Thanks! The lines have been inflated for the past year, since the NCAA tournament where it seemed like every game went over. They did it for football and inflate the favorites for baseball. I've lasted this long, but make sure I stay under the radar. I got the Kansas line before the big jump at -5. They really move the totals on the NBA totals. That's usually at least 5 points. They just recently adjusted moving the half time total to only being 3 points higher.
I wasn't going to play this one since my numbers show the line as Oregon -1 (with the adjustment for Adams). However, I talked with a UCLA alum for a while this afternoon (that knows his stuff) and he's convinced me that the loss of Adams will be felt more than the line is showing, mostly due to his ability to create havoc at the defensive end. Powell is capable to step in and start, however his minutes have been decreasing as the season has gone along and he just isn't the impact player that Adams is (at either end of the floor). Oregon is also much deeper and is coming off a comfortable win, while UCLA will be playing a tough game for the 3rd straight night with basically a 6 man rotation (either there is no margain for error with foul trouble, or they'll have to go to someone, probably Parker, who has only been playing spot minutes as of late). I just think it's a good spot for Oregon tonight.
Tommy - Sorry for asking about a game that you didn't play, but figured there might be someone else that would want to know. What line do you have for the Louisville/Cuse game and what would you play? The reason that I ask is my local moves the lines drastically. First, they automatically add at least two points to the favorites and then when there is heavy action on the dog, they move the line I favor of that. The totals, they add at least 4 points to the total on both the game and half, again, if there is a serious line movement on the total, then the line would probably be moved to what the line actually is. Nonetheless, they have the Louisville game at -2 and 129.5, just to give you an idea. Normally, the drastic line movements for the dogs are when the line is less than 3 for the book, by bringing the line down and even flipping the favorite. The common pattern for them with this line would have just left the line at -5, like it is, instead of bringing it up to -7. Sorry for the long post, but this made me curious if I should jump on Louisville or is the book telling me something. Thanks!
Wow, I just read this. There really isn't anything else of value I could add, except listen to the advice of Tommy and Jeff, their responses are spot on.
Thanks again guys! The under didn't come in, but I put more on Louisville. Started out not looking good, ended well. Thanks again for all of your input!
Tommy - Based on your first round picks I have some idea who you like, but could you give us your thoughts on teams that might make a deep run in the tournament? Especially interested in any lower seeds that you feel might surprise and go to the 4 - 8 - 16 levels. Or any 1 or 2 seeds that might go out early.From what I have read and heard thus far it sounds like this might be the most wide open ever.
TL, James Madison top scorer just was arrested. In case you did not know.
Goins is suspended for the 1st half on Wednesday night. His rebounding to me is more important to them than his scoring, as he's really a "volume" scorer that takes a bunch of shots but shoots a low percentage (his offensive rating is pretty bad). He's also taken on less of the scoring load as of late.
545. St John's/St Joe's over 129
549. Kentucky -4.5 Robert Morris 2 UNITS (being forced on the road for an environment like this is the spark that Kentucky needed to take this tournament seriously)
553. Norfolk State/Virginia over 123
557. Washington +5 BYU
575. Rider -2.5 Hartford 1.5 UNITS
583. Savannah State/East Carolina over 128.5
586. Loyola-Maryland -6.5 Boston University
629. Charlotte +9.5 Providence 1.5 UNITS
632. UMass -4.5 Stony Brook 2 UNITS
659. Elon/Canisus over 143
667. Oral Roberts/UT-Arlington over 133
673. High Point/UC Irvine over 133
And if any of you guys in/around Philly (or coming into town for the NCAA games) are going out on Friday and looking for a good place to watch the games, I'll be out at O'Neals at 3rd and South all day and night (and of equal importance to the games/drinks, it's only a block up from Jim's Steaks).
549. Kentucky -4.5 Robert Morris 2 UNITS (being forced on the road for an environment like this is the spark that Kentucky needed to take this tournament seriously)
No joke. Cal forced them out of town. The story about not enough staff to host a game here was total bullshit. Cal wanted to get them on the road to go see what kids who care about basketball look like in a 3000 seat gym. He was the one who declined the home game, not the university.
No joke. Cal forced them out of town. The story about not enough staff to host a game here was total bullshit. Cal wanted to get them on the road to go see what kids who care about basketball look like in a 3000 seat gym. He was the one who declined the home game, not the university.
