Nflx 2013
Obi One
Senior Member
While some think it's crazy to bet the preseason, others use it to grow their bankroll before the real season starts. Around +10 units last year in preseason, let's see whether it's repeatable. As usual comments, questions and discussions are welcome.
The NFL preseason kicks of this sunday with the Hall of Fame game. From what I've read, the defense in Miami is clearly ahead of the offense. Miami had a solid defense last year and they figure to be better this year. In Dallas they're implementing the 4-3 under Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli. Starters won't play more than 1 series, that is, if they play at all. Looking for a snoozefest here, with the defenses leading the way.
242 MIA/DAL U34
The NFL preseason kicks of this sunday with the Hall of Fame game. From what I've read, the defense in Miami is clearly ahead of the offense. Miami had a solid defense last year and they figure to be better this year. In Dallas they're implementing the 4-3 under Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli. Starters won't play more than 1 series, that is, if they play at all. Looking for a snoozefest here, with the defenses leading the way.
242 MIA/DAL U34
Comments
--Wynn
Wynn,
I read that Romo is being eased back into action after minor offseason back surgery. He hasn't participated in the Cowboys OTA's at all. Most probably won't see any action on Sunday. The 2 quarterbacks who will lead the way for the Cowboys are 3rd and 4th stringers Nick Stephens and Alex Tanney. Below is a quote from Blogging the Boys training camp report for today's practice:
"Although these and other young'uns played well, the second and third units struggled a bit during the live action. Neither offensive unit managed to move the ball particularly well. A Nick Stephens-led drive ended in a punt; this was followed by a three-and-out with Alex Tanney at the helm. "
Let's hope these 3rd and 4th stringers play just the same on Sunday.
- Tomlin's preseason record 19-6. He coaches to win games, no matter the importance of those games. Tom Coughlin 18-18 but only 10-14 last 6 years. I like it that the Steelers are playing at home. After last year's dissapointing campaign this team will be very motivated. The Giants are a formidable opponent as they have quitte some depth at the skill positions. Especially at QB with reserves Carr and Painter who will see ample playing time. As most NFLX bettors know, contrary to the regular season, it's not the star players that decide the games, it's the 2nd and 3rd stringers that will help you win your bet in the 2nd half of games. Also coaches tendencies are worth a look and should be strongly considered. In this case I believe the bookmakers have build this info into the line already, but I believe that most bets will come in on Pittsburgh and they will even move the number from -3 to -3.5 or more. If you believe that the Giants are the correct side in this game, you'd be better off waiting till friday or saturday next week to bet it. This game is on saturday the 10th of august.
5 Dimes has -2.5 -130 I laid the -3 -110 here in town.
Thanks Kane,
A defensive score or special teams score can definitely screw the under. Problem is that you can't cap for that. Hoping for a puntfest. I just thought about that today, just 2 more months till the NBA camps starts again. I will most probably shut down my NFL capping and focus solely on the NBA come november. I honestly can't wait for it!
- The quarterback battle in Philly, A driven Tom Brady (he regained his parking spot this year), Quality backup QB's all over the place (Vick/Foles, Barkley, Mallet, Kafka), Uptempo offenses, And a new defense in Philly (which isn't a good thing per se). These are the reasons why I like the over.
Everything is pointing to a good offense in Arizona. The OL-line got better. Tom Moore is the new Off. Coordinator there, and I believe the defense will regress as Ray Horton left for Cleveland.
Can't go wrong with a GB Over in the preseason. McCarthy is 19-5 to the over and 14-2 last 4 seasons with the Packers
I just got down at 39 Over bet it a bit, just a bit
Thanks for that info scartown. Any chance you have a link? I have ats stats for coaches, but not the under/over
39 is a very nice number, offshores I have all opened at 40.
Here you go
http://www.beyondthebets.com/nfl-preseason-betting-trends-under-mccarthy-packers-games-go-over-all-the-time/
sun 4th Hall of Fame Game: 242 MIA/DAL U34
fri 9th: 267 NE/PHI O40.5
fri 9th: 269 ARI/GB O35
sat 10th: 280 PIT -3
Any reason why the pit line is now-1.5?
Only reason I can come up with is sharp money on NYG as they have a back-up QB who played well in preseason last year (David Carr). I also believe that the public perception is that the Giants have more depth overall. I absolutely got the worst number so far. From what I'm reading camp is going well in LaTrobe for the Steelers. The offensive line is not too shabby, running backs and receivers are have good practices. La'Veon Bell is turning heads and might be a big surprise this season. After last year's rift all is well between Ben and Todd Haley(OC). Both met in the middle and are pleased with the results so far (a more uptempo offense, with good balance between pass/rush) As you may know, Roethlisberger likes the no-huddle and wasn't pleased with the slow offense last year. Pittsburgh's backup QB's are former starter Gradkowski and rookie Landry Jones. I still like the Steelers at _3, but could have gotten a much better number.
Back with better picks for week 2 of NFLX.
2 things I got from that game:
- NY Giants are good and have depth. Their Defensive Line looks like it's back to old strength
- Steelers depth a problem. Their offensive line needs to gel. Even though they went up against a strong DL yesterday. They don't have the same depth at QB like they used to have in the past, so we might be looking at a couple more losses ATS in preseason for them.
404 BAL -4.5
406 CAR/PHI OVER 41.5
402 DET/CLE OVER 40.5
For Saturday 17th:
428 SEATTLE -4