I hope I'm wrong, but after reading through all of this bullshit I have a feeling Doc won't be posting many more plays going forward. The other day someone asked him why he doesn't post plays here, this is your answer.
Puffer.....You wrote that... and the sentence ends with a WHY... just like all the people at the track WHY do you like that horse???
You're again comparing apples to oranges. I didn't ask why he liked Team A. I asked questions predicated on why it would benefit me/anyone to follow. If someone is posting a play, presumably to help people win, the classy thing to do if they DON'T FEEL LIKE ANSWERING THE QUESTIONS wouldn't be to take the route Dr. H did. I've posed buffett many questions, guess how many times it's went like this? Zero.
I hope I'm wrong, but after reading through all of this bullshit I have a feeling Doc won't be posting many more plays going forward. The other day someone asked him why he doesn't post plays here, this is your answer.
Why would someone so sensitive or such an ego maniac to even be asked a fair question be interested in even doing this anyway?
Puffer, Yes it went ZERO, because the methods he uses to pick winners wont be that easily discoverable for at least another decade
I don't follow. For the millionth time, I didn't ask/demand Dr. H to share his analysis... the first sentence of my initial post specifically said I understood why someone with an edge wouldn't want to!
I prefer people that win DON'T post write ups! I just asked for some verification. That's it! I could make a post tonight saying my dog had an edge and post the play, and with no further data/record/anything of the sort... how would it be beneficial?
Surely someone out there, Edward, or whomever, would agree. This site/RAS are some of the most prominent voices there are in terms of things like this, and the need to be careful in following without verification. I can't believe the backlash.
I hope I'm wrong, but after reading through all of this bullshit I have a feeling Doc won't be posting many more plays going forward. The other day someone asked him why he doesn't post plays here, this is your answer.
I've posted this before, but if someone decides to stop posting plays on a forum b/c of the responses they get, then they likely should have never started. It's a public internet forum. If you want to share plays without responses, start a blog. Of course, it's just as easy to ignore responses too.
And this is coming from someone who makes his living following others, so I'm the last person who would want anyone to stop posting plays, but I've always had a problem with the "he was chased away" thing.
One more thing... I also think posters should feel free to ask anything they want (as long as it's done respectfully). The OP can choose to handle those questions however he sees fit.
Again, this is just part of the deal when one chooses to post plays on a public forum.
I'm asking because I would love to follow (hence why he posted the play, so people could follow), but not blindly. I asked fair questions, never said he was obligated to do anything, never demanded anything, etc.
Don't assume that you know my motivation for posting. The main reason that I posted it, besides that I think it's a great bet, is that a few people asked me to post plays.
A BIG reason this thread turned negative was because people have trouble reading.
When this many people "have trouble reading," perhaps the problem is in what they are reading.
It's not my obligation to tell you my methods, convince you that I have an edge, show you a publicly kept record, give you the rotation #, notify you of early start times, post reasoning, prove anything to you, or do anything else. I think that I have an edge. I think it's a good play, and I posted it because I think it's got a positive expectation. There are strong reasons behind that, but no, I'm not willing to share. Do whatever you want with that information.
I can't believe this thread continued after this post. Pufferfish, look at his past posts and see what you think. Every post he has ever made on BT is readily available; do a little digging instead of demanding a resume. It's pretty clear Dr. H isn't going to bend over backwards to try to persuade you to tail his picks. In fact, I'm pretty sure he could give two shits what you or most people on this forum play or don't play with their own money. Some people asked him to post, so he posted.
I know nothing about Dr H or his particular plays (I figured something interesting must be going on if a picks thread reached 4 pages), but as a general rule, if someone is using statistical methodology, the play comes first, and the writeup is just an ex post facto narrative. When I post plays, there usually isn't much analysis, because it's basically that "my numbers say so." Trying to explain why your numbers say the line should be +2.5 so you're taking +4 can be impossible without giving away the details of your model. As I'm often betting on undervalued teams from a contrary perspective, I often say that it would be easier for me to write a writeup of the other side.
