New England @ Kansas City....Who Ya Got?
WynnBig
Senior Member
Have not done this in a while and these threads usually have great feedback.
--WynnBig
Leaning New England -2.5
--WynnBig
Leaning New England -2.5
Comments
small but important nugget: NE with a +5 turnover differential, while KC is at -5. New England is hugely overvalued in case the game ends up with a turnover differential of zero. Chances of NE actually getting more turnovers in this game are slim. Alex Smith has shown he can take good care of the ball. Besides, New England offensive line will have their hands full with the solid KC pass rush.
KC was the play for me at +3. At +2.5 I'd lay off.
You don't think turnover differential is accounted for by the market?
From the ATS numbers I have done research on, I have no reason to believe that the market is taking this into account sufficiently. Besides, the market cannot predict how many turnovers there will be in a game. What you can do as capper, is calculate what a team's efficiency would have been, had they had a turnover differential of zero. In that case, this line should have been KC -3. You could've had it at KC +4, But the market has pushed it down to +2.5. This current number is closer to the 'zero-turnover-line' but still not there. The market has more or less found it's equilibrium here. It's being balanced by the pro-New England bettors who believe that Revis and co. will continue creating turnovers, while Brady on the other hand doesn't make many mistakes, and the pro-KC bettors who believe that KC won't continue being prone to turnovers. At +3 I would still take a small flyer on KC, but I already have them at +9 in a teaser.
If you look at my thread, you'll notice that the 3 sides I lost on in week 3 and week 4, all had a -3 turnover differential or worse. SF with a blocked punt allowed for TD, a punt return for TD and a INT return for TD was absolutely the worst of them. As Philly had not shown much on defense before this game, It's just a bad coincidence to have all those things happen in the same half. It's all part of the game.
I'm seeing probable
70.5 Rushing Yards with the Under -125 doesn't sound to bad.
Charles (high ankle sprain) was inactive last week after totaling nine carries in the first two games but practiced on a limited basis Thursday.
If I remember right and of course it's not set in stone but if you didn't practice on Friday you usually don't play. Not saying he won't give it a go but a high ankle sprain is going to need a very large cortisone shot.
RJ Bell is on KC.......
Even a blind hog finds an acorn.
This is a blind hog chasing steam and trying to look smart doing it.