This could be an interesting race. 5F turf sprint. Hoping for a price for the start of my pick 4. Figure makers may have some problems with this race as making numbers off of Guns Loaded 6.5F downhill races at SA is tough. The public will stare at all the 1's in his PP's and see his early position and bet him. He may well be much the best and I won't leave him off my pick 4, but there are other interesting horses at prices in this race.
#4 Rocket Heat and the #10 Latent Revenge ran off in their last race, huge early fractions, while the #11 Something Extra followed close behind. The 4 and 10 both faded fast but the 11 finished strong. The #1 Power Alert and #2 Summation Time were also in that race. Summation time did his usual, got within range in the stretch and ran up and down. The #1 was never in it. The 4 will also be on my pick 4 as well as the 11, 8 Weast Hill and the 6. Spreading deep, hoping for a bomb. Going to toss the chaulk #7 Hootenanny.
The 6 ran the race I expected but he needed the 10 to challenge the pace. Once the 4 got an easy lead, it was over. A fast horse that isn't forced to blow his load early is dangerous. Pick 4 got a nice price and got another one with Majestic Harbor in the next race, but now I get a little crazy with my pick 4, have the 5,6,10,12 in the next leg. I'm taking a stand against Harmonize.
My pick 4 is alive to the #11 Rachel's Valentina(odds too low for a win play), the #12 Cathryn Sophia(surprised she is sitting at 8-1 right now) and then two longshots, one of which has turned into an outright bomb, the #4 Go Maggie Go(12-1 ML, currently 7-1, getting some play), and the #9 Paola Queen(ML 30-1, currently 77-1).
#12 Cathryn Sophia (if odds are 6-1)
# 4 Go Maggie Go (if odds go back up to 9-1)
Small play #9 Paola Queen
Lots of buzz on the 7 Jazzy Times. He has what I love to see out of a FTS and Baffert waited for today to break him out. Baffert is known to work his horses fast so despite his very solid workout rating, it is toward the slightly below avg work for a Baffert horse(see the #10 for that). Nevertheless, he still has a lot going for him. Too much talk for me though, odds will be too low in a race with other solid horses.
#1 Seeking the Soul
Small #3 Sicarius
I will be gone for the next few races(son's baseball practice), the only horse I feel comfortable posting without seeing any odds in the next couple races:
Race 5
#3 Allied Air Raid
Enough other horses in that race that will take money, his odds should hold ok.
I will have a "throwout" post later, similar to last year, modeling past Derby races to this one.
I did the same thing I did last year for the Derby, and modeled past winners with all my ratings to find key ratings and throwout numbers. It's a unique race, 20 horses, so there is more of a possibility for the best horse to just not get the trip needed to win the race. That being said, I did it a little different than last year, positive factors must have at least half the winners of the sample(11 years) and negative factors had to be no better than half the winning % of betting all the horses(approx 5.2% betting all horses). I also use anything under 2% in my throwout list. There were 4 positive factors that didn't include half the total horses, 19 negative with a good % of the sample.
Listed in order of net pos - neg
(Pos-Neg)
14. Mohaymen (3-0)
13. Nyquist (3-2) Barely fit both negatives
9. Destin (2-1)
17. Mor Spirit (2-1)
18. Majesto (2-3)
5. Gun Runner (1-2)
15. Outwork (0-1)
16. Shagaf (1-3)
20. Danzig Candy (0-2)
10. Whitmore (2-6)
19. Brodys Cause (1-6)
11. Exaggerator (0-5)
1. Trojan Nation (1-7)
7. Oscar Nominated (1-7)
8. Lani (0-6)
12. Tom's Ready (1-9)
2. Suddenbreakingnews (1-9)
4. Mo Tom (0-9)
6. My Man Sam(0-10)
3. Creator (0-11)
It is a quick way to weed down a 20 horse field. Now don't take all the negatives as a bad thing. I'm a bomb player and bombs are going to have some ugliness to them. Win or lose, I wouldn't want a win bet at 5-1 on Exaggerator but 33-1 on Whitmore wouldn't be awful(not saying I am doing that, just as an example, you can have some ugliness if you are going to be paid for it).
