Betting Talk

Football Coaching Scenario - What would you do?

TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
edited January 2013 in Sports Betting
The talk in another thread about fouling/not fouling late when up 3 in a basketball game got me thinking about a football scenario that happened earlier this year. I'm interested to see what others think of it, since I have a strong opinion one way while is seems that most (at least everyone that I was watching this game with) felt the exact opposite...

You're down 15, with lets say something like 4-5 minutes left in the game (and a couple of timeouts left). You just scored a TD to cut it to 9, and now have to decide whether to kick the XP or go for 2. What do you do (kick or go for 2)? And why?

Comments

  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Go for 2 because you mathematically want to know asap if you need one more score to tie or two.

    This almost never happens though and the most common reason I hear involves psycho-babble about making your team feel they have a shot as opposed to demoralizing them if you go for 2 and fail.
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Goats wrote: »
    Go for 2 because you mathematically want to know asap if you need one more score to tie or two.

    This almost never happens though and the most common reason I hear involves psycho-babble about making your team feel they have a shot as opposed to demoralizing them if you go for 2 and fail.

    This is exactly what I think. You HAVE to know how many possessions you are going to need in order to manage the time properly. Where and when to call timeouts, if you need onside kicks, how much time you can take on a drive etc all depend on this. You have to get it over with because it eliminates all uncertainty.
  • burgerburger Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Goats wrote: »
    Go for 2 because you mathematically want to know asap if you need one more score to tie or two.

    This almost never happens though and the most common reason I hear involves psycho-babble about making your team feel they have a shot as opposed to demoralizing them if you go for 2 and fail.


    100% agree.
  • burgerburger Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    This is exactly what I think. You HAVE to know how many possessions you are going to need in order to manage the time properly with where and when to call timeouts, if you need onside kicks, how much time you can take on a drive etc.

    Also 100% agree.
  • parlaykid33parlaykid33 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I don't get it at all.... I played football my whole life, and still play in a flag football league to date. Granted flag is a totally different game but that's besides the point. You go for 1 and make it a one possession game ... I don't see why ud put urself in any other situation.
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    You go for 1 and make it a one possession game ... I don't see why ud put urself in any other situation.

    If you do this, you are down by 8, so you still have to get that 2 point conversion one way or another. Calling it a one possession game is misleading because it is only truly a one possession game if you make the two point conversion. If you fail, it is actually a 2 possession game. The sooner you find out how many possessions it will take, the sooner you can act accordingly. By putting this off, most of the time you will find yourself in a situation where it is too late to do anything if you don't convert the 2 point conversion. And even if you score as quickly as possible (thinking there is a chance you don't convert it) and do end up tying the game, you might have left the other team too much time.
  • billymacbillymac Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    go for 2.... no brainer.
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    billymac wrote: »
    go for 2.... no brainer.

    You would be suprised how many people agree with what parlaykid said. Most fans, announcers, and even coaches think of it like he does
  • MustangMustang Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Hell Phil Simms and Jim Nantz were questioning the same logic last weekend in the NE-Houston game when Houston scored a TD to make it 38-26 and then went for 2. I agree it is the smart move because then Houston knew if they needed one TD and one FG or two TD sooner than later.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    You would be suprised how many people agree with what parlaykid said. Most fans, announcers, and even coaches think of it like he does

    That's exactly why I posted this question. It seems that announcers and coaches pretty much universally agree with the line of thinking that you kick the XP so that you can keep it as a "one score" game. When it came up earlier this season, I mentioned it as being a pet peeve of mine to a room full of guys, and pretty much everyone in the room thought that I was wrong. I was told that I was thinking about it too much from a math perspective, and that you had to consider a team's "motivation" and that you would gain more momentum if you kept it a one score game. So, I kept asking around and kept finding myself to be in the minority. I hadn't seen this scenario talked about before on a forum, but Goats told me that it did come up at SSB years ago and the sharp guys there agreed that you have to go for 2.

    I want to know where I stand as soon as possible. If I need 2 scores, I'm going to call plays (and maybe onside kick depending on the situation) much differently than if I'm down 1 score. Plus, you also have the option to kick a FG and go for an onside kick if down 9, whereas if you wait for the 2 point conversion, you have no idea if a FG will do you any good. From a math standpoint, it seems very obvious. Then again, many thought I was crazy in the late-90's when I'd always want teams to foul up 3, and at the time it was considered a pretty "rougue" strategy.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TommyL wrote: »
    The talk in another thread about fouling/not fouling late when up 3 in a basketball game got me thinking about a football scenario that happened earlier this year. I'm interested to see what others think of it, since I have a strong opinion one way while is seems that most (at least everyone that I was watching this game with) felt the exact opposite...

    You're down 15, with lets say something like 4-5 minutes left in the game (and a couple of timeouts left). You just scored a TD to cut it to 9, and now have to decide whether to kick the XP or go for 2. What do you do (kick or go for 2)? And why?

