The downgrade by Morgan Stanley today was the impetus for the downdraft today...they are saying that the "scanner" numbers look like they are not what they thought they were going to be and reduced their target to $75 from $82....this play when I mentioned it was predicated more on the idea that Coke will eventually make a legitimate bid for MNST at some point due to Coke's slowing growth number's. Tomorrow Coke comes out with their earnings so should be interesting to see what their follow up comments are regarding their growth etc. ... I actually looked at picking some calls up today but it looks like they may get a tad cheaper with a test at support in the 63.00 area....if a break below 63 then there is a longer term trend line support in the 61.00 area. At this point GG, I would see how it reacts at those levels before cutting any losses, maybe put a stop in just under 60, but I still like the possible takeover play and still question Morgan Stanley on the downgrade....perhaps they were working as an advisor to talks between the two and know something else but that is purely a very loose speculation on my part...I would see how it plays out in the next day or two and how it reacts to those support areas. I like their newer product lines with the lower calorie and vitamin/anti oxidant lines...so think they will continue to be well received going forward IMO. Hope that helps some -R
Monster is up $16.00 to $87.00 after news coke will pay 2.15 billion for a 16% stake in MNST....GG I hope you held and put that stop in so you enjoy this home run!
Monster Beverage Corp (MNST :NASDAQ)
Real Time Stock Quote | Source: NASDAQ Real-Time Last Sale
Extended Hours 87.6499 USD
Last Trade
15.9999 (+22.33%)
After Hours Change
1,332,226
Volume
08/14/2014
After Hours
71.65 USD
Close Price
0.50 (+0.7%)
Change
646,078
Volume
08/14/2014
Nope like a dumbass I sold 2 days ago with my mnkd, was upset about that and not selling earlier so took a loss and sold everything. Think I am done with stock market, not enough patience and act to much on emotion and not knowing any better, I also bought SPXU many months ago and have been killed in it and have really no way to get out of it except hope the market does some correction to get out. Terrible timing on my part mainly due to not knowing what I am doing. Tried to hire manager once to do mine, but he had it a year + and the market was great and I broke even, so I took back to do on my own. Either way, lose is all I seem to do. Really appreciate all your info and support, I am just to stupid to do the right things to make $. Have a great week guys and thanks again Reb.
ATRS ...Don't know much about it either.... My friend works there in product development management. Seems to think they have a good pipeline of potential products. I was just curious if you or anyone else might have been following it at all. Im going to talk my buddy about it next time I see him and pick his brain. I'll let you know if I get anything good.
Caza-- trades on London & Toronto-- US symbol CAZFF
BTD,
What's your target both price and time frame on this?
Anybody that knows....
Also I have a general investing question. Do all trade platforms require a $25K balance to trade these low priced securities? Reason I'm asking is that I currently use Merrill Edge because I get 30 free trades a month but they require me to keep a $25K balance to trade the low/risky stocks.
Nope like a dumbass I sold 2 days ago with my mnkd, was upset about that and not selling earlier so took a loss and sold everything. Think I am done with stock market, not enough patience and act to much on emotion and not knowing any better, I also bought SPXU many months ago and have been killed in it and have really no way to get out of it except hope the market does some correction to get out. Terrible timing on my part mainly due to not knowing what I am doing. Tried to hire manager once to do mine, but he had it a year + and the market was great and I broke even, so I took back to do on my own. Either way, lose is all I seem to do. Really appreciate all your info and support, I am just to stupid to do the right things to make $. Have a great week guys and thanks again Reb.
GG, I feel you. I feel lost a bit with the stock market. I felt ike a fish amongst sharks and pretty much sold everything minus a few small stocks not worth selling at this point. I cashed out and have gotten my feet wet with buying life insurance settlements. If you're looking into invest, I'd suggest taking a look into those. I was pretty careful and got a little help/lucky and for somebody who isn't exactly the most knowledgable with stocks, its a fine alternative.
BTD,
What's your target both price and time frame on this?
Anybody that knows....
