Football Coaching Scenario - What would you do?
TommyL
Super Moderator
The talk in another thread about fouling/not fouling late when up 3 in a basketball game got me thinking about a football scenario that happened earlier this year. I'm interested to see what others think of it, since I have a strong opinion one way while is seems that most (at least everyone that I was watching this game with) felt the exact opposite...
You're down 15, with lets say something like 4-5 minutes left in the game (and a couple of timeouts left). You just scored a TD to cut it to 9, and now have to decide whether to kick the XP or go for 2. What do you do (kick or go for 2)? And why?
You're down 15, with lets say something like 4-5 minutes left in the game (and a couple of timeouts left). You just scored a TD to cut it to 9, and now have to decide whether to kick the XP or go for 2. What do you do (kick or go for 2)? And why?
Comments
This almost never happens though and the most common reason I hear involves psycho-babble about making your team feel they have a shot as opposed to demoralizing them if you go for 2 and fail.
This is exactly what I think. You HAVE to know how many possessions you are going to need in order to manage the time properly. Where and when to call timeouts, if you need onside kicks, how much time you can take on a drive etc all depend on this. You have to get it over with because it eliminates all uncertainty.
100% agree.
Also 100% agree.
If you do this, you are down by 8, so you still have to get that 2 point conversion one way or another. Calling it a one possession game is misleading because it is only truly a one possession game if you make the two point conversion. If you fail, it is actually a 2 possession game. The sooner you find out how many possessions it will take, the sooner you can act accordingly. By putting this off, most of the time you will find yourself in a situation where it is too late to do anything if you don't convert the 2 point conversion. And even if you score as quickly as possible (thinking there is a chance you don't convert it) and do end up tying the game, you might have left the other team too much time.
You would be suprised how many people agree with what parlaykid said. Most fans, announcers, and even coaches think of it like he does
That's exactly why I posted this question. It seems that announcers and coaches pretty much universally agree with the line of thinking that you kick the XP so that you can keep it as a "one score" game. When it came up earlier this season, I mentioned it as being a pet peeve of mine to a room full of guys, and pretty much everyone in the room thought that I was wrong. I was told that I was thinking about it too much from a math perspective, and that you had to consider a team's "motivation" and that you would gain more momentum if you kept it a one score game. So, I kept asking around and kept finding myself to be in the minority. I hadn't seen this scenario talked about before on a forum, but Goats told me that it did come up at SSB years ago and the sharp guys there agreed that you have to go for 2.
I want to know where I stand as soon as possible. If I need 2 scores, I'm going to call plays (and maybe onside kick depending on the situation) much differently than if I'm down 1 score. Plus, you also have the option to kick a FG and go for an onside kick if down 9, whereas if you wait for the 2 point conversion, you have no idea if a FG will do you any good. From a math standpoint, it seems very obvious. Then again, many thought I was crazy in the late-90's when I'd always want teams to foul up 3, and at the time it was considered a pretty "rougue" strategy.
There's not enough information in your post to make an informed decision. What's the spread and what side am I on?
It's amazing how good I've gotten with these scenarios from playing Madden.
just sayin...................
I agree going for 1 on the first T.D. I disagree when you say it's psycho-babble (to put it in your words) but football is an emotional game and if you miss the 2 after scoring your back to two scores that has to effect a team knowing you just laid it out there and scored and now your in the same position you were before that score. Kick for one and the hope of tying the game and a possible a shot to win remains strong where if you miss your head is down.
I would have liked to see BB's decision, too bad they couldn't get in the end zone. I think with over ~6min and 3 timeouts I'm kicking the xtra point to cut it to 8. I think the line is somewhere between 5-6 min where I switch to going for 2 first to determine how many more times I'll need to score.
I agree completely. I guess there is some point where it really doesn't matter any more, and you have to onsides kick it regardless (but being a math guy, I'd still want to know what I need since it always opens up the option for the long FG/onsides kick/hail mary even with something like 30 seconds left, remote as the chances may be). I'd probably go for 2 anytime from the start of the 4th quarter on, since 1 score vs. 2 scores could change a lot of your decisions going forward.