How to Make Plays with Really Big Juice?
TommyL
Super Moderator
What would you do with the following scenario...England plays San Marino today in soccer, and was -10000 on the money line. Based on the numbers that I ran, I give England a 99.8% chance of winning the game (and trust those numbers and really think that they are a bit of an underlay). I thought that eating the -10000 juice is a +EV play in this situation, and did make a play on it. However, trying to figure out what to put on it was a challenge. What is the optimal way to play something like this?
Suppose that my standard play is 1% of bankroll. It didn't really make sense to play 1 unit to win .01 units. At the same time, something like 50 units to win .5 units obviously seems way too aggressive. For those that are willing to play an enormous favorite if you find it to be +EV, how do you handle it? I'd be interested to hear thoughts on the following topic from some of the more serious posters on the site (no offense to anyone, but I don't really want the "it's dumb to play a favorite that big", since there certainly are spots where it should be an option).
Suppose that my standard play is 1% of bankroll. It didn't really make sense to play 1 unit to win .01 units. At the same time, something like 50 units to win .5 units obviously seems way too aggressive. For those that are willing to play an enormous favorite if you find it to be +EV, how do you handle it? I'd be interested to hear thoughts on the following topic from some of the more serious posters on the site (no offense to anyone, but I don't really want the "it's dumb to play a favorite that big", since there certainly are spots where it should be an option).
Comments
Proper full Kelly bet size is 79.8% of your BR.
If I was playing to win 1%, it would be a 100% play. If I'm playing to lay 1%, I'd win .01. I assume the optimal play is something in between those.
Great. I actually didn't even try it since I knew it would spit out something ridiculous (that is if you consider 80% of bankroll ridiculous).
And also, it's a little moot now since England jumped to -15000 after I played it. Plus I was looking at this from more of a philosophical standpoint since I already made my play on it.
-10000 is 100-1, not 10000-1.
Well, since full Kelly is generally seen as way too aggressive for pros, using something more realistic like 1/4 Kelly would only have you betting ~20% of your BR. Is that still ridiculous?
Something else to think about, and perhaps a better reason one might want to just skip a bet like this. For every 1/10 of a % you overestimate the win rate at, the proper bet amount drops drastically. And of course if it's somehow only a 99.0% play, the proper bet amount is zero.
Good academic exercise. Now if only there were a calculator to help my solve my dinner/wife issue for tonight.
On occasion I look to parlay with any other match that has an edge to reduce my risk.
No I missed that bomb, it was a nothing match in the middle of summer. Lost the acct I bet it at....I'll see if I can find it, was 8k to win $500, think he lost 7-6, 7-6....nothing like -8k before 10am.
I may not be betting them properly but I just treat it like any other wager.
Edited: found the ticket
edit. Sorry Tommy don't wanna hijack ur thread. I'm out.