  • bumpobumpo Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    kane wrote: »
    Loser

    Seriously?
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    bumpo wrote: »
    Seriously?

    Yes I'm being serious, it was a loser
  • bumpobumpo Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Thanks for the update.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    When Cincy won the next morning we heard that Cincy won despite A.J. Green causing three bad turnovers. I took that to mean it shouldn't have been a close game. Now that Denver got hammered I don't see anything about that play. Consistency is the key to any business.
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I should start my own tout service. I wonder if followdatpinnysteam.com is taken.
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