If you're not getting a cut from the handicappers on the bottom of the page. You're probably down a little money. These type or runs can happen to anybody. Just like it's happening to buffet right now. I'm invested in this as well with buffet. I believe long-term he will turn it around. But unfortunately these are one-year subscriptions. My first judgment of +EV long-term is around 10,000 plays. From the post I am reading people are putting way too much stock into past performance and the endorsement. This endorsement comes from a tout who gets a cut from the package sold. Long-term I believe buffet will definitely turn this around.
Its not just Buffett, its more anyone that has a link on this site lately. This year, Sixth sense was a loser, Stevie was a loser if you subscribed to his all sport package(not including his free baseball last season that was red) and now this burial. Roughly 1000 plays of nothing but losing, doesn't even include subscription costs. Nothing personal and of course I understand the risks involved in these ventures but at what point do you just walk away?
Its not just Buffett, its more anyone that has a link on this site lately. This year, Sixth sense was a loser, Stevie was a loser if you subscribed to his all sport package(not including his free baseball last season that was red) and now this burial. Roughly 1000 plays of nothing but losing, doesn't even include subscription costs. Nothing personal and of course I understand the risks involved in these ventures but at what point do you just walk away?
I feel for you guy. I'm 45 and I've been doing this full-time since I was 28. I buy lots of information and lots services and plays. It's a rough business. Just preparing play cost a lot of money. Between Don best, DirecTV, dish which I have to have now because of the SEC and PAC 12 and even the Longhorn network. I'm in the hole about $1000 to watch TV and monitor lines. But I love what I do and just realize the losing streaks are all part of it.
Best of luck
Out of pure curiosity, and I'm not trying to be a dick, but if 146-149 is not a shocking result, then why on earth would you endorse that? I would think that being down 18 units or so should absolutely blow your mind, and if not, then why not endorse everyone?
PS. I am very much looking forward to your football! Thanks
Does it "blow your mind" when someone hits a 3-outer on the river against you in poker (assuming that you know hold-em)? Odds are probably about the same (ie. if Kellen is a 54% capper, the odds of going 146-149 are a little less than 1 in 15). I have no idea if Kellen will win going forward (I'd put my money on "yes"), but I don't get "shocked" when something that has around a 7% chance of happening happens. It completely sucks and everything, but not really "mind blowing". I'd be more alarmed at the lack of CLV.
What's your Risk Tolerance and your B/R and that's the answer you can only answer. Can you handle the ups and downs because they never go away and do you have the B/R and are you betting properly to withstand the dips and a better question do you want to lose money on someone else's supposed advantage plays or work a little harder and do it yourself and maybe get double satisfaction.
Does it "blow your mind" when someone hits a 3-outer on the river against you in poker (assuming that you know hold-em)? Odds are probably about the same (ie. if Kellen is a 54% capper, the odds of going 146-149 are a little less than 1 in 15). I have no idea if Kellen will win going forward (I'd put my money on "yes"), but I don't get "shocked" when something that has around a 7% chance of happening happens. It completely sucks and everything, but not really "mind blowing". I'd be more alarmed at the lack of CLV.
That's perfectly ok for it not to be mind blowing for you or RAS. My point is for me, it better be mind blowing if I'm going to endorse someone that hits less than 50 pct over 300 plays when other fuckin people are paying for it. (not me) And since it's not "out of the ordinary/shocking" for y'all, then why doesn't he endorse a whole fuck load of people and then when some run bad , just say, "it's ok cause it's just not that surprising cause the nfl market is so tough" . I mean what the fuck is that?
Again I'm not trying to be a dick and I really don't care cause I never bought kellen, just something about that doesn't make since to me.
What's your Risk Tolerance and your B/R and that's the answer you can only answer. Can you handle the ups and downs because they never go away and do you have the B/R and are you betting properly to withstand the dips and a better question do you want to lose money on someone else's supposed advantage plays or work a little harder and do it yourself and maybe get double satisfaction.
Appreciate the reply. Lucky for me I do not do this for a living and the money I am losing is from an actual bankroll and not needed funds. But nontheless it does suck watching a bankroll that has been built up over years of gambling hobby be basically smashed to nothing. Wish I had the time or ability to do this successfully myself. It was an enjoyable hobby that yielded a small profit but its getting to point of becoming frustrating and most of the fun is gone. I guess I just ride it out until bankroll basically nothing and hope I get to minus 20 before i get to minus 40 or 50 with BG.
Appreciate the reply. Lucky for me I do not do this for a living and the money I am losing is from an actual bankroll and not needed funds. But nontheless it does suck watching a bankroll that has been built up over years of gambling hobby be basically smashed to nothing. Wish I had the time or ability to do this successfully myself. It was an enjoyable hobby that yielded a small profit but its getting to point of becoming frustrating and most of the fun is gone. I guess I just ride it out until bankroll basically nothing and hope I get to minus 20 before i get to minus 40 or 50 with BG.