Also I have a general investing question. Do all trade platforms require a $25K balance to trade these low priced securities? Reason I'm asking is that I currently use Merrill Edge because I get 30 free trades a month but they require me to keep a $25K balance to trade the low/risky stocks.
Thanks
ChrisT-- Firstly, I use Scottrade, and they charge $8 a trade, even on these penny stocks. Some, like Merril add a $50 foreign stock fee-- which is out and out thievery. I would definitely get a discount broker for these little guys if you plan to trade them.
As for my target price-- I don't really have one. I will not buy one of these penny stocks if I don't feel it will at least triple. They are riskier, and therefore I look for a bigger profit. That said, you have to stay on top of all the news on these little ones, and constantly be reevaluating them. You may end up selling for a loss, or breaking even. But, the profits can be very nice. The time frame I look for is 1-2 years. But, I believe in the old saying "always take a profit on a quick rise". I usually buy 3 lots of a given stock-- one to sell when I get a triple, one to trade in and out of if the stock gets some good price swings, and the third lot is to hold for years and hope it's the one that goes from .25 to $20.
A recent example from my portfolio. I bought Sundance (SDCJF) about 4 years ago for .25-- it gradually moved up, and I sold some about a year later for $1.07. Seeing that the company was doing great things, I bought back my position for .46 and more at .55. Then 2 more years went by. The company was reporting good things, but nothing moves unless the word gets out. Finally, after sitting around the .80-.90 mark for the last year, people are starting to sit up and take notice. Yesterday it hit a new high of $1.32 (and I sold some at $1.30) I think this will be a $5 stock in next year or so, and if I wasn't in already, I'd be buying at anything around $1.25.
Check out the write-up on Caza at www.saadvisory.com. William has a great newsletter, and has picked many more huge winners than losers over the years. I've been following him since about 1985 or so.
ChrisT-- Firstly, I use Scottrade, and they charge $8 a trade, even on these penny stocks. Some, like Merril add a $50 foreign stock fee-- which is out and out thievery. I would definitely get a discount broker for these little guys if you plan to trade them.
As for my target price-- I don't really have one. I will not buy one of these penny stocks if I don't feel it will at least triple. They are riskier, and therefore I look for a bigger profit. That said, you have to stay on top of all the news on these little ones, and constantly be reevaluating them. You may end up selling for a loss, or breaking even. But, the profits can be very nice. The time frame I look for is 1-2 years. But, I believe in the old saying "always take a profit on a quick rise". I usually buy 3 lots of a given stock-- one to sell when I get a triple, one to trade in and out of if the stock gets some good price swings, and the third lot is to hold for years and hope it's the one that goes from .25 to $20.
A recent example from my portfolio. I bought Sundance (SDCJF) about 4 years ago for .25-- it gradually moved up, and I sold some about a year later for $1.07. Seeing that the company was doing great things, I bought back my position for .46 and more at .55. Then 2 more years went by. The company was reporting good things, but nothing moves unless the word gets out. Finally, after sitting around the .80-.90 mark for the last year, people are starting to sit up and take notice. Yesterday it hit a new high of $1.32 (and I sold some at $1.30) I think this will be a $5 stock in next year or so, and if I wasn't in already, I'd be buying at anything around $1.25.
Check out the write-up on Caza at www.saadvisory.com. William has a great newsletter, and has picked many more huge winners than losers over the years. I've been following him since about 1985 or so.
Good luck with your investing.
I appreciate the info BTD. I will look to take advantage of you 3 lot strategy and read up on saadvisory. I've been buying around $2K after I look into a suggestion you post on the board. I am currently holding 2K of lvlef & sdcjf and 6K of cazff (cazff bought today around 10AM). So thanks again for the info and of course I know this is all at my own risk. I mean this is a "betting talk" forum and not a "money grows on trees" forum.
