BB surprised no comment on the big game, does that mean you think the game was lined correctly and you're neutral. You would have made it same line? You previously pointed out earlier about the HFA the Gamecocks had at home under the lights, wouldn't you give a similar one to the Tigers? TIA
BB surprised no comment on the big game, does that mean you think the game was lined correctly and you're neutral. You would have made it same line? You previously pointed out earlier about the HFA the Gamecocks had at home under the lights, wouldn't you give a similar one to the Tigers? TIA
No, I would not have made it the same line my man. It's a tad too high, but it has to go up a lil' bit more for me to get involved. Lean to LSU at this number, but I won't pop them until it hits the number I want. Oh, and yes, I have given LSU a sizeable home advantage in this one ala South Carolina v. Georgia earlier in the year. GL my friend!
??? I thought the line had to go up for you to get involved???
Contrarian, I know your intentions are good and you are just trying to "police" me, lol, but before you come into my thread and take a shot at me, please read the preface to the wager above. The only reason I included it was to avoid this question.
To reiterate -> Two ways for the play to increase in value:
(1) My line remains the same and the offered line moves enough to reach my value buying point (upwards in this instance since it's a dog)
(2) Offered line remains the same, but my line moves enough to reach my value buying point (downward in this instance since we are talking about a big dog)
I promise I am not trying to police you as you're one of the few on here that I actually think may win, it's just that yesterday the line was ten and now you're striking at 9'. I can't exactly figure out your explanation at the moment but maybe the line went from ten to nine after I posted it yesterday.
Regardless, good luck - I love the play but gotta get the ten IMO.
Gotcha Contra, I really want you to understand what I'm talking about here so let me give an example:
Lets say we are looking at a game b/t the Hippos and the Anteaters. Now let's say that I have a model produces 55% winners when my line differs from the offered line by 5 or more points.
Sunday My virgin line opens at: Hippos (+6.0) Anteaters Offshore opens at: Hippos (+10.0) Anteaters
***Current analysis: I need 5 points of value. I'm only getting 4 at the moment so it's a no go.
Monday
I catch word of an important injury to the Anteaters squad, but it's made public immediately My line adjusts to: Hippos (+4.5) Anteaters Offshore Line: Hippos (+8.5) Anteaters
***Current analysis: Still no value (I didn't get the info quick enough before it went public remember, if I had then I would have hit it)
Tuesday
This time I find out info that hasn't (and may not until tip) gone public that one of the Hippos injured stars, who was previously listed as out, is going to play in this one
I adjust my line to: Hippos (+2.5) Anteaters Offshore line remains: Hippos (+8.5) Anteaters
***Current analysis: I now have 6 points of value on Tuesday at the number Hippos +8.5 and it's a go! This is compared to the only 4 points of value that I had on Sunday when the line was Hippos +10.
*****Further Explanation: You see, probabilities are ever changing as new information comes in. On the face it appears that I have lost value and forcing a play that is not a qualifier. However, beneath the surface the odds of the Hippos winning have moved further in their favor than the current market price has adjusted for. Therefore, even though the line has moved downwards, Value has increased!
********I see now that it was just a genuine misunderstanding and I hope this flushes out the concept for you. Just remember this principle: THE LINE OF PROBABILITY IS ALWAYS MOVING BECAUSE VARIABLES THAT DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF A FOOTBALL GAME ARE IN CONSTANT FLUX.
What did you learn that made you adjust your line? (LSU game)
Hahaha! That is the million dollar question, now isn't it? Hey Tribe, I like you man, I really do, but not THAT MUCH ;-)
***On a side note, hate that you stopped NCAAF buds. You obviously got da skills playa!! Don't let this cruel mother get you down. I mean shoot, my record in the NFL right now is laughable!! Sure I've gone to bed on Sunday night crying a few times, but I don't think that makes me too much of a pansy...Well, maybe a little.... :-)
Great example Bull, I was intrigued by your philosophy. Thanks for your thorough explanation... Oh, and check your mail when you have a moment.
Kind regards.
Great example Bull, I was intrigued by your philosophy. Thanks for your thorough explanation... Oh, and check your mail when you have a moment.
Kind regards.
Comments
1.10 for 1.00 / Utah Utes -11.5 -110 over Washington Huskies
No, I would not have made it the same line my man. It's a tad too high, but it has to go up a lil' bit more for me to get involved. Lean to LSU at this number, but I won't pop them until it hits the number I want. Oh, and yes, I have given LSU a sizeable home advantage in this one ala South Carolina v. Georgia earlier in the year. GL my friend!
1.10 for 1.00 / LSU Tigers +9.5 -110 over Alabama Crimson Tide
??? I thought the line had to go up for you to get involved???
Contrarian, I know your intentions are good and you are just trying to "police" me, lol, but before you come into my thread and take a shot at me, please read the preface to the wager above. The only reason I included it was to avoid this question.
To reiterate -> Two ways for the play to increase in value:
(1) My line remains the same and the offered line moves enough to reach my value buying point (upwards in this instance since it's a dog)
(2) Offered line remains the same, but my line moves enough to reach my value buying point (downward in this instance since we are talking about a big dog)
Regardless, good luck - I love the play but gotta get the ten IMO.
