My comment that I made to my wife about Sesame Street this week...Did Gordon find the fountain of youth or something? I swear that the dude hasn't aged a day since I last had an extended period of watching it about 25 years ago.
And I should probably be happy that he's into some new stuff now (Seaame Street and Backyardigans), as the Hot Dog Dance was starting to make my blood boil.
I think that's harious about Gordon! They have even put a couple of white feathers on Big Bird for Gods sake!
Secondly...I've now spent almost 11 hours now watching hoops today, with only about a 10 minute break when my wife got home so that I could watch my son while she got changed. In those 10 minutes, we flipped to the Backyardigans, and since that time, I haven't been able to get the stupid song out of my head. This is brutal. Is there a cure for it (like different ways that people use to get rid of the hiccups)?
I'm a stay at home dad of a 3 1/2 year old. if you want to drive yourself bat shit crazy, turn on The Fresh Beat Club. I've come close to suffocating myself with an Elmo doll because of that show:)
I'm a stay at home dad of a 3 1/2 year old. if you want to drive yourself bat shit crazy, turn on The Fresh Beat Club. I've come close to suffocating myself with an Elmo doll because of that show:)
My best friend has a son that's a year older than mine, and he warned me about it early on. Thusfar, I've been able to keep it out of the rotation.
And I should probably be happy that he's into some new stuff now (Seaame Street and Backyardigans), as the Hot Dog Dance was starting to make my blood boil.
823. North Carolina State -1 Virginia
857. Kent State +5 Akron
866. Kansas -5.5 Iowa State
882. Pacific -2 Cal Poly SLO
894. Morgan State -4.5 Bethune Cookman 1.5 UNITS
Tommy - Sorry for asking about a game that you didn't play, but figured there might be someone else that would want to know. What line do you have for the Louisville/Cuse game and what would you play? The reason that I ask is my local moves the lines drastically. First, they automatically add at least two points to the favorites and then when there is heavy action on the dog, they move the line I favor of that. The totals, they add at least 4 points to the total on both the game and half, again, if there is a serious line movement on the total, then the line would probably be moved to what the line actually is. Nonetheless, they have the Louisville game at -2 and 129.5, just to give you an idea. Normally, the drastic line movements for the dogs are when the line is less than 3 for the book, by bringing the line down and even flipping the favorite. The common pattern for them with this line would have just left the line at -5, like it is, instead of bringing it up to -7. Sorry for the long post, but this made me curious if I should jump on Louisville or is the book telling me something. Thanks!
Tommy - Sorry for asking about a game that you didn't play, but figured there might be someone else that would want to know. What line do you have for the Louisville/Cuse game and what would you play? The reason that I ask is my local moves the lines drastically. First, they automatically add at least two points to the favorites and then when there is heavy action on the dog, they move the line I favor of that. The totals, they add at least 4 points to the total on both the game and half, again, if there is a serious line movement on the total, then the line would probably be moved to what the line actually is. Nonetheless, they have the Louisville game at -2 and 129.5, just to give you an idea. Normally, the drastic line movements for the dogs are when the line is less than 3 for the book, by bringing the line down and even flipping the favorite. The common pattern for them with this line would have just left the line at -5, like it is, instead of bringing it up to -7. Sorry for the long post, but this made me curious if I should jump on Louisville or is the book telling me something. Thanks!
Don't try to read into what he's doing. Take the edge that he gives you over the real market, which is far sharper than his market. Play under and Louisville. Large.
This is assuming that he'll pay and that you won't get cut.
Don't try to read into what he's doing. Take the edge that he gives you over the real market, which is far sharper than his market. Play under and Louisville. Large.
This is assuming that he'll pay and that you won't get cut.
Thank you! This has been the pattern all year with crazy lines.
Don't try to read into what he's doing. Take the edge that he gives you over the real market, which is far sharper than his market. Play under and Louisville. Large.
This is assuming that he'll pay and that you won't get cut.
Exactly. If he's really moving 1st half lines by 2 points just for the heck of it, then it A) is easily beatable over the long term and I can't believe that this guy could possibly last long doing stuff that ridiculous.
