Romney's going to win going away...easy money. Even my wife is voting tomorrow and she NEVER votes. Trust me...there are millions that absolutely can't wait to vote. Unlike 2008.
Ok ive been reading this for 2 minutes only but so far ive seen 2 things. Probability of obama re-election 98.1%? And chances of Romney winning pop vote 6 percent? You say it has good info so im listening, but cant find anything so far.
Ok ive been reading this for 2 minutes only but so far ive seen 2 things. Probability of obama re-election 98.1%? And chances of Romney winning pop vote 6 percent? You say it has good info so im listening, but cant find anything so far.
I was basing my statement off of things like their methodology, past performance, info in the posts, etc. If you're simply looking for a site that gives Romney a better chance of winning, I guess this is a better option...
I was basing my statement off of things like their methodology, past performance, info in the posts, etc. If you're simply looking for a site that gives Romney a better chance of winning, I guess this is a better option...
lol at the foxnews comment. If you have spent anytime following this thread I would hope you would see me as one of the few people who can actually use their head and not their hearts when talking about this stupid election.
Hmmm all that stuff is way to complicated for me. But, does this guy really believe the 98% and 6% numbers?
lol at the foxnews comment. If you have spent anytime following this thread I would hope you would see me as one of the few people who can actually use their head and not their hearts when talking about this stupid election.
Sorry, it was probably uncalled for. I'm just so used to seeing people in this thread posting with their heart instead of actually looking at the numbers.
Sorry, it was probably uncalled for. I'm just so used to seeing people in this thread posting with their heart instead of actually looking at the numbers.
He's got 23 states pretty safely in hand. Even giving him North Carolina (which he should win) and Florida (which I think he'll win, but it'll be close) only gets him to 25. He's still behind in the polls in every other state, so even if he did pick up another state like Colorado, he'd still be one short and in need of Virginia/Iowa/New Hanpshire/Ohio. I think this is a nice play at -110. I also played Iowa for Obama at -280, and took a long look at Colorado for Obama at -135 but didn't pull the trigger.
My prediction is that Obama wins it 303-235 (Florida and NC going Romney, rest of the swing states going Obama). If it's not that, it'll likely be 294-244 (with Romney taking Colorado). I just wanted to put it on the record and freeroll myself in case I decide to get into political forecasting and want to point back to my success in 2012.
He's got 23 states pretty safely in hand. Even giving him North Carolina (which he should win) and Florida (which I think he'll win, but it'll be close) only gets him to 25. He's still behind in the polls in every other state, so even if he did pick up another state like Colorado, he'd still be one short and in need of Virginia/Iowa/New Hanpshire/Ohio. I think this is a nice play at -110. I also played Iowa for Obama at -280, and took a long look at Colorado for Obama at -135 but didn't pull the trigger.
My prediction is that Obama wins it 303-235 (Florida and NC going Romney, rest of the swing states going Obama). If it's not that, it'll likely be 294-244 (with Romney taking Colorado). I just wanted to put it on the record and freeroll myself in case I decide to get into political forecasting and want to point back to my success in 2012.
Bad news is if your right, its the same exact result Silver has, so going to be hard to catch him in the forecasting world
I dont know how to do the math, but seems pretty easy to figure out if you applied percentages to each state and knowing he had to win 4. Ill take a swing at the percentages:
NC 82%
FL 73%
CO 43%
VI 44%
Iowa 28%
NH 29%
OH 25%
PA 9%
MI 2%
MN 2%
Bad news is if your right, its the same exact result Silver has, so going to be hard to catch him in the forecasting world
I dont know how to do the math, but seems pretty easy to figure out if you applied percentages to each state and knowing he had to win 4. Ill take a swing at the percentages:
NC 82%
FL 73%
CO 43%
VI 44%
Iowa 28%
NH 29%
OH 25%
PA 9%
MI 2%
MN 2%
Bad news is if your right, its the same exact result Silver has, so going to be hard to catch him in the forecasting world
I dont know how to do the math, but seems pretty easy to figure out if you applied percentages to each state and knowing he had to win 4. Ill take a swing at the percentages:
NC 82%
FL 73%
CO 43%
VI 44%
Iowa 28%
NH 29%
OH 25%
PA 9%
MI 2%
MN 2%
Honestly, I think that the results are tied together too closely to look at them as individual events and multiply together the percentages. I mean, if Romney wins Michigan or Minnesota, then this will have been a tidal wave of FAIL on all of the pundits parts, and he will have completely destroyed Obama. It doesn't answer the question as to how exactly to figure out the correct price for this prop, but I just don't see it as being "pretty easy to figure out" due to the coorelated nature of this stuff. And maybe I'm taking it to an extreme and thinking about these states as being more coorelated than they are. That's stuff that I'll have to figure out before I start up my own website in 2016 (and Silver will have only hit 99/100 states correctly over the two elections, while I'd be coming in with a perfect record).
