I appreciate that, weeds. You're one of the few. I don't get it. People would rather lose money than have their thoughts challenged, corrected, criticized, etc. if that criticism is anything less than polite.
I've said it before - weeds is my kind of guy.
Lol at tommyL not wanting people to be an asshole at the expense of losing. What I'd give to be in a room with some of the truly great free AP's ripping my shit to shreds and giving me constructive criticism and sharing their stuff. One can always dream.
Meanwhile sweet little tommy l wants tea and crumpet parties with everybody kissy kissy strong poker mod
Lol at tommyL not wanting people to be an asshole at the expense of losing. What I'd give to be in a room with some of the truly great free AP's ripping my shit to shreds and giving me constructive criticism and sharing their stuff. One can always dream.
Meanwhile sweet little tommy l wants tea and crumpet parties with everybody kissy kissy strong poker mod
What constructive criticism did you give him in post #2 in this thread?
And I'm sorry that you think that showing respect to others (even if you disagree with them) makes it a "tea and crumpet" party.
In Macolm Gladwell's Blink, he talks about how people have the ability to make snap decisions. Something he calls thin-slicing, the ability for a person to somehow process all the information and render an often accurate analysis with no time and no additional research.
One of the case studies he uses is tennis coach Vic Braden. Thought it was interesting to share this with you guys:
Vic Braden, a world renowned tennis coach, began to notice he had an incredible ability. He was able to successfully predict when a tennis player was about to double fault, almost 100 percent of the time. He was successfully predicting double faults on players he had never watched play before. This was an amazing feat for the fact that a professional tennis player might hit 100 serves in a match and only double fault no more than five times. When Braden was asked how he knew the player about to double fault he could not point out any specific reason action, he said he just knew. Braden said he would stay up for hours lying in his bed contemplating what he had seen that let know the player was about to double fault. Vic Braden was to his successful prediction in a “blink” of the eye. This rapid cognition was taking place in Braden’s collective unconscious.
Gladwell uses this story of Vic Braden to show how the brain is able to come to quick conclusion without us even consciously knowing it. Another example given by the author is of a recent experiment where participants were asked to make four word sentences from scrambled sets of words, where each set of words contained a similar themed word (such as rudeness, politeness, youthfulness). The participants would unknowingly adopt these behaviors that had been suggested to them through the sets of words.
I didn't want to quote an exact passage out of the book but the Braden example along with the rest of the book sheds a different light on the ability to watch and benefit capping .
If Braden, is able to watch a tennis serve and accurately predict a double fault before the ball is even hit, there has to be people out there who are able to do this in football.
Now being able to recognize that talent and applying it to betting in a profitable manner, that's a whole different ball game.
Sure, such a rare bird exists, but they certainly aren't posting their plays for free on a fucking public message board lmao at the concept. Look in the mirror for the perfect example of how long that's allowed to go down.
Correct, but everyone has to start somehwere. Edward, Stevie etc all started as posters on free message boards. Im not saying in anyway shape or form that the OP brings any value but I think you and Tribe both speak in to many absolutes. 97% of the time your going to be right obv but I would suggest opening your mind up a little bit.
I didn't say he could if u read my post again. Tribe said earlier in the thread there are "special people where there eyes help". I can only speak for myself with baseball but I will be watching game tape in the afternoon next year because I feel like I didn't "watch" enough last year. Maybe baseball is different (it's the only thing I cap) but I don't think u can say there is nobody out there where there eyes can't help in the nfl nba or nhl.
Watching the NHL on TV is useless why do you think they can't get a TV audience it's to fast a game. In football there showing you the ball and QB there's really not much to be learned from that. The NBA can be of some help but once you learn the teams tendencies you don't need to watch. (NBA like no other sport is all about match-ups) You have teams in the NBA where just about every play is a pick and roll and ask yourself the team there playing do they have the talent and players to defend and take away for the most part the pick and roll. Your not a coach where he has his employees taking certain shots to be reviewed in the tape room that helps his team work on weakness's. You don't access to film like that you have access to what CBS and NBC want to show you. Line play in football is key to success instead of watching TV spend the time learning the names and weights and heights of teams O lines and D lines Good Luck so lets go back to it's about the numbers.