I usually only find writeups to be worthwhile to determine whether someone is not knowledgeable, but not to determine whether they are knowledgeable. If someone gives a writeup with a bunch of non-predictive garbage (like "Pitcher X has a 6.12 ERA in his last 3 starts against team A"), I know it's very likely that the person isn't knowledgeable. But it doesn't necessarily work the other way. I've noticed a new trend of coin flipper baseball touts randomly tossing in advanced stats into their writeups, but there's almost no chance these touts actually have an edge after flipping coins for so long. I've noticed several Pregame guys doing that, but just because they mention FIP or BABIP or whatever, doesn't mean they actually have any sort of clue about how to properly apply that to handicapping.
Since any writeup I give wouldn't really be particularly instructive about my abilities, unless I'm enough of an idiot that people should be automatically ignoring me (and I make enough other posts they should be able to ascertain that from other posts), I usually don't bother with writeups unless I have something specific to say about that game.
I know nothing about Dr H or his particular plays (I figured something interesting must be going on if a picks thread reached 4 pages), but as a general rule, if someone is using statistical methodology, the play comes first, and the writeup is just an ex post facto narrative. When I post plays, there usually isn't much analysis, because it's basically that "my numbers say so." Trying to explain why your numbers say the line should be +2.5 so you're taking +4 can be impossible without giving away the details of your model. As I'm often betting on undervalued teams from a contrary perspective, I often say that it would be easier for me to write a writeup of the other side.
I usually only find writeups to be worthwhile to determine whether someone is not knowledgeable, but not to determine whether they are knowledgeable. If someone gives a writeup with a bunch of non-predictive garbage (like "Pitcher X has a 6.12 ERA in his last 3 starts against team A"), I know it's very likely that the person isn't knowledgeable. But it doesn't necessarily work the other way. I've noticed a new trend of coin flipper baseball touts randomly tossing in advanced stats into their writeups, but there's almost no chance these touts actually have an edge after flipping coins for so long. I've noticed several Pregame guys doing that, but just because they mention FIP or BABIP or whatever, doesn't mean they actually have any sort of clue about how to properly apply that to handicapping.
Since any writeup I give wouldn't really be particularly instructive about my abilities, unless I'm enough of an idiot that people should be automatically ignoring me (and I make enough other posts they should be able to ascertain that from other posts), I usually don't bother with writeups unless I have something specific to say about that game.
I know nothing about Dr H or his particular plays (I figured something interesting must be going on if a picks thread reached 4 pages), but as a general rule, if someone is using statistical methodology, the play comes first, and the writeup is just an ex post facto narrative. When I post plays, there usually isn't much analysis, because it's basically that "my numbers say so." Trying to explain why your numbers say the line should be +2.5 so you're taking +4 can be impossible without giving away the details of your model. As I'm often betting on undervalued teams from a contrary perspective, I often say that it would be easier for me to write a writeup of the other side.
I usually only find writeups to be worthwhile to determine whether someone is not knowledgeable, but not to determine whether they are knowledgeable. If someone gives a writeup with a bunch of non-predictive garbage (like "Pitcher X has a 6.12 ERA in his last 3 starts against team A"), I know it's very likely that the person isn't knowledgeable. But it doesn't necessarily work the other way. I've noticed a new trend of coin flipper baseball touts randomly tossing in advanced stats into their writeups, but there's almost no chance these touts actually have an edge after flipping coins for so long. I've noticed several Pregame guys doing that, but just because they mention FIP or BABIP or whatever, doesn't mean they actually have any sort of clue about how to properly apply that to handicapping.
Since any writeup I give wouldn't really be particularly instructive about my abilities, unless I'm enough of an idiot that people should be automatically ignoring me (and I make enough other posts they should be able to ascertain that from other posts), I usually don't bother with writeups unless I have something specific to say about that game.