Honestly, I think that the results are tied together too closely to look at them as individual events and multiply together the percentages. I mean, if Romney wins Michigan or Minnesota, then this will have been a tidal wave of FAIL on all of the pundits parts, and he will have completely destroyed Obama. It doesn't answer the question as to how exactly to figure out the correct price for this prop, but I just don't see it as being "pretty easy to figure out" due to the coorelated nature of this stuff. And maybe I'm taking it to an extreme and thinking about these states as being more coorelated than they are. That's stuff that I'll have to figure out before I start up my own website in 2016 (and Silver will have only hit 99/100 states correctly over the two elections, while I'd be coming in with a perfect record).
To an extent I agree that your right. But, I think its to hard to just say that if he wins Ohio or whatever hes going to win them all. I sure wouldnt be surprised to see him win 4 of the above states.
To an extent I agree that your right. But, I think its to hard to just say that if he wins Ohio or whatever hes going to win them all. I sure wouldnt be surprised to see him win 4 of the above states.
I would be surprised to see him win 4 of them, but not shocked as it's certainly possible. However, I think the odds of it happening are less than 52.4%.
What do we make of this? It is obviously an unbiased article right? I mean its from the Denver post i assume its just straight fact? 1.7 million of 2.7 million votes cast and early voting is supposed to favor Obama right?
What do we make of this? It is obviously an unbiased article right? I mean its from the Denver post i assume its just straight fact? 1.7 million of 2.7 million votes cast and early voting is supposed to favor Obama right?
Yeh I didnt really get what I was looking for in this article either. Romney is supposed to have solid lead with independents and supposed to win on election day (Mccain even won on election day in CO in 2008 while losing by 9 overall). I just dont get it, I guess all those "unaffiliated" somehow break for Obama in a pretty decisive way, assuming Romney has an edge with people voting on election day. CRIS dealing Romney +120 in Colo I think that has some value
Yeh I didnt really get what I was looking for in this article either. Romney is supposed to have solid lead with independents and supposed to win on election day (Mccain even won on election day in CO in 2008 while losing by 9 overall). I just dont get it, I guess all those "unaffiliated" somehow break for Obama in a pretty decisive way, assuming Romney has an edge with people voting on election day. CRIS dealing Romney +120 in Colo I think that has some value
Based on the numbers I have read democrats are much more likely to vote during early voting windows.
I could swear that one of the books did the exact same thing 4 years ago. Anyone remember that?
Yes I do remember it, but not which book it was. Might have been more than one. I remember a quote along the lines that McCain had less than a 10% chance of winning based on the polls.
This should be a classic post so here goes.....I just put a token wager on the dog @ +310 @ Grande, reason - the Wifey poll. Hospital where my wife works 4 yrs ago survey was that only she and one other co worker were not voting for the O man, 4 years later there are only 1-2 voting for the O man. This is here in Nevada where it is mostly Dems. most Latino's here feel they have been let down. She believes there is a huge silent majority that are going to make themselves heard in this election...so there you go, wife has spoken...doggie it is!!
What do we make of this? It is obviously an unbiased article right? I mean its from the Denver post i assume its just straight fact? 1.7 million of 2.7 million votes cast and early voting is supposed to favor Obama right?
Obama has not fared well in early voting, which was the source of much of his 2008 margin. Battlegroundwatch breaks down a lot of the numbers and the internals of the polls. It a partisan site that's for Romney, but at least they're transparent about it unlike Silver:
Here's a clip from an interview with Axelrod asking about Obama's poor early vote turnout in Ohio relative to 2008. I know many will dismiss the numbers because it's Fox News, but Axelrod does not exactly dispute the numbers:
Mccain won Colorado on election day last year while losing the state by 9.
So repubs are winning early voting.
Indys side with Romney by 7 nationally.
Romney is going to win more votes on election day
I just dont understand how he can be a dog here, but I guess im missing something since this is widely available info and Cris is till taking 1k at +120
Comments
-404
http://election.princeton.edu/
Ok ive been reading this for 2 minutes only but so far ive seen 2 things. Probability of obama re-election 98.1%? And chances of Romney winning pop vote 6 percent? You say it has good info so im listening, but cant find anything so far.
I was basing my statement off of things like their methodology, past performance, info in the posts, etc. If you're simply looking for a site that gives Romney a better chance of winning, I guess this is a better option...
http://www.foxnews.com/
Here is the type of stuff that I find to be quite useful...
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/04/comparisons-among-aggregators-and-modelers/#more-8408
I'd love to have a look behind the curtain on this market at pinnacle.
lol at the foxnews comment. If you have spent anytime following this thread I would hope you would see me as one of the few people who can actually use their head and not their hearts when talking about this stupid election.