Also Yes you can fade people and show a profit, Difficult laying -110 but a little easier at reduced juice shops but you can show a profit.
I won't name the service but I tried an experiment last year in the NBA (This is a True Story) I email a service that from over the years hearing about people talking how he caps games and I read articles from him many times. Here was my deal I told him I would give him $100 per month and every time he was plus 2 Units at the end of the month I would send him another $100 and if he showed a profit at the end of the season I would pay his fee in full. My full intention was to fade his plays blindly. The season cost me $100 and my profit was decent nothing to brag about but enough to build my B/R so again you can show a profit by fading the right people and there's plenty around.
I'll be extremely curious to see if you think that it makes a big difference. My guess is that it won't, but if you tell me (and you're one of about 3 people on here that I'd listen to) that it does, I'll listen.
Even if that person exists that can gain an edge by watching, it's VERY rare and you've got to be uber sharp in the first place to know what to look for and avoid the lies that your mind will tell you. 99% of posters aren't anywhere close to this category, myself for damn sure included.
It will def help. In baseball it may be different but for pitchers esp, its pretty easy to know what to look for. I remember vividly watching this game in 2011. http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?id=310408102
Bartolo Colon in relief. 4.3 innings 5k's 1BB
Now pretty much every single person in the world wrote this off as a complete outlier. The guy had not done anything in forever. But I watched. I saw a guy throwing his 2 seamer consistently 94 on the outer third to rightys and against leftys he would start it at their hip and it would come back and be a strike on the inside corner. I told my friend he looks like Greg Maddux with his control. It was really unhittable. Up until June 11th when he got hurt I bet quite a few Colon and unders. In that time he threw 70 innings with 62 K's and 16 BB. Not bad for a guy literally off the scrap heap who was undervalued in every start (hard to do when u pitch for the yankees).
In Macolm Gladwell's Blink, he talks about how people have the ability to make snap decisions. Something he calls thin-slicing, the ability for a person to somehow process all the information and render an often accurate analysis with no time and no additional research.
One of the case studies he uses is tennis coach Vic Braden. Thought it was interesting to share this with you guys:
Vic Braden, a world renowned tennis coach, began to notice he had an incredible ability. He was able to successfully predict when a tennis player was about to double fault, almost 100 percent of the time. He was successfully predicting double faults on players he had never watched play before. This was an amazing feat for the fact that a professional tennis player might hit 100 serves in a match and only double fault no more than five times. When Braden was asked how he knew the player about to double fault he could not point out any specific reason action, he said he just knew. Braden said he would stay up for hours lying in his bed contemplating what he had seen that let know the player was about to double fault. Vic Braden was to his successful prediction in a “blink” of the eye. This rapid cognition was taking place in Braden’s collective unconscious.
Gladwell uses this story of Vic Braden to show how the brain is able to come to quick conclusion without us even consciously knowing it. Another example given by the author is of a recent experiment where participants were asked to make four word sentences from scrambled sets of words, where each set of words contained a similar themed word (such as rudeness, politeness, youthfulness). The participants would unknowingly adopt these behaviors that had been suggested to them through the sets of words.
I didn't want to quote an exact passage out of the book but the Braden example along with the rest of the book sheds a different light on the ability to watch and benefit capping .
If Braden, is able to watch a tennis serve and accurately predict a double fault before the ball is even hit, there has to be people out there who are able to do this in football.
Now being able to recognize that talent and applying it to betting in a profitable manner, that's a whole different ball game.
You make valid points but your talking about watching one man play tennis and I believe although not said that he was at the match vs someone watching 22 guys on a TV that only focuses on the ball. One more if anyone could learn something from watching the NHL on TV my hats off to them they actually for a little while had a blue line follow the puck on TV so people would watch. What this guy experienced in the tennis match IMO was a tell
Tribe, you said, "When I SEE that a team consistently ignores 2 for 1 opportunities in basketball for example, that's a slight mark against them. And its definitely built into the line."
