Interesting, Piers Morgan interviews a top dem on Wednesday and states, "please tell me that you know exactly what Romney meant when he mentioned binders of women?" Of course, no answer was given. But, Thursday, Piers Morgan doesn't appear on his own show. Hmmm... Homer, Ohio goes as Cuyhoga, mind the spelling, county and the suburbs of Cincy go. Voter turn out is expected to be at 15%-20% lighter this election. If this holds true, Ohio goes to Romney. Early voting is leaning towards Obama, yet polls showing Romney ahead or tied with Obama there. Obama now only -190 at Pinny.
RCP now has 206-201 Romney, and that isn't counting the 29 for Fla, where (using logic proposed in one of the posts about betting lines being better indicators) romney is favored to carry the state at -290.
are people in too deep now to see the writing on the wall? romney now with a lead in Pa, although Silver still has Pa as 90% winner for obama? i'm sure some will bash those polls and complain about bias (which apparently were bias free when obama had the lead), but if RCP keeps score for romney the way did for obama (as i noted on several occasions they do not), it would like this
uh-oh
i'm sure some will bash those polls and complain about bias (which apparently were bias free when obama had the lead), but if RCP keeps score for romney the way did for obama (as i noted on several occasions they do not), it would like this
Romney 255
Obama 201
where is the value again? which side is +EV?
I'll be honest, you're talking way too much from the "heart" when you're accusing RCP of using different methods depending on the candidate, or somehow cheating Romney in their projection.
As for Pennsylvania, take a look at the "Poll History" on Silver's page. There are 50 polls shown, and Romney has won exactly 2 of them. Both of the wins were from the "Susquehana" poll, which also had Obama at only +1 in both September and October. Look at the last 5 polls other than the Susquehana (all from this week), and you have Obama winning the state by 4, 4, 7, 7, and 5. You see this as Romney having "a lead in PA"?
I think betting on the election is silly. Do you realize how stupid most Americans are? Those who think Obama is a good choice are morons. Problem is that Romney is not very likeable. I hope this is not a popularity contest.
I think betting on the election is silly. Do you realize how stupid most Americans are? Those who think Obama is a good choice are morons. Problem is that Romney is not very likeable. I hope this is not a popularity contest.
I'll be honest, you're talking way too much from the "heart" when you're accusing RCP of using different methods depending on the candidate, or somehow cheating Romney in their projection.
As for Pennsylvania, take a look at the "Poll History" on Silver's page. There are 50 polls shown, and Romney has won exactly 2 of them. Both of the wins were from the "Susquehana" poll, which also had Obama at only +1 in both September and October. Look at the last 5 polls other than the Susquehana (all from this week), and you have Obama winning the state by 4, 4, 7, 7, and 5. You see this as Romney having "a lead in PA"?
you are correct sir, so lets leave Pa out of it then.
will you allow the other state, or should we ignore Fla as well, romney leading in 11 of last 12 polls there, including winning every one this week? let us get a consistent philosophy and stick to it. not trying to offend here sir as i have much respect for you, but you completely ignored the florida portion and its 29 votes.
let's just focus on the newly 206-201 lead. so you agree with silvers having obama still over 70%+ to win?
wasn't quite from the heart, as i have stated i find it highly unlikely form a math standpoint that over the last 7 or 8 months of polling data, the only measurable changes listed on RCP were either obama or toss-up. romney was at 170 or 191 for the entire history of the poll, where as obama went from 217 to 280 to 227 to to 253 to to 221 to 269 to the current 201. so over the course of time obama added or lost 22-68 electoral votes, but romneys only moved 11? obama experiencing changes of 25%-30%, but romney's never crossed the 10% mark?
you have been capping sports and betting for some time I assume. and you are damn good at it. do you honestly see no troubling patterns with the numbers in context of movement?
you are correct sir, so lets leave Pa out of it then.
will you allow the other state, or should we ignore Fla as well, romney leading in 11 of last 12 polls there, including winning every one this week? let us get a consistent philosophy and stick to it. not trying to offend here sir as i have much respect for you, but you completely ignored the florida portion and its 29 votes.
let's just focus on the newly 206-201 lead. so you agree with silvers having obama still over 70%+ to win?
wasn't quite from the heart, as i have stated i find it highly unlikely form a math standpoint that over the last 7 or 8 months of polling data, the only measurable changes listed on RCP were either obama or toss-up. romney was at 170 or 191 for the entire history of the poll, where as obama went from 217 to 280 to 227 to to 253 to to 221 to 269 to the current 201. so over the course of time obama added or lost 22-68 electoral votes, but romneys only moved 11? obama experiencing changes of 25%-30%, but romney's never crossed the 10% mark?
you have been capping sports and betting for some time I assume. and you are damn good at it. do you honestly see no troubling patterns with the numbers in context of movement?
I'd be very surprised if Obama wins Florida (the last 8 polls there are all favoring Romney, although only by an average of just over 3 points). However RCP seems to be pretty conservative in their projections (not talking in the liberal/conservative way) of what they consider a toss-up (ie having Pennsylvania a toss-up, which you already know how I feel about it).