Comments
You're again comparing apples to oranges. I didn't ask why he liked Team A. I asked questions predicated on why it would benefit me/anyone to follow. If someone is posting a play, presumably to help people win, the classy thing to do if they DON'T FEEL LIKE ANSWERING THE QUESTIONS wouldn't be to take the route Dr. H did. I've posed buffett many questions, guess how many times it's went like this? Zero.
Why would someone so sensitive or such an ego maniac to even be asked a fair question be interested in even doing this anyway?
I don't follow. For the millionth time, I didn't ask/demand Dr. H to share his analysis... the first sentence of my initial post specifically said I understood why someone with an edge wouldn't want to!
I prefer people that win DON'T post write ups! I just asked for some verification. That's it! I could make a post tonight saying my dog had an edge and post the play, and with no further data/record/anything of the sort... how would it be beneficial?
Surely someone out there, Edward, or whomever, would agree. This site/RAS are some of the most prominent voices there are in terms of things like this, and the need to be careful in following without verification. I can't believe the backlash.
I've posted this before, but if someone decides to stop posting plays on a forum b/c of the responses they get, then they likely should have never started. It's a public internet forum. If you want to share plays without responses, start a blog. Of course, it's just as easy to ignore responses too.
And this is coming from someone who makes his living following others, so I'm the last person who would want anyone to stop posting plays, but I've always had a problem with the "he was chased away" thing.
Just my two cents of course.
Again, this is just part of the deal when one chooses to post plays on a public forum.
Don't assume that you know my motivation for posting. The main reason that I posted it, besides that I think it's a great bet, is that a few people asked me to post plays.
When this many people "have trouble reading," perhaps the problem is in what they are reading.
I can't believe this thread continued after this post. Pufferfish, look at his past posts and see what you think. Every post he has ever made on BT is readily available; do a little digging instead of demanding a resume. It's pretty clear Dr. H isn't going to bend over backwards to try to persuade you to tail his picks. In fact, I'm pretty sure he could give two shits what you or most people on this forum play or don't play with their own money. Some people asked him to post, so he posted.
I'm pretty surprised that line went against me, but glad you got the 8. GL.
Thank you kind sir.
Thanks for the winner H. Almost got it straight up too!
Hope to see you post more plays in the future.
I usually only find writeups to be worthwhile to determine whether someone is not knowledgeable, but not to determine whether they are knowledgeable. If someone gives a writeup with a bunch of non-predictive garbage (like "Pitcher X has a 6.12 ERA in his last 3 starts against team A"), I know it's very likely that the person isn't knowledgeable. But it doesn't necessarily work the other way. I've noticed a new trend of coin flipper baseball touts randomly tossing in advanced stats into their writeups, but there's almost no chance these touts actually have an edge after flipping coins for so long. I've noticed several Pregame guys doing that, but just because they mention FIP or BABIP or whatever, doesn't mean they actually have any sort of clue about how to properly apply that to handicapping.
Since any writeup I give wouldn't really be particularly instructive about my abilities, unless I'm enough of an idiot that people should be automatically ignoring me (and I make enough other posts they should be able to ascertain that from other posts), I usually don't bother with writeups unless I have something specific to say about that game.
I actually agree with this
Beautifully stated, especially the bolded.
748 Virginia -9.5
758 Providence +2
760 Oklahoma +4.5
761 Southern Illinois +3.5
780 Washington St. +7.5
785 Nevada +8
Good luck if ya try 'em.
Where's the write up? Thanks in advance.
That's some funny shit.
Oklahoma at 6 now. I'm stubborn. I bought more.
Where are your reading comprehension skills?
this is gold
GL. I bet them all.
I'm going to start posting a lot of golf in here this year. Hope I can pass along some winners.
ugly ass finish. the money was there for the taking. I turned it on only to see the last 2 minutes.
I don't hedge, this is independently +ev.