Are there stats that show "ignored 2 for 1 opportunities"? Or is that something you picked up by watching games?
"And its definitely built into the line". So linesmakers deduct from a team's power rating for missed 2 for 1 opportunities? I'd be surprised if that's the case.
Tribe, you said, "When I SEE that a team consistently ignores 2 for 1 opportunities in basketball for example, that's a slight mark against them. And its definitely built into the line."
Are there stats that show "ignored 2 for 1 opportunities"? Or is that something you picked up by watching games?
"And its definitely built into the line". So linesmakers deduct from a team's power rating for missed 2 for 1 opportunities? I'd be surprised if that's the case.
I can tell from a play-by-play if a team missed a 2-for-1 opportunity, absolutely.
It's certainly not as direct as deducting from power rating's for missed 2 for 1 opportunities. But that was an example of how you can evaluate a coach from a box score, statistics, play-by-play, etc. without watching the game. And yes, the market certainly prices in coaching.
Looking at the forest through the trees, this is a great thread IMO, yes you have to weed through the BS but there's some good arguments when all is said and done. Bottom line for me is do what you feel works best for you in a very subjective topic, I don't think one can definitively say A vs. B in this particular subject, to say you cannot gain anything meaningful from observation is too general rather some may gain more than others would be more appropriate. Nice discussion gents. -R
tribe and contarian ,both of you owe your boy nfl guy a pat on the back for the winner last night on 49ers,easy as could be,send a box of chocolates also,and at what point does knocking nflgut day in and day out serve any real purpose,other then the laughts u get out of it.
tribe and contarian ,both of you owe your boy nfl guy a pat on the back for the winner last night on 49ers,easy as could be,send a box of chocolates also,and at what point does knocking nflgut day in and day out serve any real purpose,other then the laughts u get out of it.
That wire to wire winner last night brings his posted record to the following sterling figures......
It will def help. In baseball it may be different but for pitchers esp, its pretty easy to know what to look for. I remember vividly watching this game in 2011. http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?id=310408102
Bartolo Colon in relief. 4.3 innings 5k's 1BB
Now pretty much every single person in the world wrote this off as a complete outlier. The guy had not done anything in forever. But I watched. I saw a guy throwing his 2 seamer consistently 94 on the outer third to rightys and against leftys he would start it at their hip and it would come back and be a strike on the inside corner. I told my friend he looks like Greg Maddux with his control. It was really unhittable. Up until June 11th when he got hurt I bet quite a few Colon and unders. In that time he threw 70 innings with 62 K's and 16 BB. Not bad for a guy literally off the scrap heap who was undervalued in every start (hard to do when u pitch for the yankees).
I forgot about this post earlier and of course you are going to say that you filtered the plays to a much better result, but you split on Colon's sides and won about 4u on the unders. My point is that yeah, your eyes may have helped you get there a bit in the Colon spots and you certainly remember those instances.....but you obviously tend to forget all of the losers that your eyes put you on.
It is kind of analogous to a disagreement that one of my favorite posters and I always seem to have about the perception of a certain former forum owner's XL plays. It is easy to remember the wire to wire winners that he gave (always as the line was in motion I might add), but the losers (of which there were just as many, if not more) were easily forgotten and swept under the rug. That's what you're doing here, worm.....yeah you win some games with your eyes, but I'd be willing to bet you lose just as many if not more.
I am sure that you will disagree with me, but you weren't beating the closers by $.50/game this April by using a handicapping base of watching the games.
For those knocking Contra and Tribe for bringing up valid points when it comes to being profitable in the long run at the thing we're all here for,.....please consider the following with regards to NFL Picks Guy:
- He comes on here in august, and touts his website in his first ever post (Goats corrected it)
- Then he goes on semi-touting his website in 2 more posts (one of which he removed himself, within the 5 minutes allowed to edit)
- During NFLx he posts 6 plays, all separately, and he manages to go 0-6
- He also has 1 NCAAF pick in august, which also loses.
After this I recommend him to post his whole card, because the '1-pick-and-see-if-I-can-hit-5-in-a-row-to-tout-my-picks' strategy isn't working.
