Early NBA games
organic313
Senior Member
Any opinions today?
Will give my input after a few posts...
Will give my input after a few posts...
Comments
so like i said , if you do your handicapping and come up with under , i wouldnt blame you.
I guess those numbers show its old and not worth looking at.
Thanks I don't have a keyboard ! :laugh:
How about from '09-'10 until now?
I'll save you the trouble - 17 overs, 16 unders.
So yeah, it's old and it's been caught up to. Like I said.
Yeah and what about just odd years ?
Or only leap years ?
Damned if you do, damned if you don't - if you don't give 10 years, not a big enough sample size, if you give that crosses their theory - no bueno.
:idoit:
I didn't pick that year randomly. It went 11-1 in '08-'09, at which point everyone in the world knew about it and sucked all the value out. It hasn't been valuable since.
Lol no wonder you pick up one twenty stacks and can buy hotels in the Caribbean. Sooper sekrit MLK unders info cappin
It's not the sample size, it's the fact that it was one of the most widely used angles over the last decade. Without knowing what adjustments the books have made, the record is meaningless to what will happen in the future. What if the books dropped all those totals from an average of 196(just throwing out a number) to 190. Without knowing, you continue to blindly play it under, it is going to be ugly. Adjust your number by what you think the value of playing at an unusual time is and see if the books have as well. Going at such a public angle blindly after all these years can be dangerous.
And Jal if you are commenting to me , no comment you are the only ignore I got and the best one. I see you have tailed two of my comments , so must be the time of the month that you want to F with me, not interested in your childish SAUCY comments. LOL
Letsssssssssssssss gooooooooooooooooo!
Ummm... I did post the record.
H, whats your number on that ?
It's a message board, I'll reply to ya if I please. You know you love reading my posts lol
http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/175893-The-H-is-for-Hoops-2014-CBB?p=827974&viewfull=1#post827974
Can you let me know where you got them numbers or are they kept by you.
2003 2-5 O/U Avg opening line -4.44 pts lower than avg season line. Avg line movement up 0.08.
2004 3-4 O/U Avg opening line -1.63 pts lower than avg season line. Avg line movement up 0.92
Good results. Obviously the masses aren't playing it yet.
2005 0-7 O/U Avg opening line -2.30 pts lower than avg season line. Avg line movement down 1.50.
People pounded the games under for the first time. Coincidence? 1 year variance.
2006 3-6 O/U Avg opening line +1.22 pts higher than avg season line. Avg line movement down 0.83.
2 years in a row lines moved down. Take notice?
2007 4-4 O/U Avg opening line -0.56 pts lower than avg season line. Avg line movement down 1.33. Angle in full public view now across many forums.
Books didnt get hammered this year but another huge hit under on the games. Time to adjust?
2008 6-3 O/U Avg opening line -5.83 pts lower than avg season line. Avg line movement up 0.39.
Oops, over-adjusted. Angle players lost, line making players moved the lines up and won. Time to adjust again?
2009 1-6 O/U Avg opening line +0.55 pts higher than avg season line. Avg line movement down 0.75.
Went back too far again, angle and line making players on the same side again. Find a middle ground.
2010 4-5 O/U Avg opening line -2.15 pts lower than avg season line. Avg line movement down 1.28.
2011 5-4 O/U Avg opening line -0.56 pts lower than avg season line. Avg line movement down 0.95.
2012 4-3 O/U Avg opening line -3.21 pts lower than avg season line. Avg line movement down 1.35.
2013 3-3 O/U Avg opening line -3.39 pts lower than avg season line. Avg line movement down 1.16.
Angle still being played huge despite the fact the books seemed to have found the happy zone for the opening line.
This is why you have to break down an angle instead of just looking at the results. This angle can break even for the next 5-6 years and the overall record will still look great. Make the books give you a good line if you are going to proceed.
What were the rules for them?
I've been thinking the same thing throughout this thread.
ratings, play" under"'
The requirements are that both pitchers have 3 starts and the computer ratings will have an A,B,C column and each will be used.
EX: In the A column the 20th pitcher will end with an 3.65 npera (Just throwing out a number) you will then go to the B Column and stop when reaching that number 3.65 then the C Column. it's had success but last year there was a debate about using opening or closing lines but after monitoring it the closing line worked out better and it did show a slight profit. Some have suggested that when two pitchers are in the top 20 and it becomes a Stoffo Under play the books have picked up on this and have adjusted. I believe the books did pick up on lower total's then prior years but because of new drug testing policy's and looking at the offensive numbers dropping.
2 years ago I tried the 1st 5 and the game and had a great deal of success it wasn't the same this past year. I thought by taking out the bullpen there would be better success it didn't work last year but did the prior year so I just stuck with the full game and showed a slight profit. I'm going to try again this year don't know if I'll add the 1st 5 innings again may take look first. Just to add it has been successful for quite sometime but so have other trends, systems, angles call it what you will and it may go by the way side like others have. That remains to be seen.
Another requirement is that if a pitcher misses a start it must have another start before using that pitcher as a stoffo under play.
If I missed anything there are a few that still play it and may include anything I missed. Bucky you there.
Obliteration.