It all just seemed like such a weird story. I understand the issues with Rupp and the NCAAs, but I would have thought one of the other gyms (either on campus or in the area) would have worked. But, then you would have had a fanbase that's pretty much apathetic about the NIT, with a game against a team that they should crush on paper but is really motivated. If it really was his call, then I love it since now he really gets to see what they're made of.
Goins is suspended for the 1st half on Wednesday night. His rebounding to me is more important to them than his scoring, as he's really a "volume" scorer that takes a bunch of shots but shoots a low percentage (his offensive rating is pretty bad). He's also taken on less of the scoring load as of late.
Interesting, I read he can't leave Virginia. Good luck.
Comments
539. Oregon -1.5 UCLA
I wasn't going to play this one since my numbers show the line as Oregon -1 (with the adjustment for Adams). However, I talked with a UCLA alum for a while this afternoon (that knows his stuff) and he's convinced me that the loss of Adams will be felt more than the line is showing, mostly due to his ability to create havoc at the defensive end. Powell is capable to step in and start, however his minutes have been decreasing as the season has gone along and he just isn't the impact player that Adams is (at either end of the floor). Oregon is also much deeper and is coming off a comfortable win, while UCLA will be playing a tough game for the 3rd straight night with basically a 6 man rotation (either there is no margain for error with foul trouble, or they'll have to go to someone, probably Parker, who has only been playing spot minutes as of late). I just think it's a good spot for Oregon tonight.
Wow, I just read this. There really isn't anything else of value I could add, except listen to the advice of Tommy and Jeff, their responses are spot on.
My Dad was one of the handicappers for the original Computer Group. Google search: "The Story of The Computer Group" - We certainly don't print money
anymore as many have learned how to keep a database since the 1990s but we are looking for outs that pay and offering a free roll to anyone that will
guarantee their guy paying.
Thanks WASP! I'll have to google that. Unfortunately, I won't be in Vegas anytime soon.
One play for Sunday, 3/17
888. Miami (Fl) -2.5 North Carolina
Thanks
No. If I was on the ball yesterday, I would have played VCU at pick or -1. However, I won't play it at 2 or 2.5.
Hey okie, hope ur well. First of all, it's the slu under not the vcu under, lol. I'm keeping w the slu under trend. Their d is tough.
GL.
I'm currently seeing VCU at +2.5. Am I missing something?
I'm guessing he meant he would have played St. Louis at PK or -1.
I did, thanks.
Play for Wednesday, 3/20
James Madison +1.5 LIU Brooklyn
720. VCU -7 Akron 1.5 UNITS
726. Pittsburgh -4.5 Wichita State
731. Oregon +3 Oklahoma State
824. Duke -17.5 Albany 1.5 UNITS
827. Florida Gulf Coast +13 Georgetown
837. Iowa State E Notre Dame
844. Wisconsin -5 Mississippi 1.5 UNITS
851. Pacific +12 Miami (Fl)
Edited to correct the Wisconsin line.
Goins is suspended for the 1st half on Wednesday night. His rebounding to me is more important to them than his scoring, as he's really a "volume" scorer that takes a bunch of shots but shoots a low percentage (his offensive rating is pretty bad). He's also taken on less of the scoring load as of late.
This is correct. It should have read Wisconsin -5, and I updated the post. I appreciate you catching it Mikie.
545. St John's/St Joe's over 129
549. Kentucky -4.5 Robert Morris 2 UNITS (being forced on the road for an environment like this is the spark that Kentucky needed to take this tournament seriously)
553. Norfolk State/Virginia over 123
557. Washington +5 BYU
575. Rider -2.5 Hartford 1.5 UNITS
583. Savannah State/East Carolina over 128.5
586. Loyola-Maryland -6.5 Boston University
629. Charlotte +9.5 Providence 1.5 UNITS
632. UMass -4.5 Stony Brook 2 UNITS
659. Elon/Canisus over 143
667. Oral Roberts/UT-Arlington over 133
673. High Point/UC Irvine over 133
It all just seemed like such a weird story. I understand the issues with Rupp and the NCAAs, but I would have thought one of the other gyms (either on campus or in the area) would have worked. But, then you would have had a fanbase that's pretty much apathetic about the NIT, with a game against a team that they should crush on paper but is really motivated. If it really was his call, then I love it since now he really gets to see what they're made of.
Interesting, I read he can't leave Virginia. Good luck.