Buddy, nobody is saying you're going to be the one moving the lines. The idea is that, if your angle is worthwhile, other people out there will find it and bet it, and suck all of the value out until you're paying the juice. And you'll have no way of knowing when this happens.
Please spend more than 30 seconds considering this scenario before you reply.
Ok I took some time and thought it over and I think that anything is possible. I still would like to know is this sdql with 1000 games rated and a 5.9% ROI anything special anyway?
total<6.5 and F and starter!=Clayton Kershaw and a $1000 win
But here's what your not getting about this. Here it is again same trend using the past 3.5 years which is a little more current.
total<6.5 and F and starter!=Clayton Kershaw and date>=20140401 Total <132>
I don't want to piss on your parade and I'm not saying not to consider trends went looking to bet. But the way to go is to put your energy into learning how to make a fair line and then play the money not the teams. That's just one way to go. At the very least you'll know if your getting value. Here's one that I like it could happen the way I see it or maybe not.
Tomorrow (Saturday I played the Mets -158 it would surprise me if this didn't hit -180/-185
I appreciate the advice and playing the value is great. I just wanted to clearly understand you so let me ask this you are saying that a line under 6.5 which means to me you got 2 really strong pitchers and in my mind creates a toss up that does not create value in the dog line since this is the scenario?
looking at the sdql the line is average +127 and in reality for the house to cover the juice it would need to be closer to +113. So does that not mean their is value in that line using that sdql scenario?
total<6.5 and F and starter!=Clayton Kershaw and a $1000 win
But here's what your not getting about this. Here it is again same trend using the past 3.5 years which is a little more current.
total<6.5 and F and starter!=Clayton Kershaw and date>=20140401 Total <132>
I don't want to piss on your parade and I'm not saying not to consider trends went looking to bet. But the way to go is to put your energy into learning how to make a fair line and then play the money not the teams. That's just one way to go. At the very least you'll know if your getting value. Here's one that I like it could happen the way I see it or maybe not.
Tomorrow (Saturday I played the Mets -158 it would surprise me if this didn't hit -180/-185
OT could you imagine how different this thread would be at CTG with all the sdql weenies there?
OT could you imagine how different this thread would be at CTG with all the sdql weenies there?
I ask you to please explain why this logic does not make sense and the sdql backs up the logic
Kershaw is a god dont count him and now take any other game where the total is under 6.5, does that not mean that you have 2 very tough pitchers and if you have 2 very tough pitchers I think it creates a toss up type scenario, my brain logic NOT sdql and now you take the sdql and it backs up that logic, does anyone agree with that? and when you talk about value of the line, the average line is +127 and it should be based in win loss % in that scenario closer to +114, does any of this make sense in anyway to anyone and if so or not why?
Please stop the BS and just play it. I think without Kershaw there hasn't been a play this year. I wish you good luck and please let us know how you make out. Benny I thought of this being Rip also but it's not There's no way Rip would understand or be able to learn the SDQL. Hear that Rip now run back across the street.
I think I explained to you in another post that it's been a loser the last 3+ years it just variance . The explanation is in your threads but unless someone agrees with you'll keep saying no explanation. So I'm going to pass on any future discussion on this subject but I wish you the best. Good Luck Pawn Shop, Yes I know who you are. How's the Pawn shop business?
can you please forward me the info showing it as a loser and also the info where you explained it to me, I cant find that data.
thanks for the replies!
Please stop the BS and just play it. I think without Kershaw there hasn't been a play this year. I wish you good luck and please let us know how you make out. Benny I thought of this being Rip also but it's not There's no way Rip would understand or be able to learn the SDQL. Hear that Rip now run back across the street.
Rip is actually a ghost of the old poster Jafar.
He's messing with us by pretending to be dumb.
hey another post of someone saying nothing but have a goodnight and BTW good play today on the reds and the red sox! Hey just curious what is your ROI in the last 1000 games you played?
I had an sdql system that I backtested against 2 1/2 previous NBA seasons, until I had tested it against 1000 games where it actually found a play. For those 1000 games it was hitting at about 68%. I put together, what was for me, my biggest bankroll for the upcoming season, and lost it all pretty quickly. But I kept working it and tracking that system as the season went on, making much smaller bets. That system pretty much failed over the entire season. I still think that system could be improved/tweaked to be a winner, but something seemed to have changed significantly between the seasons I back-tested and that next season. The money loss wasn't jaw-breaking, but the 2 1/2 season's worth of games had to be individually checked manually, so the time I put into the project kind of exhausted me. I was working all day at my real job and then most of the night and all weekend on that system, for 4 or 5 months. I probably won't really look at it in detail again until after I retire from my real job, and I have more time to spare. Before it went south, though, I remember being higher than a kite thinking about how much money I was going to be raking in...
I had an sdql system that I backtested against 2 1/2 previous NBA seasons, until I had tested it against 1000 games where it actually found a play. For those 1000 games it was hitting at about 68%. I put together, what was for me, my biggest bankroll for the upcoming season, and lost it all pretty quickly. But I kept working it and tracking that system as the season went on, making much smaller bets. That system pretty much failed over the entire season. I still think that system could be improved/tweaked to be a winner, but something seemed to have changed significantly between the seasons I back-tested and that next season. The money loss wasn't jaw-breaking, but the 2 1/2 season's worth of games had to be individually checked manually, so the time I put into the project kind of exhausted me. I was working all day at my real job and then most of the night and all weekend on that system, for 4 or 5 months. I probably won't really look at it in detail again until after I retire from my real job, and I have more time to spare. Before it went south, though, I remember being higher than a kite thinking about how much money I was going to be raking in...