I was going to break down most of the throwout negatives, but looking thru the list, I realized most have to do with one thing, early speed, or lack of. With 20 horses running farther than they have ever gone before, position is important. Horses that are too slow early, have too much to overcome. Even if the pace is hot, almost all of the time, they have too much to do. It is much different than an 8 horse field with a hot pace. they may have 1 horse they need to beat that is just off the hot pace. In this race, you could have 6-8 sitting better than they are. The old Quirin speed points are still a decent number to use. It is a scale 0 to 8, 8 being always gets the lead, 0 being never up front. Horses that have a rating of 0-2 and 8 are 1-86 in the Derby the last 11 years. Why do I also include 8? Those horses usually wind up being sprinters later in the year. This is too far for them to go that fast, and again, there could be 6-8 horses sitting right off the pace ready to pounce. Two other ratings that intersect with that is the Run Style (Front,Early,Press,Sustain,Rally). S's and R's are the late comers, they are 1-55. Many overlap with the QP's from earlier. Another is my own personal rating that is based on early position and finish position. Horses who don't get at least 10 pts in that rating are 0-58 in the Derby. All 3 are based on early speed. The horses that fit one or more of these numbers are:
1. Trojan Nation
2. SuddenbreakingNews
3. Creator
4. Mo Tom
6. My Man Sam
10 Whitmore
12 Tom's Ready
15 Outwork
19 Brody's Cause
20 Danzing Candy
Half the horses wiped out there. Next is a class rating. Horses that don't meet a certain class number are 2-128 in the Derby the last 11 years. Of the remaining horses, this ratings knocks out the following:
8 Lani
18 Majesto
7 Oscar Nominated
Another rating is more of a threshold. 80% of the Derby runners reach the threshold. Those that don't are 0-43.
11 Exaggerator
The last throwout rating is a workout score. Horses who didnt get a work score of 41 or higher(although when it gets up to 46 and above it is more of a sign that the horse is a future sprinter), are 1-65. Of the horses still left, it affects one of them, sort of.
13 Nyquist.
I say sort of because Nyquist score was 40.98. My modeler uses integers so I think it rounds these numbers so he probably doesn't fit here.
After the throwouts, it leaves 5 horses(plus Nyquist).
Definitely some bombs to include on exotics. Speaking of exotics, I like to try to predict the big bomb pedigree horse who blows up the back end of the exotics. So far, I have gotten one right, Closing Argument a few years back. To fit, you have have to be a longshot(obviously) and a pedigree rating of 80 or better. The horses in this race with ratings 80+ are Nyquist(can't happen), Exaggerator(can't happen), Mo Tom(going to say no), 15 Outwork(my pick to blow up the exotic). Not quite fitting the pedigree but I think Majesto and Shagaf could do it as well. I think there is a good chance for a major hit this year.
Because a few of the negatives overlap with each other, I decided to make a spot play for the Derby like I do with my every day spot plays I use. I made one that had a play in 7 of the 11 races, won 5 of the races with 17 plays in those 7 races. It picked two horses for this year, #14 Moheymen and the #18 Majesto. I then decided to make one that had a pick in every race. For that one, it won 7 of the 11 races, had 29 plays in those 11 races. It played an extra horse per race on average and won 2 of the other 4 races. What was interesting about it was for this year, it didn't pick as many horses as the other spot play, only one horse, Moheymen. I like it, when people stop talking about you, it is usually a good thing.
StevieY
Senior Handicapper
Comments
#6 Alsvid
This could be an interesting race. 5F turf sprint. Hoping for a price for the start of my pick 4. Figure makers may have some problems with this race as making numbers off of Guns Loaded 6.5F downhill races at SA is tough. The public will stare at all the 1's in his PP's and see his early position and bet him. He may well be much the best and I won't leave him off my pick 4, but there are other interesting horses at prices in this race.
#4 Rocket Heat and the #10 Latent Revenge ran off in their last race, huge early fractions, while the #11 Something Extra followed close behind. The 4 and 10 both faded fast but the 11 finished strong. The #1 Power Alert and #2 Summation Time were also in that race. Summation time did his usual, got within range in the stretch and ran up and down. The #1 was never in it. The 4 will also be on my pick 4 as well as the 11, 8 Weast Hill and the 6. Spreading deep, hoping for a bomb. Going to toss the chaulk #7 Hootenanny.
The 6 ran the race I expected but he needed the 10 to challenge the pace. Once the 4 got an easy lead, it was over. A fast horse that isn't forced to blow his load early is dangerous. Pick 4 got a nice price and got another one with Majestic Harbor in the next race, but now I get a little crazy with my pick 4, have the 5,6,10,12 in the next leg. I'm taking a stand against Harmonize.
Race 10
Small play # 12 Adore.
My pick 4 is alive to the #11 Rachel's Valentina(odds too low for a win play), the #12 Cathryn Sophia(surprised she is sitting at 8-1 right now) and then two longshots, one of which has turned into an outright bomb, the #4 Go Maggie Go(12-1 ML, currently 7-1, getting some play), and the #9 Paola Queen(ML 30-1, currently 77-1).
#12 Cathryn Sophia (if odds are 6-1)
# 4 Go Maggie Go (if odds go back up to 9-1)
Small play #9 Paola Queen
#6 Will Did It
Lots of buzz on the 7 Jazzy Times. He has what I love to see out of a FTS and Baffert waited for today to break him out. Baffert is known to work his horses fast so despite his very solid workout rating, it is toward the slightly below avg work for a Baffert horse(see the #10 for that). Nevertheless, he still has a lot going for him. Too much talk for me though, odds will be too low in a race with other solid horses.
#1 Seeking the Soul
Small #3 Sicarius
I will be gone for the next few races(son's baseball practice), the only horse I feel comfortable posting without seeing any odds in the next couple races:
Race 5
#3 Allied Air Raid
Enough other horses in that race that will take money, his odds should hold ok.
