Betting self discipline and Bowl Season?
ComicBookGuy
Member
Just curious how much self discipline you exhibit during Bowl Season? With games almost every night how easy does it become to rationalize a TV bet.
I bring this up because of my experience with the 1989 season. The one game I loved was Notre Dame playing undefeated Colorado on New Years Day. I made an innocent TV bet on Christmas that lost and one the next day that also lost. You see where this is going. Between that first bet and New Years Day I lost every game I bet. Mercifully there weren't nearly as many Bowl games as there are now but I remember having to bet $2000 on ND to break even. For those that don't remember the game ND tortured me through a 0-0 first half before finally winning and covering 21-6.
I have never made that mistake again. This year I bet three games, Colorado St +4.5, Bowling Green-4.5 and Central Florida +17. Other than a possible free play money line bet on Auburn the rest of the games will be ignored.
I bring this up because of my experience with the 1989 season. The one game I loved was Notre Dame playing undefeated Colorado on New Years Day. I made an innocent TV bet on Christmas that lost and one the next day that also lost. You see where this is going. Between that first bet and New Years Day I lost every game I bet. Mercifully there weren't nearly as many Bowl games as there are now but I remember having to bet $2000 on ND to break even. For those that don't remember the game ND tortured me through a 0-0 first half before finally winning and covering 21-6.
I have never made that mistake again. This year I bet three games, Colorado St +4.5, Bowling Green-4.5 and Central Florida +17. Other than a possible free play money line bet on Auburn the rest of the games will be ignored.
Comments
However if you do intend to make money long term, the fact that a game is on t.v. shouldn't even factor into the decision making process: (1) There is either value & u allocate the appropriate % of ur bankroll (corresponding to perceived edge) to the +ev opportunity in order to achieve desired growth of ur BR or (2) there isn't value and u do nothing.
Discipline is one of the most important traits of an advantage player and you either have it or you don't. BOL with your bowl season my man.
Comic, you shouldnt ignore other games ,lots can happen before they play, like pissing of balconys and stuff .
good luck
But, I usually make a TV parlay with the teams I don't bet straight, just for rooting interest.
I was curious if anyone had a similar horror story where a series of innocent bets snowballed into a giant hot mess. it seems like Bowl Season or March Madness is a ripe opportunity for such things. I'm also aware that unlike in my case where ND covered and got me out of the hole I dug, the usual result is a loss. its one of the reasons I never want to revisit the situation.
Well said, and exactly true
I agree with the gist of your post, but the fact that a game is on TV can provide better betting opportunities, particularly for smaller bettors who have access to books like SIA, Bodog, locals, etc. On the Oregon St/Boise St Xmas Eve game, I believe the best line available at major books was un66.5, and SIA had un67.5 +100. Not that the 67 is worth very much (probably 1.5% at most), but if you're getting 1.5% better than the market at even money, that's decent value. I doubt SIA would have had a line that good if it wasn't the only game of the evening and also on TV.
It's human nature. We can all recite bad beats from 10- 20 years ago, but when we're on the side that pulls the miraculous cover, we soon forget.
Ah, but the fact the advantage player PULLS THE TRIGGER on the Under 67.5 +100 play has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that the game is on t.v. What pulls the trigger in the advantage player's mind is the fact that the # is mispriced. The reason for the mispricing (being on t.v. & more noobs hitting the square books) is of no significance unless you consider that reason to be a variable which must be factored into producing a correct line or if you have access to that square shop and are holding out for a better number.
Groovin, the message of the post was that you don't play a game B/C it's on t.v., you play it b/c there is a mispricing. Your point of the fact that a game being televised can create value (especially at a square shop) is a point that I neither disagree with, nor did I state the opposite opinion of such in my original post.
Even then, what is TRIGGERING THE BUY is not the fact that the game is on t.v., but the fact that the line has reached a +ev buy point for you at a particular square shop.
Very little....