Lets say we are looking at a game b/t the Hippos and the Anteaters. Now let's say that I have a model produces 55% winners when my line differs from the offered line by 5 or more points.
Sunday
My virgin line opens at: Hippos (+6.0) Anteaters
Offshore opens at: Hippos (+10.0) Anteaters
***Current analysis: I need 5 points of value. I'm only getting 4 at the moment so it's a no go.
Monday
I catch word of an important injury to the Anteaters squad, but it's made public immediately
My line adjusts to: Hippos (+4.5) Anteaters
Offshore Line: Hippos (+8.5) Anteaters
***Current analysis: Still no value (I didn't get the info quick enough before it went public remember, if I had then I would have hit it)
Tuesday
This time I find out info that hasn't (and may not until tip) gone public that one of the Hippos injured stars, who was previously listed as out, is going to play in this one
I adjust my line to: Hippos (+2.5) Anteaters
Offshore line remains: Hippos (+8.5) Anteaters
***Current analysis: I now have 6 points of value on Tuesday at the number Hippos +8.5 and it's a go! This is compared to the only 4 points of value that I had on Sunday when the line was Hippos +10.
*****Further Explanation: You see, probabilities are ever changing as new information comes in. On the face it appears that I have lost value and forcing a play that is not a qualifier. However, beneath the surface the odds of the Hippos winning have moved further in their favor than the current market price has adjusted for. Therefore, even though the line has moved downwards, Value has increased!
********I see now that it was just a genuine misunderstanding and I hope this flushes out the concept for you. Just remember this principle: THE LINE OF PROBABILITY IS ALWAYS MOVING BECAUSE VARIABLES THAT DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF A FOOTBALL GAME ARE IN CONSTANT FLUX.
BOL this week my friend!,
Bull
Hahaha! That is the million dollar question, now isn't it? Hey Tribe, I like you man, I really do, but not THAT MUCH ;-)
***On a side note, hate that you stopped NCAAF buds. You obviously got da skills playa!! Don't let this cruel mother get you down. I mean shoot, my record in the NFL right now is laughable!! Sure I've gone to bed on Sunday night crying a few times, but I don't think that makes me too much of a pansy...Well, maybe a little.... :-)
Kind regards.
No prob buds!
1.10 for 1.00 / Tennessee Volunteers -3.5 -110 over Missouri Tigers
1.10 for 1.00 / Wisconsin Badgers -5.5 -110 over Indiana Hoosiers
1.10 for 1.00 / Miami Hurricanes -2.5 -110 over Virginia Cavaliers
1.10 for 1.00 / Oklahoma Sooners -20.0 -110 over Baylor Bears
1.10 for 1.00 / Kansas Jayhawks +25.5 -110 over Texas Tech Red Raiders
1.10 for 1.00 / Iowa Hawkeyes -3.5 -110 over Purdue Boilermakers
1.10 for 1.00 / Michigan Wolverines -12.0 -110 over Northwestern Wildcats
1.10 for 1.00 / South Carolina Gamecocks -13.5 -110over Arkansas Razorbacks
1.10 for 1.00 / Georgia Bulldogs -15.0 -110 over Auburn Tigers
1.10 for 1.00 / Clemson Tigers -31.0 -110 over Maryland Terrapins
1.10 for 1.00 / North Carolina Tar Heels -9.0 -110 over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
1.10 for 1.00 / N.C. State Wolfpack -9.0 -110 over Wake Forest Demon Deacons
1.10 for 1.00 / California Bears +27.0 -110 over Oregon Ducks
1.10 for 1.00 / Colorado Buffaloes +30.5 -110 over Arizona Wildcats
1.10 for 1.00 / Missouri Tigers -5.5 -110 over Syracuse Orange
1.10 for 1.00 / Michigan State Spartans -6.5 -110 over Northwestern Wildcats
1.10 for 1.00 / West Virginia Mountaineers +10.5 -110 over Oklahoma Sooners
1.10 for 1.00 / Ohio State Buckeyes +2.5 -110 over Wisconsin Badgers
1.10 for 1.00 / Penn State Nittany Lions -16.5 -110 over Indiana Hoosiers
1.10 for 1.00 / Virginia Tech Hokies -9.0 -110 over Boston College Golden Eagles
1.10 for 1.00 / Miami (FL) Hurricanes -6.5 -110 over South Florida Bulls
1.10 for 1.00 / LSU Bayou Bengals -17.5 -110 over Ole Miss Rebels
1.10 for 1.00 / Cincinnati Bearcats -13.0 -110 over South Florida Bulls
1.10 for 1.00 / Georgia Bulldogs -13.0 -110 over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
1.10 for 1.00 / North Carolina Tar Heels -23.5 -110 over Maryland Terrapins
1.10 for 1.00 / N.C. State Wolfpack -13.5 -110 over Boston College Eagles
1.10 for 1.00 / Pittsburgh Panthers -2.0 -110 over Rutgers Scarlet Knights
1.10 for 1.00 / Purdue Boilermakers -5.5 -110 over Indiana Hoosiers
1.10 for 1.00 / Texas Tech Red Raiders +2.0 -110 over Baylor Bears
1.10 for 1.00 / Alabama Crimson Tide -33.0 -110 over Auburn Tigers