I will have a "throwout" post later, similar to last year, modeling past Derby races to this one.
#7 Holy Boss
Listed in order of net pos - neg
(Pos-Neg)
14. Mohaymen (3-0)
13. Nyquist (3-2) Barely fit both negatives
9. Destin (2-1)
17. Mor Spirit (2-1)
18. Majesto (2-3)
5. Gun Runner (1-2)
15. Outwork (0-1)
16. Shagaf (1-3)
20. Danzig Candy (0-2)
10. Whitmore (2-6)
19. Brodys Cause (1-6)
11. Exaggerator (0-5)
1. Trojan Nation (1-7)
7. Oscar Nominated (1-7)
8. Lani (0-6)
12. Tom's Ready (1-9)
2. Suddenbreakingnews (1-9)
4. Mo Tom (0-9)
6. My Man Sam(0-10)
3. Creator (0-11)
It is a quick way to weed down a 20 horse field. Now don't take all the negatives as a bad thing. I'm a bomb player and bombs are going to have some ugliness to them. Win or lose, I wouldn't want a win bet at 5-1 on Exaggerator but 33-1 on Whitmore wouldn't be awful(not saying I am doing that, just as an example, you can have some ugliness if you are going to be paid for it).
I was going to break down most of the throwout negatives, but looking thru the list, I realized most have to do with one thing, early speed, or lack of. With 20 horses running farther than they have ever gone before, position is important. Horses that are too slow early, have too much to overcome. Even if the pace is hot, almost all of the time, they have too much to do. It is much different than an 8 horse field with a hot pace. they may have 1 horse they need to beat that is just off the hot pace. In this race, you could have 6-8 sitting better than they are. The old Quirin speed points are still a decent number to use. It is a scale 0 to 8, 8 being always gets the lead, 0 being never up front. Horses that have a rating of 0-2 and 8 are 1-86 in the Derby the last 11 years. Why do I also include 8? Those horses usually wind up being sprinters later in the year. This is too far for them to go that fast, and again, there could be 6-8 horses sitting right off the pace ready to pounce. Two other ratings that intersect with that is the Run Style (Front,Early,Press,Sustain,Rally). S's and R's are the late comers, they are 1-55. Many overlap with the QP's from earlier. Another is my own personal rating that is based on early position and finish position. Horses who don't get at least 10 pts in that rating are 0-58 in the Derby. All 3 are based on early speed. The horses that fit one or more of these numbers are:
1. Trojan Nation
2. SuddenbreakingNews
3. Creator
4. Mo Tom
6. My Man Sam
10 Whitmore
12 Tom's Ready
15 Outwork
19 Brody's Cause
20 Danzing Candy
Half the horses wiped out there. Next is a class rating. Horses that don't meet a certain class number are 2-128 in the Derby the last 11 years. Of the remaining horses, this ratings knocks out the following:
8 Lani
18 Majesto
7 Oscar Nominated
Another rating is more of a threshold. 80% of the Derby runners reach the threshold. Those that don't are 0-43.
11 Exaggerator
The last throwout rating is a workout score. Horses who didnt get a work score of 41 or higher(although when it gets up to 46 and above it is more of a sign that the horse is a future sprinter), are 1-65. Of the horses still left, it affects one of them, sort of.
13 Nyquist.
I say sort of because Nyquist score was 40.98. My modeler uses integers so I think it rounds these numbers so he probably doesn't fit here.
After the throwouts, it leaves 5 horses(plus Nyquist).
5 Gun Runner
9 Destin
14 Moheymen
16 Shagaf
17 Mor Spirit
Definitely some bombs to include on exotics. Speaking of exotics, I like to try to predict the big bomb pedigree horse who blows up the back end of the exotics. So far, I have gotten one right, Closing Argument a few years back. To fit, you have have to be a longshot(obviously) and a pedigree rating of 80 or better. The horses in this race with ratings 80+ are Nyquist(can't happen), Exaggerator(can't happen), Mo Tom(going to say no), 15 Outwork(my pick to blow up the exotic). Not quite fitting the pedigree but I think Majesto and Shagaf could do it as well. I think there is a good chance for a major hit this year.
Because a few of the negatives overlap with each other, I decided to make a spot play for the Derby like I do with my every day spot plays I use. I made one that had a play in 7 of the 11 races, won 5 of the races with 17 plays in those 7 races. It picked two horses for this year, #14 Moheymen and the #18 Majesto. I then decided to make one that had a pick in every race. For that one, it won 7 of the 11 races, had 29 plays in those 11 races. It played an extra horse per race on average and won 2 of the other 4 races. What was interesting about it was for this year, it didn't pick as many horses as the other spot play, only one horse, Moheymen. I like it, when people stop talking about you, it is usually a good thing.
So, after all that,
KY Derby
# 14 Moheymen
Small play #18 Majesto