$100 donation from the loser to the charity of the winner's choice that he finishes ahead this season (of course assuming that he offers a service, and we'd be able to verify the results of his service). Interested?
$100 donation from the loser to the charity of the winner's choice that he finishes ahead this season (of course assuming that he offers a service, and we'd be able to verify the results of his service). Interested?
Bg, can you comment on why there hasn't been very many plays on dogs? Is it because of what durito said?
A good majority of my releases are within 3 or 4 cents of my strike price. Given the risk profile of underdogs relative to favorites, I require a slightly higher edge on underdogs to be released compared to favorites. Within the confines of an increasingly more efficient market, having the criteria mentioned above can have the tendency of sending out a much higher rate of favorites compared to dogs, while in actuality my numbers aren't generating the great bias to favorites as it seems. Combine this with the notion that I tend to have my highest favorite/dog ratio early in the season and favorites ytd performance potentially continually compressing their valuations, and the end result is a very high rate of favorites getting released.
There is a good amount of (misguided) talk in this thread addressing concerns of particular payout structures being "square". Concern would have been more appropriately directed towards questioning whether I have a bias or flaw in my discounting with such a high rate of favorites being released. This would raise much concern for me as well.
I just wrote a paragraph on that and decided to forget it because Tommy L your a true company man. turn out the lights on that one.
I give my opinions based on my own thoughts, not thoughts from Edward or BettingTalk or anyone else. I have no connection to Kellen, absolutely nothing to gain whether he wins or loses (well, unless procap wants to partake in the friendly wager), and think I know Edward well enough to know that I could give my thoughts on BG/StevieY/SixthSense without having to "filter" anything or try to toe some type of "company line" (plus I have absolutely no idea if Edward will even be involved in any way with Kellen this upcoming season). I simply based my opinion on his long term results (although I would slightly modify it now, as I thought his site was updated with this past season so that he had a 53.8% win rate over all of his plays over the past decade+, when it's actually 53.3%). I'd especially like his chances of turning it around if he takes a look at the current model and decides to release his stuff earlier in the week moving forward.
however I could just buy the remainder of the season, not play anything and get my money back for both subscriptions. This would be kind of like getting off on a technicality, so what is the point ? Why not just refund the 70 day subscribers and save everyone the trouble of sending the money only to have it sent back 2.5 months later ?
If I viewed it as a pointless endeavor, I would obviously not put my clients through additional strain. Perhaps I am guilty of being an optimist, but it is certainly not uncommon for me to have 30+ unit seasons.
just want to make it clear my above statement was in reply to this:
I simply based my opinion on his long term results (although I would slightly modify it now, as I thought his site was updated with this past season so that he had a 53.8% win rate over all of his plays over the past decade+, when it's actually 53.3%). I'd especially like his chances of turning it around if he takes a look at the current model and decides to release his stuff earlier in the week moving forward.
Cool, I'll reach out to you as NFL season draws near to hammer out the details (basically, I'd say that we make it as simple as "whatever his record is after the Super Bowl according to his site or whatever tracking site he uses"). And I promise to use a legit charity and not have your donation go to "The Human Fund" in the event that he finishes ahead. And if I'm wrong and he stinks it up again, at least $100 will go to a good charity.
I'll pass and just stick with the bet with procap. At $500, I might have to check with my wife first and I'm not sure how much faith she has in Sixth Sense.
What % would you need to see from someone in the NFL to endorse them?
For me no less than 55 percent. You have to factor in cost of the service, release line, etc...
Having less than a 1 percent edge doesn't cut it when you factor those things in IMO . What about you?
What % would you need to see from someone in the NFL to endorse them? Would 54.9% be good enough? Or 54.4%?
I don't know about golfer but I could never endorse someone who advises to play 3% per play on an NFL game. In no way shape or form is that something a professional or sophisticated wagerer would do. Your bankroll just can't carry that much negative variance with that much exposure. I haven't met one professional that would advise someone to wager that way.
I personally think that the markets change so much from year to year, season to season, that people put way to much stock into what people did 5-6 years ago. I think that is less of a factor in today's markets than ever before.
Comments
Its not just Buffett, its more anyone that has a link on this site lately. This year, Sixth sense was a loser, Stevie was a loser if you subscribed to his all sport package(not including his free baseball last season that was red) and now this burial. Roughly 1000 plays of nothing but losing, doesn't even include subscription costs. Nothing personal and of course I understand the risks involved in these ventures but at what point do you just walk away?
