Betting Talk

Week 13 NFL

DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
edited September 2016 in Sports Betting
I've been working on this for the season, thought I'd share my plays for ROS. All plays are 1 unit unless specified. Goodluck.

DET +2.5 -110

Seattle pk -110

BAL +4 -115

NYJ -2 -110 (2 units)

Denver -3.5 -100 (2 units)

Dallas +4.5 -110 (2 units)

Jax +2.5 -110

SF +7.5 -115

HOU +3 -110

Comments

  • CirclejerkCirclejerk Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Hey D$- I'm with you on Det. & Denv.
    Thanks for posting.
    Good Luck!
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Yuck. Hope you teased them. Sorry for the shit play on DET...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Strange how nfl handicapping is, you found advantages in all those plays , its hard for me to find one or two...

    good luck
  • coachcoach Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    that was a good play,,,it should payed off!!
  • CirclejerkCirclejerk Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    DeadMoney wrote: »
    Yuck. Hope you teased them. Sorry for the shit play on DET...

    No need to apologize. IMHO that was a solid play & a solid weekend so far. More nice CLV tonight.
    Thanks for posting & good luck tonight.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    1 Unit plays: 3-3 (-.3 Units)
    2 Unit plays: 2-0 (+4 Units) (One pending)
    Total: 5-3 (+3.7 Units) (One Pending)

    Quick notes:

    Of my losses I am obviously most upset about DET. The Texans and Jags both had a shot and were near misses.

    For my wins:
    The Jets should have probably lost that game but Tom Coughlin is a crazy bad coach for the success he has had in the league. (Went for a 4th and 2 while up 10 pretty late, allowing an overtime opportunity for the Jets cover. Thanks Tom!) The return TD for the Giants really jeopardized our chances in this one as well.

    I was very pleased with the rest of my wins as the Defenses for all of those squads dominated.

    While I don't know how much I like teasers, there would have been some spots this week crossing some key numbers with all three of those losses, particularly the Jags, I'll stick to the straight plays anyway.

    Now we need the Matt Cassel led Cowboys for a very good week of 66% or we will settle for a 55% week if he shits the bed.

    For those who care, it is still a two unit play at -3.5 or better, one unit all the way down to +1.

    Goodluck.
  • CirclejerkCirclejerk Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    I know you crushed player props last season. Are you going to be posting any props this year? I know the limits are low but every little bit helps, especially if you have several outs.
    oh ya BTW typo in post #7. Dallas is plus…
    Thanks again.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    1 Unit plays: 3-3 (-.3 Units)
    2 Unit plays: 3-0 (+6 Units)
    Total: 6-3 (+5.7 Units)

    Here's some early stuff for Week 14, I'm just going to keep posting in here rather than starting a new thread every week.

    AZ -7 -120

    Pitt +3 +100 (2 Units)

    SD +10 -105 (2 Units)

    Good luck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Circlejerk wrote: »
    Are you going to be posting any props this year?
    oh ya BTW typo in post #7. Dallas is plus…
    Thanks again.

    I might share one once in a while, but most times I just do those super small for a rooting interest, nothing I'd be comfortable recommending.

    Yeah I noticed that once it was too late. Didn't think it was worth correcting in a separate post.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    DeadMoney wrote: »

    Here's some early stuff for Week 14, I'm just going to keep posting in here rather than starting a new thread every week.

    AZ -7 -120

    Pitt +3 +100 (2 Units)

    SD +10 -105 (2 Units)

    adding:

    TB -3.5-105

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    adding:

    Jags PK -110

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    adding:

    MIA +2 -110

    ATL +8 -110

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    1 Unit plays: 4-7 (-3.75 Units)
    2 Unit plays: 5-0 (+10 Units)
    Total: 9-7 (+6.25 Units)
    Unweighted record: (+1.25 Units)

    I beat the close most of the time for Week 14:

    +2 on Pittsburgh
    +2.5 on TB
    +3 on AZ
    +1 on Jax

    0 on MIA

    -.5 to -1 on ATL
    -1 to -3 on SD

    Just some losses I suppose. The model always underrates the Panthers so I should have thrown out the Falcons, in hindsight. The model loved SD but I got a really bad number here, even though it won.

    My totals for week 14 are: (1-4) for my one unit and (2-0) for my 2 unit. (42.86 win pct for week 14). At least the 2 unit plays won to bag a +.55 unit profit. The unweighted record took a -1.45 unit hit.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Week 15:

    317 AZ -3 -120 (2 Units)

    305 CHI +5.5 (2 Units)

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Adding

    327 DEN +7 -115
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    adding:

    309 HOU +2 -110

    goodluck.
  • Dave MasonDave Mason Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    on it. gl
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    adding:

    331 DET +3 -115

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Season through Week 15:

    1 Unit plays: 6-7-1 (-1.75 Units)
    2 Unit plays: 6-1 (+9.8 Units)
    Total: 12-8-1 (+8.05 Units)
    Unweighted record: (+3.15 Units)

    This week:
    3-1-1 Overall (75% win rate)
    2-0-1 for 1 Unit
    1-1 for 2 Unit.

    Unfortunately, the Bears got crushed and that was the first 2 unit loss of the season, limiting the gain on the week to +1.8 Units.

    Unweighted record did slightly better as it got a +1.9 unit boost.

    The CLV this week was just okay.
    Beat the close on 3/5 plays.

    Chi +1.5
    Det +.5 to +1
    AZ +.5

    Market loved the Bears play the most, but it didn't matter. They got crushed, at least AZ and DET were solid wins.

    HOU -.5
    Den -.5

    Both Denver and Houston moved with me after I got them posted, then spiked all the way past my number before kick, making my number a half point bad in both cases. It really ended up costing me in the Denver game as +7.5 would have been a winner, didn't matter in Houston as they won outright.

    Should be posting some Week 16 stuff soon.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Week 16:

    115 SF +9 -110

    117 CLE +12.5 -110 (2 Units)
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    adding

    111 DAL +6 (2 units)

    was hoping for 7 but it doesn't look like it will go there, I'll take the 6.

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    adding:

    103 WAS +3 -110

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Kirk Cousins is not helping our cause with the kneel down before half. That was a new one I haven't seen before..
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    adding:

    126 AZ -4.5 -105

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    adding:

    113 Jax +3 -120

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    adding:

    109 Car -6.5 -103

    goodluck.
  • DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    1 Unit plays: 8-10-1 (-3.08 Units)
    2 Unit plays: 7-2 (+9.6 Units)
    Total Weighted record: 15-12-1 (+6.52 Units)
    Unweighted record:15-12-1 (+3.15 Units)
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