- He starts posting his whole card (so I presume) and has some horrible losing weeks in the beginning of the season. Also to note: he sees 8/9 EV+ picks every week.
- To his credit, he recovers nicely and has had a couple of winning and a couple of average weeks since.
- While he gives nice write-ups, the sharp reader notices him contradicting himself in some of the write-ups. He also uses the trends selectively to illustrate the reason for his pick. There will always be trends in favor, or against a pick.
- Some research done on whois.net reveals that his website domain was registered in August of this year. While he's been selling picks to his clients for almost 4 years now, according to his site. Quite the coincidence, first time to ever hear from him and his website goes on air almost simultaneously. Anybody heard from him before? Judging by his posted record his performance over last 4 years is almost as good as RAS' performance. Strangely enough there are no transparant updates as to his current season record,....actually there are no updates at all.
- And final point, judging from his records in the previous years he has averaged about 12 plays per week. Something squares love (action) and sharps can do without.
Given the fact that he can't even keep his own records straight, or tried to favorably portray them, should sound a big fat horn on your computer. Question before following. Be smart.
Just stating some facts NFLPicksGuy. Keep the picks coming, you've been doing well lately.
The guys arguing about data vs subjective should listen to the BS Report today. Haralabos interview starts at about 43min and he talks about this exact issue.
The guys arguing about data vs subjective should listen to the BS Report today. Haralabos interview starts at about 43min and he talks about this exact issue.
nobody has to buy or follow his picks,if he was real good there would be ppeople linning up to buy his service,but he puts out some informatiom that some people like,and of course u can make stats look 1 way or the other,but still he is berated day in and day out,which serves no purpose,but he has been decent since week 3 other then the minn moneyline play,which was foolish and most players cant get the best of lines most of the time,just my 2 cents
,but still he is berated day in and day out,which serves no purpose,
If he'd been an honest poster, keeping a straight record, not here for touting his picks but to actually add value to the board.....none of this would've happened.
I can name 20 other posters who are just plain honest,....none of them caught flak for their posts. Imo that's where the difference is.
my last 2 cents. Contra it is wonderful to know everything you 'should' do and the things that matter most when it comes to being a prolific or winning capper but the bottomline is are you winning personally or taking all of these tactics and stategies to the bank right now? You come across as so and literally talk down to everyone in a tone that wants us to think of you the gambling god of knowledge. Are you winning though? Have you won long term? What gives you the right to belittle people as so if you yourself aren't performing well above average or even above average? You sound like you have all the needed tools to be a winning capper and more specifically the ONLY winning tools according to you so if you are going to rip everyone else a new asshole on here then you should be kind enough to share all of your records. I assume they are astronomical and the current subscribed minions are piling endless C notes into their pockets?
Thank you OBI for your relevant and classy post. A well-balanced observation free of prejorative expressions that rely on foul language, negativity, contempt or distaste.
Comments
I've said it before - weeds is my kind of guy.
Lol at tommyL not wanting people to be an asshole at the expense of losing. What I'd give to be in a room with some of the truly great free AP's ripping my shit to shreds and giving me constructive criticism and sharing their stuff. One can always dream.
Meanwhile sweet little tommy l wants tea and crumpet parties with everybody kissy kissy strong poker mod
What constructive criticism did you give him in post #2 in this thread?
And I'm sorry that you think that showing respect to others (even if you disagree with them) makes it a "tea and crumpet" party.
One of the case studies he uses is tennis coach Vic Braden. Thought it was interesting to share this with you guys:
Vic Braden, a world renowned tennis coach, began to notice he had an incredible ability. He was able to successfully predict when a tennis player was about to double fault, almost 100 percent of the time. He was successfully predicting double faults on players he had never watched play before. This was an amazing feat for the fact that a professional tennis player might hit 100 serves in a match and only double fault no more than five times. When Braden was asked how he knew the player about to double fault he could not point out any specific reason action, he said he just knew. Braden said he would stay up for hours lying in his bed contemplating what he had seen that let know the player was about to double fault. Vic Braden was to his successful prediction in a “blink” of the eye. This rapid cognition was taking place in Braden’s collective unconscious.