I appreciate the info BTD. I will look to take advantage of you 3 lot strategy and read up on saadvisory. I've been buying around $2K after I look into a suggestion you post on the board. I am currently holding 2K of lvlef & sdcjf and 6K of cazff (cazff bought today around 10AM). So thanks again for the info and of course I know this is all at my own risk. I mean this is a "betting talk" forum and not a "money grows on trees" forum.
Money does indeed grow on trees-- it's just the harvesting part that's hard.
A buddy of mine has been in this one for awhile, will get his take on where they're at with their lead candidate
BTD, spoke with the guy I know that has been in it for awhile, fwiw he basically was not overly enthusiastic as it has been a long haul and he expects it to continue to be for the near future. He did say they have done a fair amount of dilution so he was not too overjoyed from that standpoint. Otherwise, they seem to be going the route of mixing it with other drugs for sort of a "chemo cocktail" and supposedly have shown decent results with the combination. I had been in it for about six mos. but decided there were better options out there such as (obviously still MNKD) along with INO among others...currently watching the market retest the highs with my finger on the trigger for another leg down play...waiting to see how tomorrow plays out on the weekly charts, today's volume on the barely squeeked out new high was nothing to write home about whatsoever. GL
Hey Reb, I just spoke to a friend of mine who's real high on KERX with a Sept approval date coming up. I've checked this stock out in the past but never did anything with it. Going to take another look . Mid 13's a month ago now sitting at Mid 15's
Hey Reb, I just spoke to a friend of mine who's real high on KERX with a Sept approval date coming up. I've checked this stock out in the past but never did anything with it. Going to take another look . Mid 13's a month ago now sitting at Mid 15's
I know you asked Reb but I'll give you my 2 cents. This is an exact mirror of MNKD, IMO. Run up into the expected approval. Massive debt. No sales. It also has a high institution ownership. So when they pull the plug, it'll really head south. They literally burn through 100 mill a year. The approval is a virtual certainty and is pretty much priced in (much like MNKD). I'll be shorting this one after its official approval.
Hey Reb, I just spoke to a friend of mine who's real high on KERX with a Sept approval date coming up. I've checked this stock out in the past but never did anything with it. Going to take another look . Mid 13's a month ago now sitting at Mid 15's
Where were you back in Jan '13 see following: from my post (#140 of this thread back on 1/28/13) "One big mover today that I have a relatively small position in is KERX, their phase 3 trials were successful for a drug therapy tied to renal/kidney failure and dialysis needs, they will be submitting for FDA approval which it looks like they should receive based on the trials" price points for 1/28/13 were as follows:
01/28/2013 Open $5.10 High $6.86 Low $4.63 Close $6.0575
from post 142 on 1/29/13 : " KERX that I mentioned yesterday is up another 35% this morning as well. GL today" price points for 1/29/13 as follows:
01/29/2013 Open $7.14 High $8.79 Low $7.10 Close $8.36
Also post 218 and my response to it post 220 from back in Mar.
Having said all that as far as now and looking forward, as it is close to its recent highs of close to 17.50 would believe the upside is limited from a valuation standpoint. I agree and disagree with Jafar as far as the following, I agree that the news is built in to a certain extent for the near term on this one, so maybe trade for a small pop would be the best I could see right now on this one and I wouldn't do it myself but longer term it should do well if sales come in as they hope for. I disagree with Jafar as it being a mirror to MNKD as far as longer term. IMO MNKD looks like a one trick pony to many regarding Afrezza, but in reality they have much more potential with their technosphere technology and I don't believe that is anywhere near factored into their valuation at this point. Also, the Sanofi partnership will ultimately be seen as a well thought out joint venture by Al Mann in the end. I would (and have personally) still put my investment dollars behind MNKD at these prices compared to KERX...it's basically a 2 for 1 in leverage with a much higher potential return with MNKD a year to 3yrs. out again IMO.