I would not assume that he is not going to pay you. He is obviously figured out most of his players take favorites and overs, so he shades that way. No different from my local always shading on 49ers. He is probably rooting for you to win, so keep betting the bad lines. just my opinion.
Thanks guys! There's very few times that a favorite's line is less than what the real line is, so dogs and unders are the way to go long term. Thank you for all of your input! The line was -1 before I sent the message, but now still at -2. The common line movement would be like the Kansas line, which is now -8. Thanks again for your input! Louisville it is!!
I would advise picking a couple of these a day and mixing in some of your more "normal" plays as well. I don't think you ever have to play into a bad line, but give him a couple lines that are fair prices and take a couple of those plays that are off lines for yourself. Slowly bleed this, don't all of a sudden start banging every line that's off. Be aware that if you win too much, you'll at best get cut and at worst get stiffed.
Thanks guys! There's very few times that a favorite's line is less than what the real line is, so dogs and unders are the way to go long term. Thank you for all of your input! The line was -1 before I sent the message, but now still at -2. The common line movement would be like the Kansas line, which is now -8. Thanks again for your input! Louisville it is!!
I hope you have another out though. Your example of Kansas 8 and you can still find 5. That is a very big spread. Not that I suggest trying to middle, but at those variance it might be worth it, especially if you can lay less then -110.
I hope you have another out though. Your example of Kansas 8 and you can still find 5. That is a very big spread. Not that I suggest trying to middle, but at those variance it might be worth it, especially if you can lay less then -110.
This is horrible advice. Play the off line as heavy as you can get away with. It's enormous +EV. Don't give some of that back by playing a fair line somewhere else.
I hope you have another out though. Your example of Kansas 8 and you can still find 5. That is a very big spread. Not that I suggest trying to middle, but at those variance it might be worth it, especially if you can lay less then -110.
No reason to middle, you're just giving away juice. Best bet long run is to just take advantage of his bad lines whenever you can. I really like Kansas today, but I'd likely play Kansas State if I could get them at +8.
Comments
Plays for Friday, 3/15
839. Butler -1 LaSalle
847. Tennessee -1.5 Alabama 1.5 UNITS
878. New Mexico -2 San Diego State
879. Colorado State +4.5 UNLV
boom
I'm a stay at home dad of a 3 1/2 year old. if you want to drive yourself bat shit crazy, turn on The Fresh Beat Club. I've come close to suffocating myself with an Elmo doll because of that show:)
My best friend has a son that's a year older than mine, and he warned me about it early on. Thusfar, I've been able to keep it out of the rotation.
Hot Dog Hot Dog Hot Diggity Dooooooog
I kinda like that one actually.
I didn't mind it the first few thousand times that I heard it...
823. North Carolina State -1 Virginia
857. Kent State +5 Akron
866. Kansas -5.5 Iowa State
882. Pacific -2 Cal Poly SLO
894. Morgan State -4.5 Bethune Cookman 1.5 UNITS
Plays for Saturday, 3/16
514. Memphis -5 Southern Mississippi
532. Kansas -4 Kansas State
542. Pacific -1.5 UC Irvine
556. Morgan State -2 North Carolina A&T 2 UNITS
i'll just have to remember this when i get screwed later on tonight
They were up 7 in the final minute of regulation before they coughed it away. But lucky nonetheless.
Nothing tops that Richmond game!!!
Pastner's teams there have typically been awful in end game situations. Today was definitely no exception.
Don't try to read into what he's doing. Take the edge that he gives you over the real market, which is far sharper than his market. Play under and Louisville. Large.
This is assuming that he'll pay and that you won't get cut.
Thank you! This has been the pattern all year with crazy lines.
Exactly. If he's really moving 1st half lines by 2 points just for the heck of it, then it A) is easily beatable over the long term and
I hope you have another out though. Your example of Kansas 8 and you can still find 5. That is a very big spread. Not that I suggest trying to middle, but at those variance it might be worth it, especially if you can lay less then -110.
This is horrible advice. Play the off line as heavy as you can get away with. It's enormous +EV. Don't give some of that back by playing a fair line somewhere else.
No reason to middle, you're just giving away juice. Best bet long run is to just take advantage of his bad lines whenever you can. I really like Kansas today, but I'd likely play Kansas State if I could get them at +8.