If you take Silver vs. RCP, right now they agree on all but 3 states as to where they're heading (and each has 8 that they agree are still undecided). RCP still has Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-up, while Silver still has North Carolina in play. If I were doing a projection at this point, I'd be giving Obama Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Romney North Carolina. I guess there is still some chance that one of those 3 could go the other way, but it's very remote. So, I'd have the race at 239-206 in favor of Obama with 8 states left in play. With those other 8 states, I'd have Iowa and Wisconsin leaning pretty strongly to Obama, and Florida leaning pretty strongly to Romney. That would put it at 255-235 with 5 states still very much in play. Of those 5, Ohio's electoral votes (18) are obviously the big prize, and Ohio seems to be tilting towards Obama right now. Virginia/New Hampshire/Nevada/Colorado won't matter if Obama wins Ohio (unless he loses one of those states that got him to 201, Iowa, or Wisconsin, which I really see as unlikely).
What I'm really getting at is that I don't really see a good path for Romney without taking Ohio. That's really the key for him. Silver had Ohio at 72% for Obama right now, which kinda makes me surprised that his overall projection for Obama isn't a little higher (I think he's a little off somewhere, because if the overall number is right, then Ohio is probably a little high).
As for the numbers on RCP and how they've trended this year, I don't have a problem with them at all. You can look at the full history and see exactly when and why it changed each time that it changed. The Romney bounce off of the first debate made a lot of those numbers move (Obama lost Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio into the toss-up category), but at the end of the day, he's still ahead in all of those states and I think likely to win all of them. They could certainly be more aggressive with those states that I mentioned (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida) and put them into one bucket or the other, but I guess their definition of "toss-up" is more like 20% shot of winning the state.
RCP now has 206-201 Romney, and that isn't counting the 29 for Fla, where (using logic proposed in one of the posts about betting lines being better indicators) romney is favored to carry the state at -290.
are people in too deep now to see the writing on the wall? romney now with a lead in Pa, although Silver still has Pa as 90% winner for obama? i'm sure some will bash those polls and complain about bias (which apparently were bias free when obama had the lead), but if RCP keeps score for romney the way did for obama (as i noted on several occasions they do not), it would like this
I'm about 10 drinks in but wow am I getting sick of this shit. All u say is OMG Obama lockz! So aggravating. I know u guys all think I'm super biased Romney. I'm really not. Is there value at Obama -200? I really think u would have to be crazy to really think that. Is there value Romney plus 180? Maybe. I could see it. Please give me 1 good reason Obama -200 is value. And please don't say O H I O.
I'm about 10 drinks in but wow am I getting sick of this shit. All u say is OMG Obama lockz! So aggravating. I know u guys all think I'm super biased Romney. I'm really not. Is there value at Obama -200? I really think u would have to be crazy to really think that. Is there value Romney plus 180? Maybe. I could see it. Please give me 1 good reason Obama -200 is value. And please don't say O H I O.
I told you to bet the farm on romney.
If you were smart, you would analyze the state polls and see for yourself why Obama is -200 everywhere.
Romney spending no money in Pa. Why do you think that is? It's not because they have a slight lead, it's because they have given up on the state & are focusing on the real swing states
I want to know one good reason to vote for Obama and it can't be that he is not mitt Romney.
Bin Laden at the bottom of the ocean and the one guy in Yemen who seemed to have the charisma to replace him is also dead. Romney on record in 2007 saying he didn't believe it was worth going into Pakistan to pursue Bin Laden.
Let me guess you watch Faux News? Obama is leading in Virginia and the polls i've seen in Florida are within a couple points.
Classic response from a guy on one side or the other. It's so funny how you ask a question and immediately there is an attack from someone like you. One side screaming "stupid fox news watching...., other side screaming about MSNBC and Rachel Maddaow" Way to grasp on to that mob mentality that both sides have created. Let's get the sheep riled up..
Comments
boom
RCP now has 206-201 Romney, and that isn't counting the 29 for Fla, where (using logic proposed in one of the posts about betting lines being better indicators) romney is favored to carry the state at -290.
are people in too deep now to see the writing on the wall? romney now with a lead in Pa, although Silver still has Pa as 90% winner for obama? i'm sure some will bash those polls and complain about bias (which apparently were bias free when obama had the lead), but if RCP keeps score for romney the way did for obama (as i noted on several occasions they do not), it would like this
Romney 255
Obama 201
where is the value again? which side is +EV?
I'll be honest, you're talking way too much from the "heart" when you're accusing RCP of using different methods depending on the candidate, or somehow cheating Romney in their projection.
As for Pennsylvania, take a look at the "Poll History" on Silver's page. There are 50 polls shown, and Romney has won exactly 2 of them. Both of the wins were from the "Susquehana" poll, which also had Obama at only +1 in both September and October. Look at the last 5 polls other than the Susquehana (all from this week), and you have Obama winning the state by 4, 4, 7, 7, and 5. You see this as Romney having "a lead in PA"?