I liked KERX obviously when it was in the 5's, no so much here in the 15's....think there are still better options out there, talk soon
oh what the heck... im going to start jumping in this thread, but im really boring about investing in the financial markets, so im not likely to be much fun. im a pretty big emh believer, so i only manage 10% of my own investments, and outsource the rest of it (3 hedge funds, 2 mutual funds).
i dont have any interest in technicals in any way, shape, or form (and put anyone on mute if they talk about that stuff). i prefer microcaps (200m-1bb market cap...... but def not penny stocks or scammy stuff with high vig) with my own selections, as i dont think its very realistic for someone to beat the market on larger stocks. i dont invest in any company if i dont understand the business type, business model, etc. i dont ever own more than 3-4 things in the part of my portfolio that i manage myself. i tend to hold things for a really long time (years).
oh what the heck... im going to start jumping in this thread, but im really boring about investing in the financial markets, so im not likely to be much fun. im a pretty big emh believer, so i only manage 10% of my own investments, and outsource the rest of it (3 hedge funds, 2 mutual funds).
i dont have any interest in technicals in any way, shape, or form (and put anyone on mute if they talk about that stuff). i prefer microcaps (200m-1bb market cap...... but def not penny stocks or scammy stuff with high vig) with my own selections, as i dont think its very realistic for someone to beat the market on larger stocks. i dont invest in any company if i dont understand the business type, business model, etc. i dont ever own more than 3-4 things in the part of my portfolio that i manage myself. i tend to hold things for a really long time (years).
is anyone else in this thread boring like this?
Me, sort of, I do own large caps, apple, mu and allow myself one gambling stock (FNMA). I have no idea why anyone would ever invest in Mutual Funds or hedge funds (unless you want access to such a exotic product that you can't get in without a HF, ie CLOs/equity tranches, mazz debt). I have 70-80% of my money in VTI - investing long term wise it doesn't get any better - broad market .05% expense ratio or 8 times less then spy. what do the hedge funds specialize in that you are involved with?
Me, sort of, I do own large caps, apple, mu and allow myself one gambling stock (FNMA). I have no idea why anyone would ever invest in Mutual Funds or hedge funds (unless you want access to such a exotic product that you can't get in without a HF, ie CLOs/equity tranches, mazz debt). I have 70-80% of my money in VTI - investing long term wise it doesn't get any better - broad market .05% expense ratio or 8 times less then spy. what do the hedge funds specialize in that you are involved with?
the ones that im in are all 'special', sorta. im in one from citadel, that i was able to get into in early 2013 after over a year of wrangling to do so, with a ton of help from an introducing broker. im in another one from winton capital (similar story). both are market neutral funds with a slew of quantitative strategies within them. the 3rd one is a hft fund run by 2 cal tech kids, one of whom used to work for me. the mutual fund im in is a very low risk arbitrage fund (primarily merger arb). i own a deep value microcap fund from the same family, in large part because i know a lot of people there from when i lived in nyc. ive owned google since the disaster in 2008, but sold a bunch for the citadel investment in early 2013, and that ofc turned out to be a bummer. thats the only large cap that i own. i swear on my kid that ive considered taking a gamble on fnma many times in the past x years, too.
the ones that im in are all 'special', sorta. im in one from citadel, that i was able to get into in early 2013 after over a year of wrangling to do so, with a ton of help from an introducing broker. im in another one from winton capital (similar story). both are market neutral funds with a slew of quantitative strategies within them. the 3rd one is a hft fund run by 2 cal tech kids, one of whom used to work for me. the mutual fund im in is a very low risk arbitrage fund (primarily merger arb). i own a deep value microcap fund from the same family, in large part because i know a lot of people there from when i lived in nyc. ive owned google since the disaster in 2008, but sold a bunch for the citadel investment in early 2013, and that ofc turned out to be a bummer. thats the only large cap that i own. i swear on my kid that ive considered taking a gamble on fnma many times in the past x years, too.
you are in the Citadel fund that charges 4 and 40? my opinion on FNMA is that it's worth either zero or $40 and nothing in between if you have capital that u can gamble with and let it sit for the next 2-10 years while our government makes a decision then its not a bad play. you are obviously letting bill ackman and others do the dirty work.