    There's not enough information in your post to make an informed decision. What's the spread and what side am I on?
  • pawtpawt Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Go for 2. You need the 2-pointer regardless and your chance at success is the same whether you go for it now or later. It really comes to: would you rather be down 2-points with probably no timeouts and limited time remaining OR down 9 with a few timeouts and 4 or 5 min to go (if the 2-point failed). I'll go with the second choice any day...

    It's amazing how good I've gotten with these scenarios from playing Madden.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Not sure if anyone caught it, but this situation was going to potentially happen in the Baltimore-New England game. And with about 8 minutes left and New England driving, Phil Simms made a comment like "well, if they score they'll obviously kick the extra point to make it a one score game" (might not have been that exactly, but along those lines). I really was hoping that NE would score, so that we could see how Belichick played it (I assume that he's one of the coaches that would have gone for 2, which I'm sure would have made Simms' head explode).
  • jimmymojimmymo Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    the argument for going for 1 is about psychology, but not the psych of the team trailing.....making it a 1 possession game is all about putting pressure on the other team's offense.....going for 2 and missing lets the other team play without fear.....there are a lot of great coaches in the history of sports that place a lot of value in putting pressure on the other team


    just sayin...................
  • billymacbillymac Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    good point jimmy. But, I think Belichick would have gone for 2. I was in a room yesterday and folks were talking about the same thing. Good stuff.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Goats wrote: »
    Go for 2 because you mathematically want to know asap if you need one more score to tie or two.

    This almost never happens though and the most common reason I hear involves psycho-babble about making your team feel they have a shot as opposed to demoralizing them if you go for 2 and fail.

    I agree going for 1 on the first T.D. I disagree when you say it's psycho-babble (to put it in your words) but football is an emotional game and if you miss the 2 after scoring your back to two scores that has to effect a team knowing you just laid it out there and scored and now your in the same position you were before that score. Kick for one and the hope of tying the game and a possible a shot to win remains strong where if you miss your head is down.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TommyL wrote: »
    Not sure if anyone caught it, but this situation was going to potentially happen in the Baltimore-New England game. And with about 8 minutes left and New England driving, Phil Simms made a comment like "well, if they score they'll obviously kick the extra point to make it a one score game" (might not have been that exactly, but along those lines). I really was hoping that NE would score, so that we could see how Belichick played it (I assume that he's one of the coaches that would have gone for 2, which I'm sure would have made Simms' head explode).

    I would have liked to see BB's decision, too bad they couldn't get in the end zone. I think with over ~6min and 3 timeouts I'm kicking the xtra point to cut it to 8. I think the line is somewhere between 5-6 min where I switch to going for 2 first to determine how many more times I'll need to score.
  • Chisox6Chisox6 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I think some of it depends on time left, but for the most part, mathematically, you should go for 2 (so you know what you need for the rest of the game). If you are in a situation where you have to onside kick anyway (say less than 2 minutes left) then I would just kick the PAT as the chances of you getting two more scores are almost zero anyway and maybe the "motivation" of only being down 1 score might keep the team's energy and hope upa bit (all subjective things, but might be a little true). With the Pats yesterday I think there was like 7 minutes left when Simms was talking about it, and in that case you should def go for 2 after the TD as knowing if you need 1 more score vs 2 more has a huge affect on strategy from that point forward.
  • LawboyLawboy Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I think that time is the key question. Is there enough time to get two more possessions if you fail on the 2 point conversion. If you kick, you will get the ball back ONLY one time, then kick. If there is enough time for an additional possession, then you might go for 2. This actually happened in the Atlanta game. They were down four with about a minute and a half. If they kick, they go down 1, and get have the chance to get the ball back one more time for a long fg. But that would have been hard to stomach. I think if they were outside the 2 minute warning and had 2 TOs, or 1:30 with all 3 TOs, they should have kicked.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Chisox6 wrote: »
    I think some of it depends on time left, but for the most part, mathematically, you should go for 2 (so you know what you need for the rest of the game). If you are in a situation where you have to onside kick anyway (say less than 2 minutes left) then I would just kick the PAT as the chances of you getting two more scores are almost zero anyway and maybe the "motivation" of only being down 1 score might keep the team's energy and hope upa bit (all subjective things, but might be a little true). With the Pats yesterday I think there was like 7 minutes left when Simms was talking about it, and in that case you should def go for 2 after the TD as knowing if you need 1 more score vs 2 more has a huge affect on strategy from that point forward.

    I agree completely. I guess there is some point where it really doesn't matter any more, and you have to onsides kick it regardless (but being a math guy, I'd still want to know what I need since it always opens up the option for the long FG/onsides kick/hail mary even with something like 30 seconds left, remote as the chances may be). I'd probably go for 2 anytime from the start of the 4th quarter on, since 1 score vs. 2 scores could change a lot of your decisions going forward.
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