Gladwell uses this story of Vic Braden to show how the brain is able to come to quick conclusion without us even consciously knowing it. Another example given by the author is of a recent experiment where participants were asked to make four word sentences from scrambled sets of words, where each set of words contained a similar themed word (such as rudeness, politeness, youthfulness). The participants would unknowingly adopt these behaviors that had been suggested to them through the sets of words.
Above excerpt quoted from http://www.bukisa.com/articles/398721_the-six-minute-book-summary-of-the-book-blink-the-power-of-thinking-without-thinking-by-malcolm-gladwell
I didn't want to quote an exact passage out of the book but the Braden example along with the rest of the book sheds a different light on the ability to watch and benefit capping .
If Braden, is able to watch a tennis serve and accurately predict a double fault before the ball is even hit, there has to be people out there who are able to do this in football.
Now being able to recognize that talent and applying it to betting in a profitable manner, that's a whole different ball game.
Correct, but everyone has to start somehwere. Edward, Stevie etc all started as posters on free message boards. Im not saying in anyway shape or form that the OP brings any value but I think you and Tribe both speak in to many absolutes. 97% of the time your going to be right obv but I would suggest opening your mind up a little bit.
Watching the NHL on TV is useless why do you think they can't get a TV audience it's to fast a game. In football there showing you the ball and QB there's really not much to be learned from that. The NBA can be of some help but once you learn the teams tendencies you don't need to watch. (NBA like no other sport is all about match-ups) You have teams in the NBA where just about every play is a pick and roll and ask yourself the team there playing do they have the talent and players to defend and take away for the most part the pick and roll. Your not a coach where he has his employees taking certain shots to be reviewed in the tape room that helps his team work on weakness's. You don't access to film like that you have access to what CBS and NBC want to show you. Line play in football is key to success instead of watching TV spend the time learning the names and weights and heights of teams O lines and D lines Good Luck so lets go back to it's about the numbers.
Also Yes you can fade people and show a profit, Difficult laying -110 but a little easier at reduced juice shops but you can show a profit.
I won't name the service but I tried an experiment last year in the NBA (This is a True Story) I email a service that from over the years hearing about people talking how he caps games and I read articles from him many times. Here was my deal I told him I would give him $100 per month and every time he was plus 2 Units at the end of the month I would send him another $100 and if he showed a profit at the end of the season I would pay his fee in full. My full intention was to fade his plays blindly. The season cost me $100 and my profit was decent nothing to brag about but enough to build my B/R so again you can show a profit by fading the right people and there's plenty around.
It will def help. In baseball it may be different but for pitchers esp, its pretty easy to know what to look for. I remember vividly watching this game in 2011. http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?id=310408102
Bartolo Colon in relief. 4.3 innings 5k's 1BB
Now pretty much every single person in the world wrote this off as a complete outlier. The guy had not done anything in forever. But I watched. I saw a guy throwing his 2 seamer consistently 94 on the outer third to rightys and against leftys he would start it at their hip and it would come back and be a strike on the inside corner. I told my friend he looks like Greg Maddux with his control. It was really unhittable. Up until June 11th when he got hurt I bet quite a few Colon and unders. In that time he threw 70 innings with 62 K's and 16 BB. Not bad for a guy literally off the scrap heap who was undervalued in every start (hard to do when u pitch for the yankees).
You make valid points but your talking about watching one man play tennis and I believe although not said that he was at the match vs someone watching 22 guys on a TV that only focuses on the ball. One more if anyone could learn something from watching the NHL on TV my hats off to them they actually for a little while had a blue line follow the puck on TV so people would watch. What this guy experienced in the tennis match IMO was a tell
Are there stats that show "ignored 2 for 1 opportunities"? Or is that something you picked up by watching games?
"And its definitely built into the line". So linesmakers deduct from a team's power rating for missed 2 for 1 opportunities? I'd be surprised if that's the case.
I can tell from a play-by-play if a team missed a 2-for-1 opportunity, absolutely.
