What would you do? (Fantasy)
Goats
Head Moderator
My team is a total fraud, sitting at 4-3 mostly b/c I've gotten extremely lucky with my matchups (I have the 2nd lowest total points scored and the least points scored by my opponents). As you'll see from my roster below, assuming Spiller and Harvin are OUT, I can't field a full team this week due to bye/injury. My dilemma is that I really don't want to drop anyone who isn't playing this week b/c my team is so mediocre, I'd rather miss the playoffs than make it there with even less of a chance to beat anyone.
Other info: I'm a small favorite this week playing down a man and the best players available to pick up are guys like Hillis, Ellington, Stevie Johnson, Durham, etc. In other words, no one great.
I'm currently leaning towards rolling the dice and playing down a man. If I dropped someone, I would be leaning towards Spiller or Harvin. Thoughts?
Starting:
QB - Stafford
WR - Antonio Brown
WR - Blackmon
WR - Boykin
RB - Ridley
RB - Stacy
TE - Cameron
FLEX - EMPTY (assuming Spiller/Harvin out)
Bench:
WR - Hilton
WR - Allen
WR - Harvin
RB - Woodhead
RB - Spiller
TE - Gates
Other info: I'm a small favorite this week playing down a man and the best players available to pick up are guys like Hillis, Ellington, Stevie Johnson, Durham, etc. In other words, no one great.
I'm currently leaning towards rolling the dice and playing down a man. If I dropped someone, I would be leaning towards Spiller or Harvin. Thoughts?
Starting:
QB - Stafford
WR - Antonio Brown
WR - Blackmon
WR - Boykin
RB - Ridley
RB - Stacy
TE - Cameron
FLEX - EMPTY (assuming Spiller/Harvin out)
Bench:
WR - Hilton
WR - Allen
WR - Harvin
RB - Woodhead
RB - Spiller
TE - Gates
Comments
I don't like the idea if playing this week a man down.
GL
Agree that would have been optimal, but failed to mention this is a dumb extended family league with almost no trades ever made.
Giving up 6-8 points of EV is a lot. Looking at the marginal returns, if you drop Harvin, he isn't that much better than someone like a Steve Johnson, and that difference only matters if someone claims Harvin AND you need another WR later. AND, you would need to use said WR several times to make up that 6-8 point difference. Brown already had his bye, Blackmon's is next week, Boykin's value is obviously transitory, but you still have Hilton and Allen available with their bye completed. If we assume Boykin still has value next week, eating that zero would be giving up 6 or more points of EV in exchange for your 5th receiver, who isn't really substantially better than some of the stuff on the waiver wire. Even if we assume Harvin is 2 points better than random waiver wire receiver, you need to use him 3 times to make up for that 6 point hit of EV.
I'm no fantasy football expert so I may have completely missed something, but unless I missed something I don't think this decision is particularly close (aside from who to add and who to drop, but I like Ellington's potential upside.)
This sentence makes Hillis and Ellington completely useless. Dropping anyone on your team and picking up one of these guys goes completely against what you said your goal was.
But he's saying he doesn't care about making the playoffs unless his team is good enough to win it all. Dropping future points for points this weeks doesn't follow this line of thinking. If your goal is only to make the playoffs then I agree with dropping a WR for points this week. Maybe I'm missing understanding because typically I agree with your lines groovin
If instead of talking about Allen, Harvin, and Spiller, we were talking about something like Forte, Foster, Marshall, Andre Johnson, and Torrey Smith, then yeah, you'd probably be forced to take a 0 because those guys are all too good to drop. But Allen and Harvin, whichever one prefers dropping:
1) Might not even be needed in a future game.
2) Are not a particularly large upgrade over the random WRs on the waiver wire.
Just to use something publicly accessible, on FantasyPros, for the rest of the season rankings of their top 20% people, they have Stevie Johnson ranked around 30th among WRs for the rest of the season, compared to Allen 26th and Harvin 35th. I think that Harvin rating is a bit low, but either way, we're talking about pretty fungible commodities here. Taking a 0 because you don't want to cut Torrey Smith, fine. Taking a 0 because you don't want to cut a Harvin or an Allen, I don't think the math works out there.
#1 is 100% correct, even after factoring in byes, although given the state of my RB's and the potential for injury, I can easily see needing/wanting one of them as my flex.
#2 is of course subjective. FWIW, I think they're both significant upgrades over WW WR's, especially if Harvin gets to 100% and is utilized to his full potential at some point, but that's a mater of opinion. I want no parts of Stevie Johnson over either Allen or Harvin.
1. Drop Allen so I can use Ellington today and roll with Boykin the rest of the season and drop Ellington after today b/c I need a QB for my QB (Stafford) being on bye.
2. Keep Allen and play down a man this week and drop Boykin next week for the QB.
For the next several weeks, I think Allen and Boykin are close enough to not matter much (although Boykin will take a hit once Jones comes back), but when/if Cobb comes back at 100%, Boykin likely receives a big downgrade. However, by that point, I'm banking on Harvin being good enough to start over both of them anyway.
I know the consensus seems to be to drop Allen, but just wanted to sum up the situation as I'm thinking out loud. Any last thoughts/opinions?
Option 1 makes more sense factoring in Stafford.
I should have specifically mentioned the Stafford aspect in my initial post, more my fault than yours. Thanks for the input. I'm beginning to lean that way myself.
Agree, unfortunately I'm 98% sure Allen will be claimed if I drop him (I'm spending the weekend with half the league).