Betting Talk

NHL Futures (or what the hell are you guys waiting for)

homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
edited June 2015 in Sports Betting
I cannot recall a year when such an incredible amount of parity (seemingly) has created such juicy odds this late in the season. You all know how to shop for best numbers, but I just have some 5D here for illustration purposes, which has the NY Rangers as favorites to win the Cup at a spectacularly high +830.

Who isn't willing to lay down 1 or 2 Units total across 5 teams? We are not looking to hit it big here, just a grind out a profit. And I am stupid enough to label this free money.

Strike that.

That was too bold a claim.

I did lock up the following while hoping for better prices on 2 other teams.
Chi +900
Mon +1250
Pit +1450

As always, thoughts and insights and items offered for debate welcomed. GL all.

Comments

  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Homer, just looked at their hockey futures. Priced fairly compared to the rest of the goniffs out there. Future book with a hold less than 15%. Ain't bad.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    like rangers went to my 5d account and didnt see those odds
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    jets96 wrote: »
    like rangers went to my 5d account and didnt see those odds

    unsure what you saw or when you went. odds pretty much the same as when i posted, except the Rangers are getting hammered:

    New York Rangers +675
    Chicago Blackhawks +900
    New York Islanders +950
    Anaheim Ducks +950
    Minnesota Wild +1000
    Los Angeles Kings +1100
    St Louis Blues +1100
    Montreal Canadiens +1200
    Nashville Predators +1200
    Tampa Bay Lightning +1300
    Pittsburgh Penguins +1400
    Boston Bruins +1500
    Detroit Red Wings +1600
    Washington Capitals +3000
    Vancouver Canucks +3300
    Winnipeg Jets +5000
    Calgary Flames +5000
    San Jose Sharks +6000

    and i hit the Rangers 2 days later, on 3.16 as follows:
    3/16/15 7:03pm Pending 3/16/15 7:00pm Hockey NHL Stanley Cup 2014-2015 - New York Rangers +810

    blues were the other team i liked. hit them at +975. has since moved to +1100!!! bastards!!!

    with this thread, trying to convey that these numbers are out of whack (compare them to nba futures) if, and only if, you believe, as i do, that the nhl playoffs is not as wide open as 'experts' suggest it is.

    it simply isn't. when i can get the favorite where a .25 unit wager would return more than 2 units, i'm in. GL.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Sorry, wasnt taking about your picks, was just saying couldnt find the hockey futures when i logged onto my 5dimes account...i guess when i was looking they took them off the board for some reason.

    i did put a few bucks on rangers though

    luck
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    never an issue here jets..

    now that the season has gone final we can dig deeper into the logic (if any) behind the 5 choices, and if any would be dropped at this point. we should start with Benn winning 'scoring' title, a misnomer if there has ever been one as it the lowest point total to win in almost 50 years (save for strike/lockout seasons). now i am not a very smart man, but i am a student of history. so what can we learn from the last few years of Cup Finals.

    GAA of winners with most recent first:
    1, 1, 2, 1, 6, 17, 1, 7

    so with scoring at a near all time low, think such an indicator only gains in strength. defense may not win any more in the nfl but it sure as shit seems to in the NHL. and of course in our never ending pursuit to find additional insight we can toss another defensive category in there, the PK, again most recent first:
    3, 3, 1, 16, 4, 8, 8, 5

    of course one could debate correlation between PK and GAA, which would be fine. however our (my) main goal is to make sense of the seemingly wide open playoffs, eliminate some teams and build a portfolio that would carry a positive expected return. for simplicity's sake, will only highlight the five mentioned earlier in this thread with current odds as well
    format is as follows: GAA, PK, Team, Odds
    1, 7 Mon 1050
    2, 10 Chi 855
    3, 6 NYR 475 (kicked the shit out of that closer)
    5, 8 St L 720
    10, 3 Pit 1550

    only team in the top 10 GAA makes me nervous is those pesky Wild from Minnesota. however, the following would only be mutually exclusive to the western conference if anyone wanted to throw down a flyer or two for Wild to face following teams in finals:
    NYR +2650
    Mon +4500
    Pit +7400

    GL
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    oh look, we ground out another profit.

    the GAA of your past 5 Cup winners with most recent are now

    2
    1
    1
    2
    1

    feelin like the cris carter of BT now, all i do is win...
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