Betting Talk

Hedging Advice

seckardanseckardan Senior Member
edited January 2013 in Sports Betting
I'd appreciate some advice from you guys. If Stanford covers, I have decent sized parlay left with the only remaining game being N Ill +14.5. Would you hedge it with a bet for half the payoff on Fl St?

Comments

  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2013
    http://www.bettingtalk.com/threads/171617-Bet-help!?p=772469&viewfull=1#post772469
  • seckardanseckardan Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Goats, so you are saying it's not a good idea? Help me understand why you wouldn't want to gaurantee half your open payoff?
  • jesfla72jesfla72 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    i could of hedge bet on the skins the other day. I didn't and we all saw dallas lost. If the money is big go
    for half
  • LawboyLawboy Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    This comes up often. Only bet the other side if you think it has +EV on its own. Would you take even money on a blackjack v A? Answer is no, unless you have count that makes that decision a +EV. So if you think FSU is + EV on its own, then go get it.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    seckardan wrote: »
    Goats, so you are saying it's not a good idea? Help me understand why you wouldn't want to gaurantee half your open payoff?

    Why would you have played this parlay to begin with? If you'd just left Northern Illinois off of it, you'd have the $ in your account already, and wouldn't be considering giving the book juice on both teams in the same game.

    And the reason that it isn't a good idea is that you're simply giving away value and making a -EV play (especially since you already must think that N Ill is +EV since you played them).
  • seckardanseckardan Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Sorry, not sure I understand the Ev money comments. I had a $15 6 team parlay that will pay out 700. Wouldn't I want to gaurantee some of it??
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2013
    seckardan wrote: »
    Sorry, not sure I understand the Ev money comments. I had a $15 6 team parlay that will pay out 700. Wouldn't I want to gaurantee some of it??

    If you're looking to maximize your long term profit, then no, hedging is the wrong thing to do. But if it makes you feel better, then go ahead.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    seckardan wrote: »
    Wouldn't I want to gaurantee some of it??

    That's a question only you can answer.

    Risk everything or take some insurance??......... It all depends on your own personal preferences.

    Sharper sports bettors on here don't advocate the use of parlays, nor betting on -EV plays.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Obi One wrote: »
    That's a question only you can answer.

    Risk everything or take some insurance??......... It all depends on your own personal preferences.

    Sharper sports bettors on here don't advocate the use of parlays, nor betting on -EV plays.

    Just like all these folks who want to middle because they beat the line move.

    you have huge value now, all you do by placing a wager on the other side is give money back to the books in the long run and take it out of your pocket no matter if your parlay hits or not.
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited January 2013
    the way look at it. If someone offered to take your bet of $15 to make $700 on , N. Illinois +14.5 , would you do it or not ? Ofcourse you would.

    that is the way to view it. Just my opinion. I never hedge in that situation.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2013
    seckardan wrote: »
    Goats, so you are saying it's not a good idea? Help me understand why you wouldn't want to gaurantee half your open payoff?

    Sorry, just got back to this thread now. I have nothing to add beyond what's in that thread I linked for you and has been posted here. This topic has come up so many times, there's not much more to say.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    seckardan wrote: »
    I'd appreciate some advice from you guys. If Stanford covers, I have decent sized parlay left with the only remaining game being N Ill +14.5. Would you hedge it with a bet for half the payoff on Fl St?

    Hope you hedged.

    Sorry, I couldnt resist...
  • seckardanseckardan Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I actually hedged about 200 on FSU -14. It was actually pretty close to coming in at exactly 14 which would have been the best case scenario as my initial parley had NILL +14.5. Shitty game overall and poor effort by the Huskies. But exciting to watch in my situation.

    Thanks all for the help. Appreciate it and good luck!
  • LetItRideLetItRide Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    I used to attempt middles and hedges all the time when i first started sports wagering. And it actually even crossed my mind yesterday because I had Wisconsin (+7) and Stanford got down to (-3'). But even though I would have won both sides yesterday, in the long run all you are doing is giving money back to the books. I don't have opportunities to hedge so much now because I never play parlays, teasers, or exotics any more. Glad you at least got something out of it.
  • seckardanseckardan Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Thanks man. Me either. I think it was only the second one all year. $15 fun bet on New Years for the hell of it. Turned out profitible. And most of all I do now see the reasons behind not hedging, which is worth more than that $15 wager!
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