I have it at 42 using last years stats and Denver's offense is way worse and defense probably better.
It's getting resistance at 41.5,
But Denver only scored 19 points yesterday, of which 6 came on FG's of 56 and 57 yards and another 6 on an INT. Couple that weak OL of Denver with a very good defense and it wouldn't surprise me if big money will come in on the under on Thursday just before gametime.
Regular season:
YTD-u: 4-5-0 for -1.60 units
YTD-w: 4-7-0 for -3.60 units
(avg clv +1.07, 1 moved against, 2 stayed put, 4 moved my direction)
Sitting on a shitload of line value for week 2 already. All 4 current releases moved my way.
Won't do this for every release, won't do this every week, but here's my analysis of the value for the TNF game:
Thursday Night Football: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
- Early line released before the season: Denver -1.
- Sunday opener: KC -1.5 with an O/U of 46.
Analysis of Kansas City:
- They performed very well vs a stout defensive Houston front. Andy Reid deployed all kinds of plays and really went into his arsenal. He had Alex Smith run a couple of read option plays, but also split 3 receivers wide and went for the deep bomb. In the first half, the ball was fairly distributed over his TE's, RB's and WR's, with Smith also gaining a couple of first downs on designed runs. Especially in the first half, Houston had trouble defending the quick releases. It was all part of Reid's plan. Smith had to release the ball before the Houston pass-rush could get to him. This meant mostly 3-step and 5-step drops, with the aforementioned read/option plays mixed in. Smith's release time was well under 2.5 seconds.
In the second half, sitting on a 3 possession lead, they mostly went for rush plays, as to bleed the clock and shorten the game. It was also Houston's 2nd half adjustments that kept KC from scoring. They sent less rushers and kept more players back to clog the lanes. The easy gains for Charles and Davis were gone. No more dump-offs from Smith to his RB's in the flat.
-While it was a solid win by Kansas City, their life was made easy by 2 Houston turnovers in their own Red Zone. Both led to TD's for KC as they had to march less than 20 yards on both of them. The Chiefs actually only scored 13 points on long drives. Kind of a low number knowing that a much better defense is coming to town this Thursday.
- KC's special teams unit was consistently able to pin Houston deep back into their own territory. This is an excellent unit.
Analysis of Denver:
- Part of the reason why the look-ahead line was Denver -1 and the real opening line swung to KC -1.5 is the concern over Manning's arm strength. The losses and subsequently weakening of his offensive line isn't helping matters either. As I re-watched the game, it was very obvious that Manning is in trouble. He's putting up more wobblers than before, and as he's using he's his full body to get some zip on the passes (legs + torso) he's also telegraphing the plays. Demaryius Thomas is still an elite talent and will get separation from average backs, but the pinpoint 'manning-accuracy' wasn't there in their game vs Baltimore. Because it's a short week for them, I don't see him fixing this quickly enough.....if it's fixable at all at his age.
-Denver's defense was better than advertised and held the Ravens to 6 offensive points. As the game is played in the loudest stadium of the NFL, I believe Manning will have trouble with his cadence and the weak offensive line. I'm expecting more false-starts that will help KC kill Denver drives. It's a pretty green Offensive Line he has in front of him. Denver itself scored 12 points on offense (4 FG's), but 2 of those were 56 and 57 yard makes by McManus. I don't think Denver will try from the same distance as they're not playing in thin air. This would mean more punts. If they do try, there's a higher probability of him missing some of the long tries. So far the weather outlook has the chance of rain at 20% and the humidity at 66%. With windgusts up to 23 mph, not even the extra-points are a gimme. (if they score any TD's)
Line-analysis:
The opener was quickly bet to KC -3 form -1.5. It's getting heavily juiced right now as the books don't want to give the hook on what looks to be a lowscoring affair. The probability of a FG deciding the game is very high, as they've been taking a whole lot of money on the under.
I mentioned before the weekend that I was expecting a low scoring affair and also a low line. Some-how the books opened the line at 46 and it got pounded down, before settling at 41.5, 42. I firmly believe there will be more money coming in on the under. Both these defenses are too good for a 41.5. Especially with all the trouble the offenses have. (KC didn't score in the 2nd half).
Only thing that can kill this under is a bunch of pick-six's and special team TD's.
Adding another unit at:
DEN/KC U41.5
Grab the 42 at 5Dimes.
Obi-One, you are my only hope on the game tonight. Thanks for the write-up. Agree with you on the under for tonight, 42 at bookmaker right now. I am passing on the side based on the -3, -120... but I do have a half unit wager on a teaser with KC and under. Nice grab on the early lines there, also with Ten getting points. I think TEN overs will have some value early this season as well. Good luck this week.
Sitting on a shitload of clv for the 3rd straight week. Only 1 moved against me, 1 stayed put and 6 moved my way. Let's see what this week brings, already 0-1 after Washington diarrea.
Sitting on a shitload of clv for the 3rd straight week. Only 1 moved against me, 1 stayed put and 6 moved my way. Let's see what this week brings, already 0-1 after Washington diarrea.
