What is your edge? (Hint: most of you don't have one)
tribecalledjeff
Senior Member
When you place a bet, you're gambling that you're smarter than the market that set the line (we're ignoring openers here). I'm curious to hear what most of you think your edge over the market is. When you get down to it, it's pretty arrogant to make a bet. You're saying that the market is wrong and you're right. Why are you smarter than the market? Why will you win in the long run? What's your edge? Curious to hear some replies.
Comments
Am I smarter than the market? I think that I'm smarter than most (and have a better chance of winning in the long run than most), but there are a lot of people out there that are way smarter than me and have a better chance of winning than me going forward. I'll say this though, I think I have a better chance of winning going forward than most in those sports that I follow (due to a combination of my understanding of the sports, understanding of math/statistics needed to break down the sports, having the ability to create what I think are strong power ratings, and most importantly putting in the work/focusing on just those sports). I've learned a lot in the past several years, but also look forward to sharpening up as I continue to learn more and evolve.
And once we get some replies, I hope that you also share thoughts about your answers to these questions. And don't hesitate to tell me what you think of my answers (I'm sure you won't, but am curious what you think).
The other thing I forgot to add is that both sports are ones that I love, and ones that I'd be reading about/watching all the time even if I wasn't betting. Long before I started gambling, I'd still be watching a soccer game between any two random countries or watching an Ivy league hoops game between two also-rans just because I love them (and also enjoy reading about and following them). I know that some are able to successfully bet sports that they don't necessarily enjoy themselves, but I could never do it.
Thanks for starting this thread Tribe!
Where i have an edge anywhere...it is called RAS
I'm smarter than the market, because I put in countless hours of work, and I'm always prepared. It's all about being smart, working hard, and getting in early, even if not at the open. Like Tommy, I also don't mind betting late into the market, if a play gets steamed and it's far enough from my number. That's all about having confidence in your skills. Placing yourself around other sharp people isn't a bad idea either.
I'm not sure that I will win continue winning long term. Even if one currently has an edge in a sport, they must be able to adapt to the market to continue winning in the long term. They must also continue to have those traits that I mentioned above.
Edge varies from sport to sport and depends on the type of wager.
That's not what I'm getting at. Sure you can pass games, but if and when you play a game, you're doing so because you think that you have an edge.
How and why is your criteria better than the market? If you decide you like the Knicks at +4 or better and the current line is +2, then you bet it. That bet implies that you are smarter than everybody who has helped to make that line what it is. What is it that makes you smarter? What makes your opinion better than the market than that of the market that shaped the line?
But I agree that nothing beats hard work IN ANYTHING! The harder I work the luckier I get !
right now, i am -ev capping myself.......i used to be good enough to win, but just don't have the time (and it sucks).....but i am still +ev with my ability to know who is legit and who is not.......that is not to say I tail someone else on every play, but it is a very big part of the current strategy......i admit i make my $$$ doing other things and this is mostly entertainment.....but i am ULTRA competitive and that makes me want to win pretty bad, even if it is just a few bucks over a season...
i will leave with this -- the market is NOT efficient enough to not be beat by someone of above average skills -- i believe that
To go along with TommyL and bburritos I think I have an edge in small markets because unlike the major markets which are very efficient, the smaller markets are not and there are ways for me to have more current information than the bookmakers.
One thing I have struggled with is the MMA market as it was amazingly soft when the first started offering lines and I could do little work to know more about the fight than the bookmakers. This is completely false now and the MMA market is very efficient except for rare occasions. I have had to change my methods and have struggled a bit at times.
I really only see guys with complex adaptive math models as having the ability to have and edge in the larger markets, and they would be betting openers anyway.
Here's how you get an edge. You create your own data. You then test this data and create a formula with this data. After you are satisfied that this data produces statistically significant results, you implement the data. Therefore, you are using data that no one else has implemented and that uniqueness creates an edge. Having an edge comes from being innovative. Quantify something that other investors have yet to quantify and then implement it into your investment strategies. It's like a quote from the Oregon football program that goes something like, "Yesterday's fast is today's slow." I.E. if you are doing what was considered successful yesterday then you are too late. Think of it this way guys, don't ask "What do today's stats say about these teams?" Instead ask the question: "What independent variables will predict where the stats will be and therefore where these teams will be?" And if you want me to clarify: don't play the bookmakers's game (you can't beat them at it), but instead play an entirely new game that they are not accustomed to. Let them focus on the commonly accepted predictive variables and you go out and find the variables that they have yet to discover and/or implement properly in a predictive fashion. Play the game that you have created and if you do that, then you will win. Play their game and you're done. And never stop searching for more truths (What up Socrates?!). Question everything! I don't care what it is or who it is from: question it, investigate it, and then put a value on it. Then continue to evaluate it in order to ensure that the value you placed on it continues to be accurate. (like tribe said, it's a lot of work!) Always remember the computer group. What they did was use an innovative method (the computer) to create better fundamental numbers than the linesmakers could make at that point in time. Yeah, we could sit here and get a bunch of info that the linesmakers are not aware of and find edges, but if we develop a linesmaking system that creates better fundamental numbers than the sportsbook and that is built upon independent variables that the LMs have yet to quantify and implement effectively, we can do serious damage. An arrogant goal for sure, but then again, I'm pretty friggin arrogant ;-) Remember, our advantage is that we are not constrained by a rigid business framework. We can adapt in an instant and we can use the products of that adaptation to challenge the accepted predictive methods of the current time.
