I think I may be the mush when I pay
ugadawgs7769
Senior Member
Sorry for taking up space but wanted to vent somewhere I guess. Nothing personal, I never believed in luck/karma or any of the such but if anyone wanted to make a case for a mush I could be your poster child. I guess lucky for Dr H as he was going to be my next purchase
My only two years subscribing to Sixth Sense were
2012/2013: -23 units
2013/2014: -10 units
Buffettgambler Baseball
2014: -60 units
Stevie Y All Sports:
2013: -9 units
2014: -7 units
2015 to now: -34 units and no idea what future holds
-143 units overall. At start had a decent bankroll never went nuts chasing. Now basically starting from scratch again after a bad few years.
My only two years subscribing to Sixth Sense were
2012/2013: -23 units
2013/2014: -10 units
Buffettgambler Baseball
2014: -60 units
Stevie Y All Sports:
2013: -9 units
2014: -7 units
2015 to now: -34 units and no idea what future holds
-143 units overall. At start had a decent bankroll never went nuts chasing. Now basically starting from scratch again after a bad few years.
Comments
You haven't seen fucked until you seen my winter.
Yeah, definitely been some rough ones. Maybe turns around going forward (starting tomorrow)
I check every morning to see how your doing. But I don't follow how/if you've been fucked. But I believe you.
Last week or so has been beyond explainable for me. Haven't even lost much but should of won a bunch. Brutal
Hopefully you have followed BG on the forum..I believe he is in the positive on his posted plays.
All decent numbers are knocked out by low limit overnights. Anyone with an edge, and having enough decent outs, is taking those numbers off the board. End of game situations are inept. Both by coaches and players who cant execute basic fundamental skills. Its maddening at times. Most times it looks like NFL coach Andy Reid has taught all these college coaches clock his management skills. They cant figure out 2 for 1 possessions or design anything other than a 24 ft. prayer with the shot clock winding down.
Even if you bust your ass, which I do, and have ahead of the market information, which I do, Its still extremely hard to comprehend certain games.
I had last minute information on Marists best player being out tonight. (About 3-5 minutes before it hit twitter/line services). I beat the line move. I bet Fairfield -8/8.5, it closed -11. I thought it actually should have gone even higher. I had that particular player worth between 4-5 points to the line. He scores 20 a night and by far the teams best all-around player. Well my bet had ZERO chance of cashing the whole game, NONE. Fairfield playing in front of, what looked like, about 500 fans needed about 38 minutes just secure a couple point win. They could care less tonight. Good bet I thought. My pre-game ranking was good. My line was good. Terrible result.
Im just learning to take the nightly unpredictability in certain situations that go against me and move on. If you dont you end up driving yourself nuts. Plus, no one gives a shit about anyones particular bad beat story every night. Because it happens every night usually multiple times. Whether you are playing a 1H, 2H, side, total, in-game. 1-2 points either way sometimes turns a 5-2 night into 2-5.
Expecting 18-22 years old kids to do anything predictable is a flawed premise from the start. Good news however, the games start in less than 20 hours to do it all over again.
Lol, I feel fortunate for sure. Still irritated about this week just cause the plays were sooo strong and we got so fucked. But yes, it's been super solid so far. I wonder if they are struggling on full game stuff or if they are winning?
You watch episode 5 of "Billions" on Showtime?
Glad to see your happy Golfer, because a mad Golfer can cause earth quakes on message board
I hear ya. Late game bad beats, especially in college sports, have never really bothered me. +4.5, up 9 with 2:20 left. Next thing you know you are at the line with 6 sec left down 3. You miss both, foul, and lose by 5. -2.5, up 5 opp misses a 3, gets the rebound, misses a 3, gets the rebound, hits a 3, and fouls you, you miss a FT, win by 2. Happens in the pro sports too, under 5.5, 12 minutes left, 1-0. Final score 5-2(the only empty net goal was the last one which was meaningless). All brutal, all have happened to me recently, shit happens. If that 's what it takes to lose, keep getting on those sides of games and you will be fine. That's the way I have always thought and I still do.
I know most people use CLV on here to determine their bet strength and most people here know I don't. I never really talked about what I use to determine the expectations of my bets. For BB, I use the % chance the bet will win based on the halftime score. Whether you agree with CLV or not, if you believe in the correlation between 1st half results and game results, then you know there should be some correlation with this. For hockey I use the expected goals based on shot attempt data. They both give a very good estimate of what your record should be. It can warn you if you very lucky, it can show you when you were very unlucky, and it can show you when the results are expected(which happens more so than not as people usually forget when they were lucky). My CBB results:
5 years ago +13.10 units actual, +13.6 expected
4 years ago +37.90 units actual, +32.2 expected
3 years ago +20.20 units actual, +18.8 expected
2 years ago + 1.50 units actual, + 7.3 expected
1 years ago - 1.60 units actual, - 2.3 expected.
Total + 71.1 units actual, +69.6 units expected.
