Betting Talk

TommyL's January College Basketball Plays

TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
edited February 2013 in Sports Betting
Record heading into January: 106-84-1 (+13.6 units unweighted, +19.65 units weighted) Average CLV: +.24

Through 191 plays, beaten the close 100 times (52%), same 35 times (18%), and taken a worse number 56 times (29%)

Plays for Wednesday, 1/2

UNC-Wilmington -2 Towson
Drexel +1.5 Georgia State
UMass -4.5 Miami-Ohio
Indiana State +6.5 Northern Iowa
Florida State -4 Auburn 1.5 UNITS
Illinois -2 Purdue 2 UNITS
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Comments

  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    One more for tonight...

    Creighton -1 Illinois State

    I really like this Illinois State squad, but I just think that Creighton is at a different level than everyone else in the MVC.
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TommyL wrote: »
    Record heading into January: 106-84-1 (+13.6 units unweighted, +19.65 units weighted) Average CLV: +.24

    Through 191 plays, beaten the close 100 times (52%), same 35 times (18%), and taken a worse number 56 times (29%)

    Plays for Wednesday, 1/2

    UNC-Wilmington -2 Towson
    Drexel +1.5 Georgia State
    UMass -4.5 Miami-Ohio
    Indiana State +6.5 Northern Iowa
    Florida State -4 Auburn 1.5 UNITS
    Illinois -2 Purdue 2 UNITS
    Tommy, Happy New Year may it be filled with winners. Could you please check your weighted units I think you did not count Ill St. on 12-30 as a 1.5 unit play I have it at +19.10 units that is the only way I can see we are off .55. Thank You again for sharing.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    bluejake wrote: »
    Tommy, Happy New Year may it be filled with winners. Could you please check your weighted units I think you did not count Ill St. on 12-30 as a 1.5 unit play I have it at +19.10 units that is the only way I can see we are off .55. Thank You again for sharing.

    Yes, you are correct. Thanks very much for catching it.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Updated record: 109-88-1 (+12.2 units unweighted, +16.05 units weighted) Average CLV: +.24

    Plays for Thursday, 1/3

    Wisconsin -17.5 Penn State
    Michigan -11 Northwestern 1.5 UNITS
    Texas State +19 Denver
    Gonzaga -15.5 Pepperdine
    Long Beach State +2 Cal Poly SLO
    Hawaii -1.5 Cal State Fullerton
    Nebraska Omaha +20.5 Oakland
    Fairfield +5 Canisus
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Updated record: 115-90-1 (+16 units unweighted, +20.35 units weighted) Average CLV: +.25

    No plays for Friday, 1/4
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Plays for Saturday, 1/5

    530 Old Dominion +3 Delaware
    539 George Mason -2.5 William & Mary
    554 Illinois +4 Ohio State
    561 Rice +16 Harvard
    564 West Virginia -3.5 Oklahoma 1.5 UNITS
    569 NC State -8.5 Boston College 2 UNITS
    599 La Tech -1.5 UT-Arlington
    617 Gonzaga -6 Santa Clara
    623 Pacific +1 UC Davis
    637 Fairfield +2.5 Niagara
    648 Jacksonville State -5.5 Tennessee State
  • LawboyLawboy Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    At least we are not against each other today. GL George Mason, Fairfield and Illinois just missed the cut for me.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I know the metro well and was looking at fairfied myself but decided to lay off

    luck
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Plays for Sunday, 1/6

    Michigan -14 Iowa
    Colorado -2 Arizona State
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Will update record when I get a chance tomorrow.

    Plays for Tuesday, 1/8

    UConn -8.5 DePaul
    Niagara -5.5 Brown 2 UNITS
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    One more for today...

    Creighton -17.5 Drake

    This one has dropped too much. Lots of points to lay, but Drake is playing awful as of late.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TommyL wrote: »
    One more for today...

