I am long overdue to update my record, will do so likely tomorrow (have been quite busy). It will no doubt reflect a continued difficult season. As for tonight, I rarely offer commentary per pick (again, I don't have time) but I believe the Packers are one of those teams that is either improving or worsening (in this case, improving) at such a speed that the books can't overly adjust fast enough. in GB's last four home games, they've gone 4-0 SU and ATS, winning by average score of 43-18. Granted, two of these 4 games include Panthers and Bears, not good teams, but other two include Eagles and Patriots, and anyone who watched NE/GB game knows GB dominated more than the 26-21 final indicated. Tonight they face a very bad Falcons team who has a dead-man-walking head coach and are off a good home win versus Cards where Falcons were in a good spot to win -- not the case tonight. NFL teams off a SU win as home dog and now are DD away dogs are 9-25 ATS. Infers the team is off an unexpected win at home but then takes to the road versus a much better opponent and usually doesn't show up. Add to the fact it's going to be cold (20s) and windy with possible snow at Lambeau and Falcons are a dome team (controlled temperature) who are 1-5 ATS on the road this season. Also, the GB defense has been VERY stingy at home, and the Falcons secondary is horrible (and we've seen Rodgers have good passing games in frigid weather).... And I'm just not sure if Falcons will play hard in the cold, on the road, for a coach that's all but gone.... Have to think GB scores at least 40, but more so I'm doubtful Falcons will score above 20....
Will include the -130 (though it won), and try to not ignore juice, but I'm sure I've counted even juice as -110 often.... tends to even out....
Since it won, the -130 doesn't come into play. When laying extra vig you risk however much to win 1u (in this case you would have recorded it as risking 1.3u to win 1u).
Saying "it tends to even out" doesn't excuse you from the record keeping guidelines. We have them for several reasons, one of which is to make records accurate, not "mostly accurate." Please make sure to include all juice that deviates from -110 in the future, per the guidelines. Thanks.
This season has been a struggle. I'm not going to run through the litany of bad-luck plays (right side, wrong outcome due to turnovers, etc.) that you may see elsewhere, but the Green Bay pick over Atlanta last Monday night seemed to sum up many such plays. I even did a rare write-up on the pick. I felt GB would score 40+ and Atlanta below 20. By halftime Green Bay was up by 31-7 margin, perfect. I figured in second half each side would score 14, with GB easing up on gas a bit, with a final of 45-21. Nope! The GB defense allowed Atlanta to score 30 points in 2nd half (!) as GB did ease up on offense. Ugh.
This was +7.5 -117 at Pinny and +7 -105 at BM at the time of post. it needs to be graded at either +7.5 -125 or +7 +100. Please pick one if you'd like the play to count. Thanks.
sosoangry
Senior Member
Comments
record:
NCAA: 66-61-3, -1.1 units unweighted, -23.9 weighted
NFL: 17-21-2, -6.1 units unweighted, -44.8 weighted
7 Texans +1.5
6 Jets +9
10 Raiders +13.5
8 Ravens -1.5
8 Jets +4
NCAA: 80-69-4, +4.1 units unweighted, +0.2 units weighted
NFL: 22-25-2, -5.5 units unweighted, -37.9 units weighted
that's it but might have a pick on IND/NE game, still working on....
5 Colts -3
record:
NCAA: 87-80-4, -1 unit unweighted, -29.7 units weighted
NFL: 22-28-3, -8.8 units unweighted, -59.9 units weighted
10 Vikings +7.5
10 Bucs +4
10 49ers -9.5
5 Ravens +3
5 Texans -6.5
9 Bengals -5.5
7 Saints +3.5
5 Falcons +2
6 Patriots +2.5
10 Chiefs -1
6 Browns +3
10 Texans -6.5
9 Giants -2.5
6 Lions -10.5
10 Jets +4
10 Chiefs -2.5
9 49ers -8
7 Seahawks -1
I am long overdue to update my record, will do so likely tomorrow (have been quite busy). It will no doubt reflect a continued difficult season. As for tonight, I rarely offer commentary per pick (again, I don't have time) but I believe the Packers are one of those teams that is either improving or worsening (in this case, improving) at such a speed that the books can't overly adjust fast enough. in GB's last four home games, they've gone 4-0 SU and ATS, winning by average score of 43-18. Granted, two of these 4 games include Panthers and Bears, not good teams, but other two include Eagles and Patriots, and anyone who watched NE/GB game knows GB dominated more than the 26-21 final indicated. Tonight they face a very bad Falcons team who has a dead-man-walking head coach and are off a good home win versus Cards where Falcons were in a good spot to win -- not the case tonight. NFL teams off a SU win as home dog and now are DD away dogs are 9-25 ATS. Infers the team is off an unexpected win at home but then takes to the road versus a much better opponent and usually doesn't show up. Add to the fact it's going to be cold (20s) and windy with possible snow at Lambeau and Falcons are a dome team (controlled temperature) who are 1-5 ATS on the road this season. Also, the GB defense has been VERY stingy at home, and the Falcons secondary is horrible (and we've seen Rodgers have good passing games in frigid weather).... And I'm just not sure if Falcons will play hard in the cold, on the road, for a coach that's all but gone.... Have to think GB scores at least 40, but more so I'm doubtful Falcons will score above 20....
9 Patriots -8.5
9 Bills +3
This needs to be graded at -130. Please make sure you are following the guidelines stickied at the top of the forum.
Have you been ignoring the juice all season?
Since it won, the -130 doesn't come into play. When laying extra vig you risk however much to win 1u (in this case you would have recorded it as risking 1.3u to win 1u).
Saying "it tends to even out" doesn't excuse you from the record keeping guidelines. We have them for several reasons, one of which is to make records accurate, not "mostly accurate." Please make sure to include all juice that deviates from -110 in the future, per the guidelines. Thanks.
37-41-3, -8.2 units unweighted, -74 weighted
This season has been a struggle. I'm not going to run through the litany of bad-luck plays (right side, wrong outcome due to turnovers, etc.) that you may see elsewhere, but the Green Bay pick over Atlanta last Monday night seemed to sum up many such plays. I even did a rare write-up on the pick. I felt GB would score 40+ and Atlanta below 20. By halftime Green Bay was up by 31-7 margin, perfect. I figured in second half each side would score 14, with GB easing up on gas a bit, with a final of 45-21. Nope! The GB defense allowed Atlanta to score 30 points in 2nd half (!) as GB did ease up on offense. Ugh.
I'll post NCAA record on my NCAA thread.
10 Chargers +1
This was +7.5 -117 at Pinny and +7 -105 at BM at the time of post. it needs to be graded at either +7.5 -125 or +7 +100. Please pick one if you'd like the play to count. Thanks.
6 Saints -6.5
6 Panthers -3.5
6 Cards +7.5
5 Panthers +3 -120
6 Giants -2 -105
10 Skins +3.5