I'm pretty much where I should be. I had it set up to show the results when the season ended but last year, my totals were so bad and seemed dead in the water from the beginning and my sides were so good and seemed like easy wins, I set it up to show me during the year how I was doing. It showed me that my totals were indeed brutal(41.1% act, 41.2% exp) and my sides were indeed good(56.3% act, 56.0% exp). It's a good indicator of what your record should be. This year:
-25.0 units actual, +2.6 units expected. Now 2.6 units isn't anything to be excited about but I'd take it right now. Brutal.
If you played the 1st half line on every game I released, you would be 124-97-5 +17.3 units.
Now, when you have a season like that, it's not fun but at least it is just one sport right? wrong. As bad as those numbers look, the NHL has been just as bad.
4 years ago + 4.70 units actual, + 7.10 units expected
3 years ago +25.39 units actual, +23.3 units expected
2 years ago -12.05 units actual, - 8.60 units expected
1 year ago +14.60 units actual, +12.80 units expected
Total +32.64 units actual, +34.6 units expected
Again, very close actual to expected results. There are about 19 games a year where one team has a 1.5 exp goal adv on their opp. There is no rhyme or reason, you can't predict them because they aren't the games you would think. On avg, those teams go 17.8-1.6 each year with no year where more than 3 lost. Those previous 4 years, I was 8-1 in those games, pretty much what I should be. You will see why I mentioned those games. This year:
-10.18 units(heading to -11.18 in about 10 minutes) actual, +17.4 units expected(probably mid 16's after tonight). At the all-star break it was +19.6, post break hasn't been good actual or expected.
Two sports at the same time that never had any major actual/expected result fluctuations both about 28 units different? Oh, and those games I mentioned above, we have been lucky enough to be on the good side of 6 of them this year. Our record? 0-6. Overall, those games are 8-7 this year(we also happened to be on the other side of the 7th loss).
I know in the end the only thing that matters is winning. As a player, the short term is what matters so runs like this are awful. As a capper, you are looking more long term so you look as much at the expected results. Football, the CLV was improving but the expected results were falling apart, I knew I had to start over from scratch and wasn't going to be ready for this season or even thought I wanted to bother with football so that's why I didnt do it. Hockey wise, pre-all star break , I wouldn't have changed a thing. Post-AS has been bad so I have to right the ship there. Tonight, the hockey games were awful. Those bother me more than the bad beats. CBB, I've really liked my total, exp record is 47.7-37.3, sides have been disappointing, but the exp record is 69.3-66.7, not good but a far cry from the actual shit. One of those seasons alone is rough, two can test you.
I started right after the big positives 3 years ago. My mush powers are strong.
I thought Stevie was going win tonight, but I can't complain about 2-2. Just trying to think positive and we hope we can start winning back some units.
OT's have not been kind to us either. The only thing that has been normal is we are 18-12 with -1 CLV or worse, love those - CLV games.
Sportsinsights
Does make it easier to win when they release after steam with old lines and when games have started.
lol. thank you. if you have bet sports long enough, we have all been there. hang tough
No, I have been playing Stevie in nhl and college bball...
I'm in on the hockey to since the start.
Had the lead in the 3rd period in a lot of games. We are 4-7 in those games this month, hasn't really mattered if we have an advantage or not.
So far this month:
By the shot data:
Our team dominated(or our total side dominated) 7-3
Our team controlled the game flow 1-3
Opp dominated(other total side dominated) 0-8
Opp controlled the game flow 0-1
0-11-1 in coinflip games(the push was impossible to lose, 2-2 3rd per of an over 5 so it was the worst possible outcome)
0-6 in OT, current 0-7 run, last OT win Jan 16th. 4 of the OT's were coinflip games, the other 2 we controlled(not dominated) the game flow.
So adding all that up, if we dominate the game flow, we are 7-3 this month. if we don't dominate the game, we are 1-23-1. Now if the results were around average, we would still be down about 4 units this month, but I'd take -4 units, that drops the expected results from +19.6 at the all-star break to -14.9.
However, yesterday was the 2nd day since sometime in December that we outperformed expected results in CBB. Baby steps.
Are you serious? There was one game this year that had an issue due to an odd start time (Friday at 1pm).
In games decided by...
1 pt or less: 7-14, -8.4 units
1.5 or 2: 8-15, -8.5 units
2.5 or 3: 8-13, -6.3 units
decided by 3.5 or more (more than a basket): 190-165, 53.5%, +8.5 units
decided by 3 or less (a basket or less): 23-42, 35.4%, -23.2 units
If we run 50/50 on the games that are decided by a random basket in the end game, we are up about 5 units this year. Not anything outstanding, but a damn far cry from the current -15.
That should say "but I'd take -4 units, that drops the expected results from +19.6 at the all-star break to +14.9."
Don't know about SportsInsights college, the NBA selections are at WA lines that you can get the number, 57% or so at the All-Star break. GL