And finally, don't you ever let anyone tell you that you can't do something. I believe in you and I know of the power of the human spirit. Work hard and get it done. And when that day comes that you beat my ass, I am going to be proud of you, smile, and utter a soft "atta boy!" But you better bring it, b/c it's 5:55 am and I'm working, what are you doing? Sleeping? :-)
Your Friend,
Bull
For example, when the NY Jets played Tennessee on a Monday night game, there was so much info on the Jets it was overwhelming. Everyone knew the Jets were lousy on offense and could not score with Sanchez so why bother trying to break them down anymore? Studying Tennessee was the key. The Titans had issues with the defense and had to have a good showing to save Jerry Gray's job. Did a lot of people know this? It was not even that big of news here, but I knew from local sources this was HUGE for him. The Jets were the perfect opponent as they have no offense. That small tidbit is enough to lean (under) in this game (41.5.) Obviously, more work was done but now I attempt to sway myself from my initial lean....I could not. I did care who won the game and honestly was not sure either way. Final Tennessee 14 NY Jets 10.
I might call it a slight edge and I feel better when I place the wager like I have done my homework, but I would not attempt to do this with the Arizona Cardinals or the Miami Dolphins.....too far away. There are too many games to attempt to cap, so placing a larger wager on one game is better, IMO, that splitting the same amount on three games.
Anyway, it works for me.
--WynnBig
My OP is mostly referring to people that bet on gamedays. Watch how many people post NFL plays on Sunday morning (maybe not today because there's only 2 games), college football plays on Saturday morning, etc.
--WynnBIg
Betting nba I think the most important thing is valueing change, steph curry is out, should g.s. be 6 point dogs to the hornets? Also betting teams for what they are, you would have made a lot of money this season betting lakers opponents on the ML. Nba is my favorite based on my love for the sport, length of the season and the fact that there is always change. Magic start the season hot, bet them, once they tank find another team that's either hot or cold! Betting over/unders or half time I believe u need a math model and your own data. Sorry for the double post, miss clicked on the iPad - great topic
Let's say you have a chance to run a book that opens games only an hour before kickoff/tipoff; would you rather have a crowd of thoughtful bettors like gather on sites like this, or a line of $10 Joe Blow parlay card types straight out of a Vegas book on a busy Sunday? I know what I'd pick! :thumbup1: If you say the closing market is without any opportunity that can hit 52%, then it shouldn't matter.
[By contrast, let me run the horse racing side of the book, where I have automatic 15-25% juice, and I'll take all comers for any bet I can afford to pay out.]
I think to have a true +EV edge you must be either handicapping non-BCS conferences, college totals (hoops & fball), and/or MLB, if we are talking the 5 top U.S. markets...to win in other liquid markets like NFL, NBA, and even BCS/TV games you MUST be playing openers are at least before the market fully strengthens.
For an individual handicapper, I think the one sport/one type of bet thing is the way to go....
--WynnBig
Not trying to persuade u from betting or making picks but how do u think Vegas was built
This type of injury information (or in this case specific mis-information) is a very important aspect of NBA modeling IMO.
Information is everywhere in the NBA if you know where to look for it, not saying it always pays off as the NBA can be a volatile animal...but yesterday I knew that Steph Curry was going to start very early in the day and that it was 50/50 on David Lee.
Warriors made my play list yesterday based on several factors that included in no particular order....Knowing Curry was in, Warriors have been terrific in back to backs this season as well as coming off losses, this was a "big" game if you will for Jarrett Jack & Carl Landry as they felt the Hornets had given up on them after last season, Hornets have Eric Gordon back in the fold (who while putting up solid numbers it is clear he is not close to his explosive self) and I have found that teams struggle defensively in their rotations when working a player back in the fold after missing half a season, last game of road trip for Warriors who knew they had Clippers waiting for them on MLK day. The drop off from starting Carl Landry and backing him up with Dramond Green is minimal compared to having to start Jarrett Jack and backing him up with Charles Jenkins. So knowing that Curry starting was worth more to me than Lee in and Curry out (value wise) even if I had known Lee was out 100%.
Not that the info and numbers always pan out, evidenced by the T'Wolves defensive stalwarts in the backcourt (Rubio/Ridnour/Barrea) holding the Rockets in check to the tune of 79 total points, in which case I was on the OVER
Crazy league...all you can do is put yourself in the most +EV situations that you can using all the math, info, and motivational/situational aspects that you have access to.
Don't get me wrong...numbers are paramount. However IMO there is no other sport (professional or college) that situations & injuries matter more.
Just my 2c
After my post earlier I got to thinking-if handicapping and wagering on games was so easy then why are most of us still working for a living. Sure I wish I had a major bankroll so I can sit and analyze games all day but I don't so I play very cautiously. If it was that easy I'd be living in the Carribean. LOL
Actually this is not the case at all.
The Hornets opened 5 or 5.5 depending on where you look and this was before Lee even played in the game vs the Spurs where his injury occured UTR late in the game. The opening line was indicative of Curry being assumed out, it had nothing to do with Lee.
Not that the line was made entirely in part of Curry being assumed out, other factors were that N.O. has been solid as of late/Warriors in midst of tough portion of schedule and playing on back to back/revenge spot for Hornets etc etc etc....
I also have over 500 systems that I use across all the sports. And none of that specific crap like play on NFC East RD after losing by less than a TD in a Monday night game. They are all pretty generic and cover every team in each sport, not just a handful of them. While these are my secondary handicapping tools, I do use them to sway me on games that are close plays, or to make a strong play a 1.5 or 2 unit play.
Still, the bottom line is bust your ass. Sports wagering is just another retirement vehicle for me, and I treat it as such. It's a lot more fun that tracking a 401(k), but you have to make sure your money management is in place.