    Creighton -17.5 Drake

    This one has dropped too much. Lots of points to lay, but Drake is playing awful as of late.

    agree. i've been watching this line as well and trying to gauge when to pull trigger or if to.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Updated Record: 123-98-1 (+15.2 units unweighted, +16.8 units weighted) Average CLV: +.24

    Plays for Wednesday, 1/9

    St John's -3.5 Rutgers
    Virginia Tech -3 Boston College 1.5 UNITS
    William & Mary +4 Towson
    Cleveland State +8 Wright State
    Indiana State -5.5 Bradley
    South Florida -2.5 Villanova
    Hawaii +7 UC-Irvine
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Niagara has cost us a swing of 6.3 units from 1-5 and 1-8.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    bluejake wrote: »
    Niagara has cost us a swing of 6.3 units from 1-5 and 1-8.

    Last night was brutal. Get out to a 19 point lead, then promptly give up a 19-1 run to let Brown right back in it.
  • spareshooterspareshooter Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Was a really bad beat. Still they had a 10 point lead at halftime, Game was capped correctly as Niagara was right on their average PPG, but Brown was 16 over their average PPG. Needless to say, I had Niagara as well
    Spare
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Plays for Thursday, 1/10

    Detroit +1 Youngstown State
    Michigan State -2 Iowa
    UCLA -5 Utah
    Pacific -6 UC Santa Barbara
    Gonzaga -9 St Mary's
    Arizona State +6 Oregon State
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Friday, 1/11

    Niagara -1.5 St. Peter's
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Updated record: 129-105-1 (+13.5 units unweighted, +14.55 units weighted) Average CLV: +.25
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    zags fall asleep in 2H or what? I just saw the box score. Keep up the great work tommny!
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    newcombe wrote: »
    zags fall asleep in 2H or what? I just saw the box score. Keep up the great work tommny!

    It's been the M.O. of a lot of my games lately. Get out to a big lead, then let the other team right back in it. UCLA also fit into the mold last night
  • nipsyhustlenipsyhustle Member
    edited January 2013
    First, thanks for the hard work Tommy. Second, do you think in the games like the Zags last night it is profitable long term to look at a middle and take St Mary for the second half?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    First, thanks for the hard work Tommy. Second, do you think in the games like the Zags last night it is profitable long term to look at a middle and take St Mary for the second half?

    No, it's just giving away edge on those games that are looking good (unless of course there is some reason that I specifically liked St Mary's in the 2nd half).
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Over 100 lined games tomorrow. What a day.

    Plays for Saturday, 1/12

    517.) Georgetown/St John's over 120.5
    527.) Northeastern +1 Towson
    532.) NC State +3.5 Duke
    545.) Charlotte -1.5 Rhode Island 2 UNITS (my favorite play of the season to date)
    556.) LaSalle -7 Richmond
    565.) Illinois +5.5 Wisconsin
    591.) Drexel +3 James Madison
    602.) Xavier -4.5 George Washington 2 UNITS
    609.) UCF +1.5 East Carolina
    621.) USC +4 Utah
    633.) San Francisco +14 St Mary's 1.5 UNITS
    653.) Indiana State -2.5 Southern Illinois
    680.) Pacific -7.5 Cal Poly SLO
    709.) Samford -5 The Citadel
    719.) Murray State -10 Austin Peay

    Good luck to everyone tomorrow.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Will update record tomorrow...

    Plays for Sunday, 1/13

    UMass -3.5 Fordham
    Purdue -11 Penn State
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Updated Record: 138-112-1 (+14.8 units unweighted, +18.35 units weighted) Average CLV: +.25

    Adding one more for today...

    Niagara +6.5 Fairfield
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    stellar day Tommy. nice work. umass had you worried for a second there :)... CLV prevails.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    Updated Record: 141-112-1 (+17.8 units unweighted, +21.35 units weighted) Average CLV: +.25

    One Play for Monday, 1/14

    Norfolk State -3 Howard
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    One for Tuesday, 1/15

    Vanderbilt +9.5 Mississippi
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    One more for tonight...

    Creighton -10.5 Northern Iowa

    Most of the board is still sitting at 11, but Pinny finally dropped it to 10.5 (as did a local of mine), so there are some 10.5's to be had. Can't really see it falling any lower than this.
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