Betting Talk

A Locals NBA offer

ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
edited October 2017 in Sports Betting
So a local owes me about 5k. He told me he would give me the middle line on the ML (ie. +350/-450 would be +400) on all NBA games in exchange for dropping the 5k he owes. My max wager is $3k. Is there any reason in the world to not take his offer (assuming that he pays)?

I'm strongly leaning towards yes and banging every dog ML.

Comments

  • ggm1976ggm1976 Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    ericvanden wrote: »
    So a local owes me about 5k. He told me he would give me the middle line on the ML (ie. +350/-450 would be +400) on all NBA games in exchange for dropping the 5k he owes. My max wager is $3k. Is there any reason in the world to not take his offer (assuming that he pays)?

    I'm strongly leaning towards yes and banging every dog ML.

    No way, tell him to pay up. What happens if you bang the Moneylines & he owes you 5k in two weeks?
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    He will pay. I'm not worried about collecting at all. From a math point of view, it seems like a good deal. Would require me going back and looking at all the closing lines but was curious if anybody would know right off the bat. I appreciate the response though gg!
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Your local appears to be a clever degenerate.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited October 2017
    If it were me, I'd take the 5k now. His offer does sound great, but if he's struggling coming up with 5k today, what's gonna happen when it's 5 figures? And with an offer like this that's too good to be true, why wouldn't he either cut your limits or pull it at some point. I think you'd be dreaming to think that he'll really let you play every NBA dog the entire season under these parameters.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    He isn't struggling to pay. He knows I bet a lot of NBA so just put that offer up. He said he'd give the money that he owes me to a common friend and after every 30 days, he'd take 16% back from that amount. If he backs out after 2 months, i still get 3300. The money isn't the problem, it's whether or not the math makes sense on 2k bets hammering every dog at the middle line and think I got my answer (also the one I was hoping for).
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited October 2017
    ericvanden wrote: »
    He isn't struggling to pay. He knows I bet a lot of NBA so just put that offer up. He said he'd give the money that he owes me to a common friend and after every 30 days, he'd take 16% back from that amount. If he backs out after 2 months, i still get 3300. The money isn't the problem, it's whether or not the math makes sense on 2k bets hammering every dog at the middle line and think I got my answer (also the one I was hoping for).

    On the dogs...If you come out of the gate on a 2-20 run or something like that, your bankroll still fine paying the 35k and continuing on at 2k/game? Some variance in play for you hammering dogs every night.

    And on the flip side...you come out hot and you're up 60k after a few weeks, you feel good about collecting it?
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I think so, fortunately, it would be a once a month collection so there should be some leveling out if either situation happens. There's also a 20k max payout per month on both sides and the rest would rollover to help balance things out. I understand it can go badly. I think I will just have to look at the last 2-3 seasons to see how it would have panned out in that 2500 game sample.
  • MrAdvantageMrAdvantage Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    lolololollolololo
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    ericvanden wrote: »
    So a local owes me about 5k. He told me he would give me the middle line on the ML (ie. +350/-450 would be +400) on all NBA games in exchange for dropping the 5k he owes. My max wager is $3k. Is there any reason in the world to not take his offer (assuming that he pays)?

    I'm strongly leaning towards yes and banging every dog ML.

    http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/

    Use this to find the true no vig line, in this case +368. If he's going to give you the average, in this case +400, you'll have an edge with the dog ML on every single play. Whether you can collect or not is something I can't speak to, but mathematically, fire away.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Eric R U serious? He doesn't know you'll be betting all dogs? Lots of luck getting gouged. I think this is BS.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Yeah Dr. I have used that site. I know I have an edge in this situation but wasn't sure if it was worth 2.5 units over the course of an entire season. Thanks for your help guys!
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    like DrH said, whatever you do make sure to bet dogs if you accept the deal
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    eric you bet 3 grand a game and your asking questions on this site...the guy owes you 5 k , share some of your plays please
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