I have a small equity piece of a quant firm that allows users anywhere in the world to login(for free) and write quant strategies either in C# or python and back test those strategies instantly from their web gui using tick data (that sits on a cloud). basically giving any user the same power and capabilities that high frequency shops provide their quants. figuring out the right business model has been very difficult but we have two hedge funds that are willing to share profits if they hire quants that we discover. I wanted to apply the same concepts to sports trading but it has been way too time consuming scraping the right data sets online and back testing against historical lines. curious to see what you think and if you have any potential investment appetite.
you are in the Citadel fund that charges 4 and 40? my opinion on FNMA is that it's worth either zero or $40 and nothing in between if you have capital that u can gamble with and let it sit for the next 2-10 years while our government makes a decision then its not a bad play. you are obviously letting bill ackman and others do the dirty work.
I have a small equity piece of a quant firm that allows users anywhere in the world to login(for free) and write quant strategies either in C# or python and back test those strategies instantly from their web gui using tick data (that sits on a cloud). basically giving any user the same power and capabilities that high frequency shops provide their quants. figuring out the right business model has been very difficult but we have two hedge funds that are willing to share profits if they hire quants that we discover. I wanted to apply the same concepts to sports trading but it has been way too time consuming scraping the right data sets online and back testing against historical lines. curious to see what you think and if you have any potential investment appetite.
im in their wellington fund. its "0"/20 (ie theres no direct mgmt fee, it comes right out of the kitty), and i pay an additional 0.5%/yr to the introducing broker who got me into it.
i actually think the idea youre talking about sounds really interesting. id assume theres way more money to be made with something like that in financial markets than in sports trading tho, no?
im in their wellington fund. its "0"/20 (ie theres no direct mgmt fee, it comes right out of the kitty), and i pay an additional 0.5%/yr to the introducing broker who got me into it.
i actually think the idea youre talking about sounds really interesting. id assume theres way more money to be made with something like that in financial markets than in sports trading tho, no?
We are doing this only in the financial markets but I thought about implementing it to sports. Problem for us is figuring out the best business model, outsourcing it to universities, quant intro to hedge funds, live trading and raising money to fund various site developed alphas have been discussed.
Are u happy that uve had the opportunity to invest into these funds? Or would u have been better off buying into a low fee index fund?
Are u happy that uve had the opportunity to invest into these funds? Or would u have been better off buying into a low fee index fund?
im very happy with citadel. i do their biannual conference calls, and theyre smart as hell. they seem to have learned their lesson wrt risk after the 2008 debacle, and have really gone the market neutral route since then. winton is very guarded, and i have little info re what theyre doing tbh (theyre like a british rentech, they share no info of any kind, and its 100% intensely quant). im ecstatic with the hft fund. im very happy that ive had the opportunity to get into all of them, i dont think i could get remotely this sort of thing out of index funds.
wborder900 -> they have a crazy investment level, but if you get an introducing broker to put you in via a pool (ie pooling your money with that of others, to meet the minimum together), you can get into one for as little as 100k. but citadel is closing to new investments this quarter now, so the ship has sailed with them. but you can get into other/similar funds via an IB, if you meet the net worth requirements and whatnot.
For anyone interested in Sundance (SDCJF) check out their Quarterly report and operations update from yesterday. They are now producing 5798 boe per day, which is fantastic for a small company.
BTD,
Do you have any comments/revisions to the post on Hot Copper Forum by "OilGoldGas" on 9/4/14?
Pretty knowledgeable comments. This is why I think the stock sees $5 sooner rather than later. Especially as it gains more exposure here in the States. Will most likely get bought out.
BTD,
Do you have any comments/revisions to the post on Hot Copper Forum by "OilGoldGas" on 9/4/14?
Pretty knowledgeable comments. This is why I think the stock sees $5 sooner rather than later. Especially as it gains more exposure here in the States. Will most likely get bought out.
Take a look at this spreadsheet, stock market style investment with betting. spreadsheet i have seen in terms of roi. http://docs.google.com/file/d/0B4AAus0VVW2Dc2lRZ25obDA2Vmc You have to download the spreadsheet to view it properly since its a large file with lots of analysis and sheets.