Best of luck
Does it "blow your mind" when someone hits a 3-outer on the river against you in poker (assuming that you know hold-em)? Odds are probably about the same (ie. if Kellen is a 54% capper, the odds of going 146-149 are a little less than 1 in 15). I have no idea if Kellen will win going forward (I'd put my money on "yes"), but I don't get "shocked" when something that has around a 7% chance of happening happens. It completely sucks and everything, but not really "mind blowing". I'd be more alarmed at the lack of CLV.
What's your Risk Tolerance and your B/R and that's the answer you can only answer. Can you handle the ups and downs because they never go away and do you have the B/R and are you betting properly to withstand the dips and a better question do you want to lose money on someone else's supposed advantage plays or work a little harder and do it yourself and maybe get double satisfaction.
How much are you willing to put on that?
I just wrote a paragraph on that and decided to forget it because Tommy L your a true company man. turn out the lights on that one.
MJ, I see you brother. Hope all is well.
That's perfectly ok for it not to be mind blowing for you or RAS. My point is for me, it better be mind blowing if I'm going to endorse someone that hits less than 50 pct over 300 plays when other fuckin people are paying for it. (not me) And since it's not "out of the ordinary/shocking" for y'all, then why doesn't he endorse a whole fuck load of people and then when some run bad , just say, "it's ok cause it's just not that surprising cause the nfl market is so tough" . I mean what the fuck is that?
Again I'm not trying to be a dick and I really don't care cause I never bought kellen, just something about that doesn't make since to me.
Appreciate the reply. Lucky for me I do not do this for a living and the money I am losing is from an actual bankroll and not needed funds. But nontheless it does suck watching a bankroll that has been built up over years of gambling hobby be basically smashed to nothing. Wish I had the time or ability to do this successfully myself. It was an enjoyable hobby that yielded a small profit but its getting to point of becoming frustrating and most of the fun is gone. I guess I just ride it out until bankroll basically nothing and hope I get to minus 20 before i get to minus 40 or 50 with BG.
This is incredible.
Best of luck dawgs.
$100 donation from the loser to the charity of the winner's choice that he finishes ahead this season (of course assuming that he offers a service, and we'd be able to verify the results of his service). Interested?
You got yourself a deal.
A good majority of my releases are within 3 or 4 cents of my strike price. Given the risk profile of underdogs relative to favorites, I require a slightly higher edge on underdogs to be released compared to favorites. Within the confines of an increasingly more efficient market, having the criteria mentioned above can have the tendency of sending out a much higher rate of favorites compared to dogs, while in actuality my numbers aren't generating the great bias to favorites as it seems. Combine this with the notion that I tend to have my highest favorite/dog ratio early in the season and favorites ytd performance potentially continually compressing their valuations, and the end result is a very high rate of favorites getting released.
There is a good amount of (misguided) talk in this thread addressing concerns of particular payout structures being "square". Concern would have been more appropriately directed towards questioning whether I have a bias or flaw in my discounting with such a high rate of favorites being released. This would raise much concern for me as well.
I give my opinions based on my own thoughts, not thoughts from Edward or BettingTalk or anyone else. I have no connection to Kellen, absolutely nothing to gain whether he wins or loses (well, unless procap wants to partake in the friendly wager), and think I know Edward well enough to know that I could give my thoughts on BG/StevieY/SixthSense without having to "filter" anything or try to toe some type of "company line" (plus I have absolutely no idea if Edward will even be involved in any way with Kellen this upcoming season). I simply based my opinion on his long term results (although I would slightly modify it now, as I thought his site was updated with this past season so that he had a 53.8% win rate over all of his plays over the past decade+, when it's actually 53.3%). I'd especially like his chances of turning it around if he takes a look at the current model and decides to release his stuff earlier in the week moving forward.
Certainly. But -145's were really stretched to the downside in my opinion.
Tommy I'll play for $500 to charity of choice
Cool, I'll reach out to you as NFL season draws near to hammer out the details (basically, I'd say that we make it as simple as "whatever his record is after the Super Bowl according to his site or whatever tracking site he uses"). And I promise to use a legit charity and not have your donation go to "The Human Fund" in the event that he finishes ahead. And if I'm wrong and he stinks it up again, at least $100 will go to a good charity.
Maybe the downward pressure to Toronto mighta had something to do with pro-Happ, anti Verlander and the stopper(Nathan) quagmire the Tigers are in?
I'll pass and just stick with the bet with procap. At $500, I might have to check with my wife first and I'm not sure how much faith she has in Sixth Sense.
What % would you need to see from someone in the NFL to endorse them? Would 54.9% be good enough? Or 54.4%?
For me no less than 55 percent. You have to factor in cost of the service, release line, etc...
Having less than a 1 percent edge doesn't cut it when you factor those things in IMO . What about you?