Wow. Lol
you are correct sir, so lets leave Pa out of it then.
will you allow the other state, or should we ignore Fla as well, romney leading in 11 of last 12 polls there, including winning every one this week? let us get a consistent philosophy and stick to it. not trying to offend here sir as i have much respect for you, but you completely ignored the florida portion and its 29 votes.
let's just focus on the newly 206-201 lead. so you agree with silvers having obama still over 70%+ to win?
wasn't quite from the heart, as i have stated i find it highly unlikely form a math standpoint that over the last 7 or 8 months of polling data, the only measurable changes listed on RCP were either obama or toss-up. romney was at 170 or 191 for the entire history of the poll, where as obama went from 217 to 280 to 227 to to 253 to to 221 to 269 to the current 201. so over the course of time obama added or lost 22-68 electoral votes, but romneys only moved 11? obama experiencing changes of 25%-30%, but romney's never crossed the 10% mark?
you have been capping sports and betting for some time I assume. and you are damn good at it. do you honestly see no troubling patterns with the numbers in context of movement?
I'd be very surprised if Obama wins Florida (the last 8 polls there are all favoring Romney, although only by an average of just over 3 points). However RCP seems to be pretty conservative in their projections (not talking in the liberal/conservative way) of what they consider a toss-up (ie having Pennsylvania a toss-up, which you already know how I feel about it).
If you take Silver vs. RCP, right now they agree on all but 3 states as to where they're heading (and each has 8 that they agree are still undecided). RCP still has Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-up, while Silver still has North Carolina in play. If I were doing a projection at this point, I'd be giving Obama Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Romney North Carolina. I guess there is still some chance that one of those 3 could go the other way, but it's very remote. So, I'd have the race at 239-206 in favor of Obama with 8 states left in play. With those other 8 states, I'd have Iowa and Wisconsin leaning pretty strongly to Obama, and Florida leaning pretty strongly to Romney. That would put it at 255-235 with 5 states still very much in play. Of those 5, Ohio's electoral votes (18) are obviously the big prize, and Ohio seems to be tilting towards Obama right now. Virginia/New Hampshire/Nevada/Colorado won't matter if Obama wins Ohio (unless he loses one of those states that got him to 201, Iowa, or Wisconsin, which I really see as unlikely).
What I'm really getting at is that I don't really see a good path for Romney without taking Ohio. That's really the key for him. Silver had Ohio at 72% for Obama right now, which kinda makes me surprised that his overall projection for Obama isn't a little higher (I think he's a little off somewhere, because if the overall number is right, then Ohio is probably a little high).
As for the numbers on RCP and how they've trended this year, I don't have a problem with them at all. You can look at the full history and see exactly when and why it changed each time that it changed. The Romney bounce off of the first debate made a lot of those numbers move (Obama lost Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio into the toss-up category), but at the end of the day, he's still ahead in all of those states and I think likely to win all of them. They could certainly be more aggressive with those states that I mentioned (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida) and put them into one bucket or the other, but I guess their definition of "toss-up" is more like 20% shot of winning the state.
You have to be on drugs.
I'm about 10 drinks in but wow am I getting sick of this shit. All u say is OMG Obama lockz! So aggravating. I know u guys all think I'm super biased Romney. I'm really not. Is there value at Obama -200? I really think u would have to be crazy to really think that. Is there value Romney plus 180? Maybe. I could see it. Please give me 1 good reason Obama -200 is value. And please don't say O H I O.
I told you to bet the farm on romney.
If you were smart, you would analyze the state polls and see for yourself why Obama is -200 everywhere.
If I were smart nice. My current position is 1800 to win 14.2 on Romney. Wanna trade?
Like I said, if you were smart you would realize why Obama is -200.
I could list several, but the fact that you hate him is enough for me.
Where did you get your info?
boom
Let me guess you watch Faux News? Obama is leading in Virginia and the polls i've seen in Florida are within a couple points.
6 of 8 polls conducted in Va in Oct on RCP have Romney leading
here is the link
If you throw out Rass, which is a joke, he is within a point on all. PPP just came out and Obama was up by 1.
So yeah, Obama should quit. JFC
Bin Laden at the bottom of the ocean and the one guy in Yemen who seemed to have the charisma to replace him is also dead. Romney on record in 2007 saying he didn't believe it was worth going into Pakistan to pursue Bin Laden.
Classic response from a guy on one side or the other. It's so funny how you ask a question and immediately there is an attack from someone like you. One side screaming "stupid fox news watching...., other side screaming about MSNBC and Rachel Maddaow" Way to grasp on to that mob mentality that both sides have created. Let's get the sheep riled up..
you realize that they received the highest rating for accuracy in the '08 election right?
Post #356
With a completely debased currency....YAY. Doesn't matter who gets in, that will continue
this is the wrong thread for that discussion