I know you asked Reb but I'll give you my 2 cents. This is an exact mirror of MNKD, IMO. Run up into the expected approval. Massive debt. No sales. It also has a high institution ownership. So when they pull the plug, it'll really head south. They literally burn through 100 mill a year. The approval is a virtual certainty and is pretty much priced in (much like MNKD). I'll be shorting this one after its official approval.
KERX was approved and promptly dropped 5% yesterday. Look for this one to keep heading south on Monday. Happy shorting!
Comments
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2424625-10-known-unknowns-that-matter-for-mannkind-investors?uprof=46
Monster is up $16.00 to $87.00 after news coke will pay 2.15 billion for a 16% stake in MNST....GG I hope you held and put that stop in so you enjoy this home run!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101906303
Monster Beverage Corp (MNST :NASDAQ)
Real Time Stock Quote | Source: NASDAQ Real-Time Last Sale
Extended Hours 87.6499 USD
Last Trade
15.9999 (+22.33%)
After Hours Change
1,332,226
Volume
08/14/2014
After Hours
71.65 USD
Close Price
0.50 (+0.7%)
Change
646,078
Volume
08/14/2014
BTD,
What's your target both price and time frame on this?
Anybody that knows....
Also I have a general investing question. Do all trade platforms require a $25K balance to trade these low priced securities? Reason I'm asking is that I currently use Merrill Edge because I get 30 free trades a month but they require me to keep a $25K balance to trade the low/risky stocks.
Thanks
GG, I feel you. I feel lost a bit with the stock market. I felt ike a fish amongst sharks and pretty much sold everything minus a few small stocks not worth selling at this point. I cashed out and have gotten my feet wet with buying life insurance settlements. If you're looking into invest, I'd suggest taking a look into those. I was pretty careful and got a little help/lucky and for somebody who isn't exactly the most knowledgable with stocks, its a fine alternative.
ChrisT-- Firstly, I use Scottrade, and they charge $8 a trade, even on these penny stocks. Some, like Merril add a $50 foreign stock fee-- which is out and out thievery. I would definitely get a discount broker for these little guys if you plan to trade them.
As for my target price-- I don't really have one. I will not buy one of these penny stocks if I don't feel it will at least triple. They are riskier, and therefore I look for a bigger profit. That said, you have to stay on top of all the news on these little ones, and constantly be reevaluating them. You may end up selling for a loss, or breaking even. But, the profits can be very nice. The time frame I look for is 1-2 years. But, I believe in the old saying "always take a profit on a quick rise". I usually buy 3 lots of a given stock-- one to sell when I get a triple, one to trade in and out of if the stock gets some good price swings, and the third lot is to hold for years and hope it's the one that goes from .25 to $20.
A recent example from my portfolio. I bought Sundance (SDCJF) about 4 years ago for .25-- it gradually moved up, and I sold some about a year later for $1.07. Seeing that the company was doing great things, I bought back my position for .46 and more at .55. Then 2 more years went by. The company was reporting good things, but nothing moves unless the word gets out. Finally, after sitting around the .80-.90 mark for the last year, people are starting to sit up and take notice. Yesterday it hit a new high of $1.32 (and I sold some at $1.30) I think this will be a $5 stock in next year or so, and if I wasn't in already, I'd be buying at anything around $1.25.
Check out the write-up on Caza at www.saadvisory.com. William has a great newsletter, and has picked many more huge winners than losers over the years. I've been following him since about 1985 or so.
Good luck with your investing.
I appreciate the info BTD. I will look to take advantage of you 3 lot strategy and read up on saadvisory. I've been buying around $2K after I look into a suggestion you post on the board. I am currently holding 2K of lvlef & sdcjf and 6K of cazff (cazff bought today around 10AM). So thanks again for the info and of course I know this is all at my own risk. I mean this is a "betting talk" forum and not a "money grows on trees" forum.
