2017 CFB
helmut
Senior Member
374 Missouri UNDER 73
I think this line and all the money that came in on the over is a complete over reaction to what happened in the Missouri week #1 game. First of all Missouri St. was had one of the worst defense at the FCS level last season. Also Missouri has proven they can score a lot on the teams with bad defense but anyone that had a half way decent defense the points did not come so easily. Last season South Carolina played a similar opponent to Missouri in South Florida (that plays fast, scores a lot and has bad defense) in the bowl and the total was only 58. I just can't play Muschamp team over a total this high. The guy is defense first coach and has been notorious for his teams having bad offenses. They won the game last week but only had 246 yds of offense in that game. Muschamp has also stated he wants to run the ball and burn clock this weekend. Missouri run defense was terrible last season and doesn't look any better this season so I can see the clock running a lot when South Carolina has the ball.
I think this line and all the money that came in on the over is a complete over reaction to what happened in the Missouri week #1 game. First of all Missouri St. was had one of the worst defense at the FCS level last season. Also Missouri has proven they can score a lot on the teams with bad defense but anyone that had a half way decent defense the points did not come so easily. Last season South Carolina played a similar opponent to Missouri in South Florida (that plays fast, scores a lot and has bad defense) in the bowl and the total was only 58. I just can't play Muschamp team over a total this high. The guy is defense first coach and has been notorious for his teams having bad offenses. They won the game last week but only had 246 yds of offense in that game. Muschamp has also stated he wants to run the ball and burn clock this weekend. Missouri run defense was terrible last season and doesn't look any better this season so I can see the clock running a lot when South Carolina has the ball.
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The Ducks home games have gone over the total at almost a 75% clip over the last 10 years. Even last year when they had a down year they still managed to put up points with the overs going 5-1. I really can't see why they shouldn't continue to put up points this year as they have done in the past with most of the key players on offense back and an upgrade in the coaching department. The Ducks home games over the last two years plus the first game this year have averaged 84.7 total points.
408 Ole Miss -31.5
421 Eastern Illinois +17
189 Georgia Tech -2
I'm just not a drinker of this UCF koolaide. I think were getting an over reaction to their win in week#1 against FIU where they scored 61 pts. First of all they killed them last year and FIU also looked like crap against Alcorn St. So I'm thinking they're still a really bad team. Last season whenever UCF played anyone good they were usually soundly beaten. They were not within two TD's of Michigan, USF and Tulsa failing to cover in any of those games. Also they were beaten at home by a bottom Big 10 team in Maryland. I was impressed with the play of new GT QB Marshall and think they can control the ball and play keep away from the fast paced UCF offense.
Every game between these teams the last four years has been a shootout. I think the Bulldog offense still is going to be potent this year. They put up close to 500 yds on Northwestern St. and the stats against Mississippi St. are a little misleading since they lost 87 yds on one play. Western Kentucky has not looked that good this year and is the reason this total is so low when compared to last years games where both teams combined to score 100+ in each game. The Hilltoppers should still be OK on offense they have a senior QB that was very good last year and a decent RB. Maybe a conference game is what the Hilltoppers need to wake up the offense. The Hilltoppers conference games last season averaged 75.8 ppg and the Bulldogs conference games averaged 76.8. This is a high scoring conference with teams that have historically put up tons of points and with a total this low I just have to play it over.
The Falcons lost a ton on defense. Michigan averaged 42 ppg at home last season and the over was 6-3 in these games. Air Force averaged 37 ppg last season and the over was 8-4. The Falcons had no problem moving the ball in the opening game against VMI. I get that its an FCS and they are not that good but still 650 yds is a very good effort. Harbaugh is no stranger to running up the score when he can.
This Tulsa team comes into this game playing zero defense this year. Maybe no big deal allowing 640 yds to Oklahoma St. but when Louisiana Lafayette is putting up 600 there are some major problems. They’re not stopping the run or the pass and they have allowed 59 and 42 pts this season. Toledo should be strong again on offense behind senior quarterback Woodside and other than Hunt have most of their skill guys back. I don’t see them having much of an issue moving the ball since they are so balance on offense. Since the start of last season Tulsa has scored at least 31pts in every game except two and that was a 3pt effort in a bad weather game against Ohio St. that had one of the best defenses in the nation and last week they put up 24 against Oklahoma St. which looks like they can play some defense this year. Crazy to think that Toledo game last week against Nevada the total was 69 and this week playing an opponent with a much better offense and one of the worst defenses in the nation the total is actually a point lower. Tulsa is just plays to many crazy games to not play an over when the total is under 70.
348 Buffalo UNDER 59.5
I'm just not seeing why this one has been bet up so much. Through three weeks it appears Buffalo has a fairly good defense this season and plays on the slower side. Last season they played three fast pace teams in Ball St., NIU, Bowling Green and all three games were well under this number. In the last 18 games Buffalo has only played 2 games over this number. The Buffalo run defense does not rate high but one of the games was against Army that runs it every down that skews it. Even though the Owls play fast and have the crazy coach the offense to me has not looked that great this season.
The Tigers only put up 3 and 13 pts against South Carolina and Purdue and were suppose to think they can out perform that against an Auburn defense that is currently #3 in the country? This Tiger team is a mess right now and I don't trust them even to get to 10 here. It's not like this Auburn offense is lighting up the score board either. Also Auburn has played its last 8 games under the total. Missouri has played 6 of its last 7 lined games under the total and isn't even play that fast right now.
359 Colorado St. Team Total OVER 37
The two decent teams that Utah St. played they gave up 40+ to both Wake Forest and Wisconsin. The Rams offense has put up better numbers than either of these teams. Also Utah St. allowed BYU to have their best day on offense this season. The Rams have shown they can put up points on bad defenses and even against the better teams like Alabama and Colorado they still came close to 400 yds of offense.