I appreciate the post and what was the roi for each season and the total roi since the beginning of sdql in 2004?
I think there are a couple tests to determine if an sdql has feet
1 does it make sense in an average simple bettors mind or 10 of them really
2 did you run it against a few months, days of the week and complete seasons and was it still successful
if it passes both of those tests, I would say it is worth a look for sure
like for me I think the average bettor does the following
looks at pitchers first off, looks at streaks, looks at team in last 5 games or so and looks at team vs the opponent and bet placed on what they see.
so i say you get some juice in the opposite of that
look at this info and tell me what you think
Team hits less than 250
line is heavyish favorite
opp team's starter era is pretty low
you can see how that could have value, you could see how your average Joe might not like that bet, the say man big favorite has not played well lately and the opp pitcher is pretty good, people shy away and that creates value in the line. that is the kind of sdql I like.
yes people will pop in here and tell you it is crap and that if you take a string and stretch it to Ohio it will come back a Cavalier and you have ugly teeth but they wont say anything directly to oppose this logic
hey another post of someone saying nothing but have a goodnight and BTW good play today on the reds and the red sox! Hey just curious what is your ROI in the last 1000 games you played?
He posts across the street ripping this place non stop, then joins here and trolls half the board. He's a drug addicted midget who's little more than a scammer, luckily for me I was able to get my money back so no harm on my end
He posts across the street ripping this place non stop, then joins here and trolls half the board. He's a drug addicted midget who's little more than a scammer, luckily for me I was able to get my money back so no harm on my end
I think there are a couple tests to determine if an sdql has feet
1 does it make sense in an average simple bettors mind or 10 of them really
2 did you run it against a few months, days of the week and complete seasons and was it still successful
if it passes both of those tests, I would say it is worth a look for sure
Just assume there is no value in anything ever would be the best way to approach sdql.
Does anyone else here live in Vegas?
Every time I drive anywhere and I turn on the radio, the song Careless Whisper, by George Michael is on, no matter what station the radio is on.
Is anyone else having that problem or just me?
Does anyone else here live in Vegas?
Every time I drive anywhere and I turn on the radio, the song Careless Whisper, by George Michael is on, no matter what station the radio is on.
Is anyone else having that problem or just me?
Comments
Ok I took some time and thought it over and I think that anything is possible. I still would like to know is this sdql with 1000 games rated and a 5.9% ROI anything special anyway?
I appreciate the advice and playing the value is great. I just wanted to clearly understand you so let me ask this you are saying that a line under 6.5 which means to me you got 2 really strong pitchers and in my mind creates a toss up that does not create value in the dog line since this is the scenario?
OT could you imagine how different this thread would be at CTG with all the sdql weenies there?
I ask you to please explain why this logic does not make sense and the sdql backs up the logic
Kershaw is a god dont count him and now take any other game where the total is under 6.5, does that not mean that you have 2 very tough pitchers and if you have 2 very tough pitchers I think it creates a toss up type scenario, my brain logic NOT sdql and now you take the sdql and it backs up that logic, does anyone agree with that? and when you talk about value of the line, the average line is +127 and it should be based in win loss % in that scenario closer to +114, does any of this make sense in anyway to anyone and if so or not why?
I think I explained to you in another post that it's been a loser the last 3+ years it just variance . The explanation is in your threads but unless someone agrees with you'll keep saying no explanation. So I'm going to pass on any future discussion on this subject but I wish you the best. Good Luck Pawn Shop, Yes I know who you are. How's the Pawn shop business?
thanks for the replies!
Rip is actually a ghost of the old poster Jafar.
He's messing with us by pretending to be dumb.
Cutter and I were talking about you last weekend. He said, "I could never understand how a guy that short got so many women"
You dated Miss Nevada for a while. Tell us some stories about that instead of this fake clown act.
I appreciate the post and what was the roi for each season and the total roi since the beginning of sdql in 2004?
1 does it make sense in an average simple bettors mind or 10 of them really
2 did you run it against a few months, days of the week and complete seasons and was it still successful
if it passes both of those tests, I would say it is worth a look for sure
looks at pitchers first off, looks at streaks, looks at team in last 5 games or so and looks at team vs the opponent and bet placed on what they see.
so i say you get some juice in the opposite of that
look at this info and tell me what you think
Team hits less than 250
line is heavyish favorite
opp team's starter era is pretty low
you can see how that could have value, you could see how your average Joe might not like that bet, the say man big favorite has not played well lately and the opp pitcher is pretty good, people shy away and that creates value in the line. that is the kind of sdql I like.
Around 9%.
who are you talking about what is his username?
Just assume there is no value in anything ever would be the best way to approach sdql.
Every time I drive anywhere and I turn on the radio, the song Careless Whisper, by George Michael is on, no matter what station the radio is on.
Is anyone else having that problem or just me?
Do you mean this song?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaoLU6zKaws