6-2 a much better result, Next weeks picks coming up in a bit, numbers opening right now
WK4 results:
u: 7-5-1 for +1.35 units
w: 7-5-1 for +1.35 units
(avg clv: +0.67, 3 moved against, 1 stayed put, 5 moved my way)
*did not take the 2H plays into consideration for my clv.
**misread only 2 games (BUF and ARI). All others that lost were close. 1 call or 1 play away from covering.
YTD results:
u: 21 - 18 - 1 for +0.90 units
w: 21- 23 - 1 for -5.20 units
(avg clv +0.85, 6 moved against, 7 stayed put, 21 moved my direction)
Pending for WK5:
463 STL +10
474 SF/NYG U43
Adding:
458 ATL -7
- The additions on the ATL OL are working out fine. Too many holes in Washington secondary.
Waiting for:
466 CIN at -2 or better. Seahawks going to get crushed.
451 JAX +3 (-115)
- Mostly based on Jacksonville playing conservative but mistake-free football. Even if Tampa Bay (with Jameis Winston) plays a mistake free game, I like Jacksonville's chances here to perform better.
455 CLE +7 (-120)
- The battle around the 7 is going to continue. It's been a back and forth so far. Taking Cleveland at -120 now. This figures to be a lowscoring game, with 2 teams mostly reliant on the run game. Cleveland has a solid offensive line and I think they can beat Baltimore outright.
Hope to have winners this time, now that numbers have grown stronger on the season. These are my teasers, nonconventional as they may seem, sorry to the sharper guys for that. Also sorry for posting this late at night. Hope everybody can get the same numbers in the morning.
6-point teasers:
- JAX +9 with CLE +13
- CIN +3 with ATL -1
- ARI +3 with PHI PK
- CIN +3 with ARI +3
- JAX +9 with ATL -1
459 CHI/ KC O44.5
- I would prefer a 44 but I don't see the number getting there.
On the news that Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal are most probably benchwarmers in today's games, the line has been coming down. Still maintaining my position. KC is not a shutdown defense, even though their pass-rush is one of the best. Chicago has been hanging though with most teams they played as long as Cutler is in the game.
Going against the market like a boss! You've been warned haha
Comments
It's getting resistance at 41.5,
But Denver only scored 19 points yesterday, of which 6 came on FG's of 56 and 57 yards and another 6 on an INT. Couple that weak OL of Denver with a very good defense and it wouldn't surprise me if big money will come in on the under on Thursday just before gametime.
YTD-u: 4-5-0 for -1.60 units
YTD-w: 4-7-0 for -3.60 units
(avg clv +1.07, 1 moved against, 2 stayed put, 4 moved my direction)
Sitting on a shitload of line value for week 2 already. All 4 current releases moved my way.
Won't do this for every release, won't do this every week, but here's my analysis of the value for the TNF game:
Thursday Night Football:
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
- Early line released before the season: Denver -1.
- Sunday opener: KC -1.5 with an O/U of 46.
Analysis of Kansas City:
- They performed very well vs a stout defensive Houston front. Andy Reid deployed all kinds of plays and really went into his arsenal. He had Alex Smith run a couple of read option plays, but also split 3 receivers wide and went for the deep bomb. In the first half, the ball was fairly distributed over his TE's, RB's and WR's, with Smith also gaining a couple of first downs on designed runs. Especially in the first half, Houston had trouble defending the quick releases. It was all part of Reid's plan. Smith had to release the ball before the Houston pass-rush could get to him. This meant mostly 3-step and 5-step drops, with the aforementioned read/option plays mixed in. Smith's release time was well under 2.5 seconds.
In the second half, sitting on a 3 possession lead, they mostly went for rush plays, as to bleed the clock and shorten the game. It was also Houston's 2nd half adjustments that kept KC from scoring. They sent less rushers and kept more players back to clog the lanes. The easy gains for Charles and Davis were gone. No more dump-offs from Smith to his RB's in the flat.
-While it was a solid win by Kansas City, their life was made easy by 2 Houston turnovers in their own Red Zone. Both led to TD's for KC as they had to march less than 20 yards on both of them. The Chiefs actually only scored 13 points on long drives. Kind of a low number knowing that a much better defense is coming to town this Thursday.
- KC's special teams unit was consistently able to pin Houston deep back into their own territory. This is an excellent unit.
Analysis of Denver:
- Part of the reason why the look-ahead line was Denver -1 and the real opening line swung to KC -1.5 is the concern over Manning's arm strength. The losses and subsequently weakening of his offensive line isn't helping matters either. As I re-watched the game, it was very obvious that Manning is in trouble. He's putting up more wobblers than before, and as he's using he's his full body to get some zip on the passes (legs + torso) he's also telegraphing the plays. Demaryius Thomas is still an elite talent and will get separation from average backs, but the pinpoint 'manning-accuracy' wasn't there in their game vs Baltimore. Because it's a short week for them, I don't see him fixing this quickly enough.....if it's fixable at all at his age.