Hmmm all that stuff is way to complicated for me. But, does this guy really believe the 98% and 6% numbers?
Sorry, it was probably uncalled for. I'm just so used to seeing people in this thread posting with their heart instead of actually looking at the numbers.
Yes politics is very dumb
Romney States won under 26.5 (-110)
He's got 23 states pretty safely in hand. Even giving him North Carolina (which he should win) and Florida (which I think he'll win, but it'll be close) only gets him to 25. He's still behind in the polls in every other state, so even if he did pick up another state like Colorado, he'd still be one short and in need of Virginia/Iowa/New Hanpshire/Ohio. I think this is a nice play at -110. I also played Iowa for Obama at -280, and took a long look at Colorado for Obama at -135 but didn't pull the trigger.
My prediction is that Obama wins it 303-235 (Florida and NC going Romney, rest of the swing states going Obama). If it's not that, it'll likely be 294-244 (with Romney taking Colorado). I just wanted to put it on the record and freeroll myself in case I decide to get into political forecasting and want to point back to my success in 2012.
Bad news is if your right, its the same exact result Silver has, so going to be hard to catch him in the forecasting world
I dont know how to do the math, but seems pretty easy to figure out if you applied percentages to each state and knowing he had to win 4. Ill take a swing at the percentages:
NC 82%
FL 73%
CO 43%
VI 44%
Iowa 28%
NH 29%
OH 25%
PA 9%
MI 2%
MN 2%
Just noticed you didnt include WI or NV.
WI 15%
NV 11%
Honestly, I think that the results are tied together too closely to look at them as individual events and multiply together the percentages. I mean, if Romney wins Michigan or Minnesota, then this will have been a tidal wave of FAIL on all of the pundits parts, and he will have completely destroyed Obama. It doesn't answer the question as to how exactly to figure out the correct price for this prop, but I just don't see it as being "pretty easy to figure out" due to the coorelated nature of this stuff. And maybe I'm taking it to an extreme and thinking about these states as being more coorelated than they are. That's stuff that I'll have to figure out before I start up my own website in 2016 (and Silver will have only hit 99/100 states correctly over the two elections, while I'd be coming in with a perfect record).
To an extent I agree that your right. But, I think its to hard to just say that if he wins Ohio or whatever hes going to win them all. I sure wouldnt be surprised to see him win 4 of the above states.
I would be surprised to see him win 4 of them, but not shocked as it's certainly possible. However, I think the odds of it happening are less than 52.4%.
What do we make of this? It is obviously an unbiased article right? I mean its from the Denver post i assume its just straight fact? 1.7 million of 2.7 million votes cast and early voting is supposed to favor Obama right?
http://blog.paddypower.com/2012/11/04/paddy-power-pays-out-400000-on-obama-victory-in-u-s-presidential-election/
Ha wow
I'll get the 2016 election thread started
Best article that I've found about it...
http://kdvr.com/2012/11/05/gop-early-voting-lead-down-to-2-percent-in-colorado/
Yeh I didnt really get what I was looking for in this article either. Romney is supposed to have solid lead with independents and supposed to win on election day (Mccain even won on election day in CO in 2008 while losing by 9 overall). I just dont get it, I guess all those "unaffiliated" somehow break for Obama in a pretty decisive way, assuming Romney has an edge with people voting on election day. CRIS dealing Romney +120 in Colo I think that has some value
Based on the numbers I have read democrats are much more likely to vote during early voting windows.
Yes I do remember it, but not which book it was. Might have been more than one. I remember a quote along the lines that McCain had less than a 10% chance of winning based on the polls.
Obama has not fared well in early voting, which was the source of much of his 2008 margin. Battlegroundwatch breaks down a lot of the numbers and the internals of the polls. It a partisan site that's for Romney, but at least they're transparent about it unlike Silver:
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/05/republicans-erase-obama-early-vote-advantage/
Here's a clip from an interview with Axelrod asking about Obama's poor early vote turnout in Ohio relative to 2008. I know many will dismiss the numbers because it's Fox News, but Axelrod does not exactly dispute the numbers:
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/04/david-axelrod-has-no-response-to-ohio-early-vote-numbers/
Exactly. Here is what I gather....
Ok. Repubs are up 34000 votes in early voting.
400k are unaffiliated. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204755404578099141834504374.html
WSJ says Romney up 47-40 with indys nationwide.
Mccain won Colorado on election day last year while losing the state by 9.
So repubs are winning early voting.
Indys side with Romney by 7 nationally.
Romney is going to win more votes on election day
I just dont understand how he can be a dog here, but I guess im missing something since this is widely available info and Cris is till taking 1k at +120