Money does indeed grow on trees-- it's just the harvesting part that's hard.
A buddy of mine has been in this one for awhile, will get his take on where they're at with their lead candidate
AusTex Reports Significant Increase in Reserves
http://www.austexoil.com/irm/content/asx-announcements.aspx?RID=8&RedirectCount=1
BTD, spoke with the guy I know that has been in it for awhile, fwiw he basically was not overly enthusiastic as it has been a long haul and he expects it to continue to be for the near future. He did say they have done a fair amount of dilution so he was not too overjoyed from that standpoint. Otherwise, they seem to be going the route of mixing it with other drugs for sort of a "chemo cocktail" and supposedly have shown decent results with the combination. I had been in it for about six mos. but decided there were better options out there such as (obviously still MNKD) along with INO among others...currently watching the market retest the highs with my finger on the trigger for another leg down play...waiting to see how tomorrow plays out on the weekly charts, today's volume on the barely squeeked out new high was nothing to write home about whatsoever. GL
I know you asked Reb but I'll give you my 2 cents. This is an exact mirror of MNKD, IMO. Run up into the expected approval. Massive debt. No sales. It also has a high institution ownership. So when they pull the plug, it'll really head south. They literally burn through 100 mill a year. The approval is a virtual certainty and is pretty much priced in (much like MNKD). I'll be shorting this one after its official approval.
Where were you back in Jan '13 see following: from my post (#140 of this thread back on 1/28/13) "One big mover today that I have a relatively small position in is KERX, their phase 3 trials were successful for a drug therapy tied to renal/kidney failure and dialysis needs, they will be submitting for FDA approval which it looks like they should receive based on the trials" price points for 1/28/13 were as follows:
01/28/2013 Open $5.10 High $6.86 Low $4.63 Close $6.0575
from post 142 on 1/29/13 : " KERX that I mentioned yesterday is up another 35% this morning as well. GL today" price points for 1/29/13 as follows:
01/29/2013 Open $7.14 High $8.79 Low $7.10 Close $8.36
Also post 218 and my response to it post 220 from back in Mar.
Having said all that as far as now and looking forward, as it is close to its recent highs of close to 17.50 would believe the upside is limited from a valuation standpoint. I agree and disagree with Jafar as far as the following, I agree that the news is built in to a certain extent for the near term on this one, so maybe trade for a small pop would be the best I could see right now on this one and I wouldn't do it myself but longer term it should do well if sales come in as they hope for. I disagree with Jafar as it being a mirror to MNKD as far as longer term. IMO MNKD looks like a one trick pony to many regarding Afrezza, but in reality they have much more potential with their technosphere technology and I don't believe that is anywhere near factored into their valuation at this point. Also, the Sanofi partnership will ultimately be seen as a well thought out joint venture by Al Mann in the end. I would (and have personally) still put my investment dollars behind MNKD at these prices compared to KERX...it's basically a 2 for 1 in leverage with a much higher potential return with MNKD a year to 3yrs. out again IMO.
I liked KERX obviously when it was in the 5's, no so much here in the 15's....think there are still better options out there, talk soon
i dont have any interest in technicals in any way, shape, or form (and put anyone on mute if they talk about that stuff). i prefer microcaps (200m-1bb market cap...... but def not penny stocks or scammy stuff with high vig) with my own selections, as i dont think its very realistic for someone to beat the market on larger stocks. i dont invest in any company if i dont understand the business type, business model, etc. i dont ever own more than 3-4 things in the part of my portfolio that i manage myself. i tend to hold things for a really long time (years).
is anyone else in this thread boring like this?