It's certainly not as direct as deducting from power rating's for missed 2 for 1 opportunities. But that was an example of how you can evaluate a coach from a box score, statistics, play-by-play, etc. without watching the game. And yes, the market certainly prices in coaching.
That wire to wire winner last night brings his posted record to the following sterling figures......
NFL 42-42-1 (with a mega ML loser in there)
NCAA 10-14
Enjoy, best wishes!
/backpats
I forgot about this post earlier and of course you are going to say that you filtered the plays to a much better result, but you split on Colon's sides and won about 4u on the unders. My point is that yeah, your eyes may have helped you get there a bit in the Colon spots and you certainly remember those instances.....but you obviously tend to forget all of the losers that your eyes put you on.
It is kind of analogous to a disagreement that one of my favorite posters and I always seem to have about the perception of a certain former forum owner's XL plays. It is easy to remember the wire to wire winners that he gave (always as the line was in motion I might add), but the losers (of which there were just as many, if not more) were easily forgotten and swept under the rug. That's what you're doing here, worm.....yeah you win some games with your eyes, but I'd be willing to bet you lose just as many if not more.
I am sure that you will disagree with me, but you weren't beating the closers by $.50/game this April by using a handicapping base of watching the games.
You forgot the 0-4 NFLX.
You could get something out of it if you paid attention and wanted to learn.
Are you saying my 0-6 NFLx and 0-1 NCAAF count in august was wrong?
Oh, maybe not. He posted that he was 0-4 in NFLx. I trusted him. Are you saying he was 0-6?
For those knocking Contra and Tribe for bringing up valid points when it comes to being profitable in the long run at the thing we're all here for,.....please consider the following with regards to NFL Picks Guy:
- He comes on here in august, and touts his website in his first ever post (Goats corrected it)
- Then he goes on semi-touting his website in 2 more posts (one of which he removed himself, within the 5 minutes allowed to edit)
- During NFLx he posts 6 plays, all separately, and he manages to go 0-6
- He also has 1 NCAAF pick in august, which also loses.
After this I recommend him to post his whole card, because the '1-pick-and-see-if-I-can-hit-5-in-a-row-to-tout-my-picks' strategy isn't working.
- He starts posting his whole card (so I presume) and has some horrible losing weeks in the beginning of the season. Also to note: he sees 8/9 EV+ picks every week.
- To his credit, he recovers nicely and has had a couple of winning and a couple of average weeks since.
- While he gives nice write-ups, the sharp reader notices him contradicting himself in some of the write-ups. He also uses the trends selectively to illustrate the reason for his pick. There will always be trends in favor, or against a pick.
- Some research done on whois.net reveals that his website domain was registered in August of this year. While he's been selling picks to his clients for almost 4 years now, according to his site. Quite the coincidence, first time to ever hear from him and his website goes on air almost simultaneously. Anybody heard from him before? Judging by his posted record his performance over last 4 years is almost as good as RAS' performance. Strangely enough there are no transparant updates as to his current season record,....actually there are no updates at all.
- And final point, judging from his records in the previous years he has averaged about 12 plays per week. Something squares love (action) and sharps can do without.
Given the fact that he can't even keep his own records straight, or tried to favorably portray them, should sound a big fat horn on your computer. Question before following. Be smart.
Just stating some facts NFLPicksGuy. Keep the picks coming, you've been doing well lately.
Thanks. Listening now.
data over eyes
understand that large sample size is extremely important
understand variance
it's hard to win
Weird, those things all sound familiar.
I really wish Simmons would have shut up more and let Haralabos talk. His constant interrupting of him was tilting me.
Case motherfucking closed, I just won the internet
If he'd been an honest poster, keeping a straight record, not here for touting his picks but to actually add value to the board.....none of this would've happened.
I can name 20 other posters who are just plain honest,....none of them caught flak for their posts. Imo that's where the difference is.
That said, as I mentioned to Contrarian in another thread, these points need to be made and then dropped.
Maybe it will help if I speak their language...
#beatingadeadhorse
#youreclutteringuptheboard
#themodsaretiredofyourschtick
lol, here all of this time, I thought it was a DISCUSSION board and you actually wanted people posting. #noted