-Denver's defense was better than advertised and held the Ravens to 6 offensive points. As the game is played in the loudest stadium of the NFL, I believe Manning will have trouble with his cadence and the weak offensive line. I'm expecting more false-starts that will help KC kill Denver drives. It's a pretty green Offensive Line he has in front of him. Denver itself scored 12 points on offense (4 FG's), but 2 of those were 56 and 57 yard makes by McManus. I don't think Denver will try from the same distance as they're not playing in thin air. This would mean more punts. If they do try, there's a higher probability of him missing some of the long tries. So far the weather outlook has the chance of rain at 20% and the humidity at 66%. With windgusts up to 23 mph, not even the extra-points are a gimme. (if they score any TD's)
Line-analysis:
The opener was quickly bet to KC -3 form -1.5. It's getting heavily juiced right now as the books don't want to give the hook on what looks to be a lowscoring affair. The probability of a FG deciding the game is very high, as they've been taking a whole lot of money on the under.
I mentioned before the weekend that I was expecting a low scoring affair and also a low line. Some-how the books opened the line at 46 and it got pounded down, before settling at 41.5, 42. I firmly believe there will be more money coming in on the under. Both these defenses are too good for a 41.5. Especially with all the trouble the offenses have. (KC didn't score in the 2nd half).
Only thing that can kill this under is a bunch of pick-six's and special team TD's.
Adding another unit at:
DEN/KC U41.5
Grab the 42 at 5Dimes.
279 ATL +2.5 vs NYG
264 NO -9 vs TB
277 STL -3 vs WSH -125
6-point teasers:
SF +11.5 with DET +8.5
CHI +7.5 with ATL +8.5
MIA PK with PHI -0.5
301 WSH +4
461 PIT -1.5
473 CIN +3
482 ARI -6.5
485 BUF +3 -115
471 JAX/ NE O47
481 SF/ ARI O43.5
461 PIT/ STL O47
6-2 a much better result, Next weeks picks coming up in a bit, numbers opening right now
NFL WK4:
102 BAL/PIT U44.5 (TNF)
253 JAX +9
260 BUF -6
ARI -6.5
261 OAK -2
277 DET +9.5
278 DET/SEA U43
1490 GB -3 1H (-115)
490 KC/GB O47.5
unweighted 2-6 for -4.65 units
weighted 2-9 for -8.75 units
(0 moved against me, 2 stayed put, 6 moved my way for 0.875 clv)
WK3 results:
unweighted 8-2 for +5.8 units
weighted 8-2 for +5.8 units
(2 moved against me, 2 stayed put, 6 moved my way for 0.85 clv)
YTD results:
u: 14-13-0 for -0.45 units
w: 14-18-0 for -6.55 units
(avg clv +0.92, 3 moved against, 6 stayed put, 16 moved my direction)
Pending for WK4
102 BAL/PIT U44.5 (TNF)
253 JAX +9
260 BUF -6
261 OAK -2
274 ARI -6.5
277 DET +9.5
278 DET/SEA U43
257 CAR -3 (-120)
263 PHI -3 (-125)
272 MIN/DEN U43
2263 PHI -4 (-115)
2265 KC/CIN O23 (-115)
463 STL +10
474 SF/NYG U43
u: 7-5-1 for +1.35 units
w: 7-5-1 for +1.35 units
(avg clv: +0.67, 3 moved against, 1 stayed put, 5 moved my way)
*did not take the 2H plays into consideration for my clv.
**misread only 2 games (BUF and ARI). All others that lost were close. 1 call or 1 play away from covering.
YTD results:
u: 21 - 18 - 1 for +0.90 units
w: 21- 23 - 1 for -5.20 units
(avg clv +0.85, 6 moved against, 7 stayed put, 21 moved my direction)
Pending for WK5:
463 STL +10
474 SF/NYG U43
Adding:
458 ATL -7
- The additions on the ATL OL are working out fine. Too many holes in Washington secondary.
Waiting for:
466 CIN at -2 or better. Seahawks going to get crushed.
466 CIN -3 +100
459 CHI/ KC O44.5
- I would prefer a 44 but I don't see the number getting there.
467 ARI -2.5 -115
- Detroit came out of that match-up with Seattle well beat up. Arizona a top-5 team right now.
451 JAX +3 (-115)
- Mostly based on Jacksonville playing conservative but mistake-free football. Even if Tampa Bay (with Jameis Winston) plays a mistake free game, I like Jacksonville's chances here to perform better.
455 CLE +7 (-120)
- The battle around the 7 is going to continue. It's been a back and forth so far. Taking Cleveland at -120 now. This figures to be a lowscoring game, with 2 teams mostly reliant on the run game. Cleveland has a solid offensive line and I think they can beat Baltimore outright.
6-point teasers:
- JAX +9 with CLE +13
- CIN +3 with ATL -1
- ARI +3 with PHI PK
- CIN +3 with ARI +3
- JAX +9 with ATL -1
On the news that Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal are most probably benchwarmers in today's games, the line has been coming down. Still maintaining my position. KC is not a shutdown defense, even though their pass-rush is one of the best. Chicago has been hanging though with most teams they played as long as Cutler is in the game.
Going against the market like a boss! You've been warned haha