Me, sort of, I do own large caps, apple, mu and allow myself one gambling stock (FNMA). I have no idea why anyone would ever invest in Mutual Funds or hedge funds (unless you want access to such a exotic product that you can't get in without a HF, ie CLOs/equity tranches, mazz debt). I have 70-80% of my money in VTI - investing long term wise it doesn't get any better - broad market .05% expense ratio or 8 times less then spy. what do the hedge funds specialize in that you are involved with?
the ones that im in are all 'special', sorta. im in one from citadel, that i was able to get into in early 2013 after over a year of wrangling to do so, with a ton of help from an introducing broker. im in another one from winton capital (similar story). both are market neutral funds with a slew of quantitative strategies within them. the 3rd one is a hft fund run by 2 cal tech kids, one of whom used to work for me. the mutual fund im in is a very low risk arbitrage fund (primarily merger arb). i own a deep value microcap fund from the same family, in large part because i know a lot of people there from when i lived in nyc. ive owned google since the disaster in 2008, but sold a bunch for the citadel investment in early 2013, and that ofc turned out to be a bummer. thats the only large cap that i own. i swear on my kid that ive considered taking a gamble on fnma many times in the past x years, too.
you are in the Citadel fund that charges 4 and 40? my opinion on FNMA is that it's worth either zero or $40 and nothing in between if you have capital that u can gamble with and let it sit for the next 2-10 years while our government makes a decision then its not a bad play. you are obviously letting bill ackman and others do the dirty work.
I have a small equity piece of a quant firm that allows users anywhere in the world to login(for free) and write quant strategies either in C# or python and back test those strategies instantly from their web gui using tick data (that sits on a cloud). basically giving any user the same power and capabilities that high frequency shops provide their quants. figuring out the right business model has been very difficult but we have two hedge funds that are willing to share profits if they hire quants that we discover. I wanted to apply the same concepts to sports trading but it has been way too time consuming scraping the right data sets online and back testing against historical lines. curious to see what you think and if you have any potential investment appetite.
im in their wellington fund. its "0"/20 (ie theres no direct mgmt fee, it comes right out of the kitty), and i pay an additional 0.5%/yr to the introducing broker who got me into it.
i actually think the idea youre talking about sounds really interesting. id assume theres way more money to be made with something like that in financial markets than in sports trading tho, no?
We are doing this only in the financial markets but I thought about implementing it to sports. Problem for us is figuring out the best business model, outsourcing it to universities, quant intro to hedge funds, live trading and raising money to fund various site developed alphas have been discussed.
Are u happy that uve had the opportunity to invest into these funds? Or would u have been better off buying into a low fee index fund?
im very happy with citadel. i do their biannual conference calls, and theyre smart as hell. they seem to have learned their lesson wrt risk after the 2008 debacle, and have really gone the market neutral route since then. winton is very guarded, and i have little info re what theyre doing tbh (theyre like a british rentech, they share no info of any kind, and its 100% intensely quant). im ecstatic with the hft fund. im very happy that ive had the opportunity to get into all of them, i dont think i could get remotely this sort of thing out of index funds.
im now looking into this trade with the 10% or so of my money that i manage myself: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/29/u-s-dollar-will-achieve-parity-with-euro-by-2017-says-goldman/?mod=e2tw ive been looking into this for about 3-4 months now, but havent done it yet.
wborder900 -> they have a crazy investment level, but if you get an introducing broker to put you in via a pool (ie pooling your money with that of others, to meet the minimum together), you can get into one for as little as 100k. but citadel is closing to new investments this quarter now, so the ship has sailed with them. but you can get into other/similar funds via an IB, if you meet the net worth requirements and whatnot.
BTD,
Do you have any comments/revisions to the post on Hot Copper Forum by "OilGoldGas" on 9/4/14?
Pretty knowledgeable comments. This is why I think the stock sees $5 sooner rather than later. Especially as it gains more exposure here in the States. Will most likely get bought out.
Pretty knowledgeable comments. This is why I think the stock sees $5 sooner rather than later. Especially as it gains more exposure here in the States. Will most likely get bought out.
http://docs.google.com/file/d/0B4AAus0VVW2Dc2lRZ25obDA2Vmc You have to download the spreadsheet to view it properly since its a large file with lots of analysis and sheets.
KERX was approved and promptly dropped 5% yesterday. Look for this one to keep heading south on Monday. Happy shorting!
Burn baby burn!