NFL Week 1 Picks / Analysis

Here's my Week 1 Picks / Analysis.
I won't normally post all my picks but I figured why not for week 1. Enjoy, and good luck!



1) Houston vs: Miami
Pick: UNDER 43

The Dolphins have been a great under bet. Since 2006, they are 60.4% to the UNDER on the road (18-29 o/u). When playing a good team (above .500), on the road, they are 13-7 UNDERS. When playing as an away underdog they are 58% to the UNDER (15-22-1 o/u). The point is that this Defense is under estimated but in reality they boasted the 6th ranked defense in the league last year, also hitting 12-4 to the UNDERS last season.
The Texans play great defense at home, had the 4th ranked D allowing 15.4 points per game. That was good for 11-5 to the UNDER last season. Matt Schaub in his career vs; a bad opponent (less than .500), at home, is 12-4 UNDER. Since 2006, The Texans at home as a favorite, are 15-9 UNDER.
Houston had the 2nd best rushing attack, and Time of possession in the league last year, and nothing will change. However Miami ended with the 4th best rush Defense in the league and that should slow this game down a little. Miami’s offense was sluggish last year, avg 20.6 ppg, and it should take a few games for rookie QB Tannehill to find a rhythm. Schaub and company have high hopes for this season and I can possibly see them overlooking this game. The bottom line is that it’s week 1, we’re looking at 2 good defenses, and 1 bad offense, and the 1 good offense runs the rock very well. That’s an UNDER bet all day in my book.


2) Eagles @ Browns
Pick: Eagles -8.5

Last year the “Dream Team” turned out to be the disappointment team, going 8-8 and missing the playoffs. Despite having the 4th ranked offense, and 8th ranked defense in the league, Philly could not turn their talent into wins. Vick and company gave the ball away 2.4 times per game, (2nd worst in NFL), despite averaging 25 points per game, they lost 5 games by 7 or less points, certainly due to the turnovers. However last year the Eagles scored 23 ppg on the road, despite the turnovers. Cleveland on the other hand was 3rd best in the league with giveaways, only 1.2 per game, and they could ONLY muster a dismal 12.2 points per game at home. (23-12.2 = 10 and enough to cover already)
Cleveland’s Defense was respectable against the pass last season, but terrible against the run, ranking 30th in the league and giving up almost 150 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for them playing the Eagles who ran for fantastic 142 yards per game with Lesean McCoy. I DO believe the Eagles will be better this year, and score a lot of points, especially against bad run defenses. Vick is at his best when teams have to respect his play action. Their deep threat Desean Jackson has recommitted himself and reports from camp say Vick and Jackson have established a great connection again. Of course the Browns should be slightly improved, but I expect Rookie QB to have a learning curve, and don’t see many points coming from this offense that was one of the worst in the league last year. Play on Eagles -8.5
3&4) Jaguars @ Minnesota
Two Picks: Jaguars +3.5 & OVER 39.5

The Jags offense last season was very bad (last in league) but that should change with new head coach Mike Mularkey who was the OC for Atlanta since 2008 and helped their offense improve in their first year. Reports are Gabbert has improved a lot from last season, and I think Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson will make plays immediately for Gabbert. There’s nowhere for them to go but up right?
The Vikings are in the news for AP being questionable, bringing this Total down. But I think Toby Gerhart does enough to move the chains but I also think Peterson will get 15ish carries, and Percy Harvin is always one touch away from a big play. The Vikings defense gave up 28ppg last season, 31st in the league. The Vikes pass D gave up a lot of yards last year (26th) and I see the Jags getting to the end zone a few times. Minny was able to average 24 ppg at home last year despite averaging 2 turnovers per home game. If they reach 24 points, this game should sail over.
Here’s a very solid trend to consider: The last 5 season, when two teams play on turf, NOT in adverse weather, with a total between 35-39.5, the score goes OVER 62.5%. (110-66-2 o/u). Those games played in September; it goes over 59%. Last season games played on turf (faster), NOT in the rain, the score was 22-12 OVER with a low total (35-39.5). Teams that had 6 wins or less the previous year, are 55% ATS in their first game next year. Take the Jags +3.5.


5) Bills @ Jets
Picks: Bills + 3

While the Jets on paper should have the defense to dominate anyone at home, I am not nearly convinced that this team is focused yet. Between the media Tebow show every practice, and the first team offense not scoring a TD in preseason with their 3 starting receivers hurt for 3 of the games, the Jets have a lot to prove before I am gonna bet them as the favorite. Sanchez is 7-11 ATS as home chalk, while the Bills with Fitzpatrick under center are 14-8-1 ATS and 9-3 ATS on the road. The Bills defense is improved and on paper their front four looks awesome, adding Mario Williams in the offseason. The Jets rushing attack was not good last year (20th in the league) and it wont be easy against the Bills front to move the ball. Sanchez will have to win this game with his arm, but with the current Jets receivers I don’t think they can find the end zone enough to cover. The Jets only threw for 206 ypg last season and I don’t see that changing any time soon. The Jets surprisingly scored 24ppg last season (12th), but in reality greatly benefited from a lot of turnovers caused by their Defense. Their defense averaged 1.2 picks per game, and nearly 1 fumble recovery per game. This led to the Jets rankings 26th in Yards Per Game, but 12th in Points in the NFL. Without those extra possessions, the Jets struggle to score. Fitzpatrick threw 16 picks in 2011, but 9 came in the last 4 games after their season had spiraled. He made good decisions for the majority of the season. And Fred Jackson only fumbled twice in 2011. Teams that had 6 wins or less the previous year, are 55% ATS in their first game next year. This game will be close. Take the Points.


6) Patriots @ Titans
Pick: UNDER 47

First off, this is a fairly high total for week 1. A few trends regarding high week 1 totals:
-Teams that had a losing season the previous year, in week 1 of next season, playing as a dog, with a Total above 44, are 25-43-2 o/u, good for 63% UNDERS.
-Since 2006, teams playing in September, as a home dog, with a total above 44, are 12-19-1 o/u (59% UNDERS).
-Since 2006, the Titans, playing to a Total above 44, are 3-14 UNDER.
- Since 2006, Titans, playing as the underdog, with a Total above 44 are 1-11 UNDER.

The breakdown is pretty simple. If you paid attention to preseason you saw that Tom Brady took very minimal snaps. The Pats O-line is very thin, and not playing well yet. They should not be firing on all cylinders. Although Belichick is a different breed of coach, it became obvious during the playoffs that the Patriots lack of running game drastically hurt them. I expect them to try to establish that as they figure out their offensive line woes. Lineman say that run blocking is easier than pass blocking. Enough of the Pats drives should end in punts that we don’t see them light up the scoreboard.
The Titans defense was middle of the road last year, but better at home allowing less than 20 ppg, and was actually 1st in yards per completion. I would expect Tennessee to run better and more often than they did last year. They know they need to get CJ back to his old self, and playing the very mediocre rushing D Patriots should be a great opportunity. Take the UNDER.

7) Detriot vs: St Louis
Picks: UNDER 45.5

A high total here for a team that struggles to score; last year the Rams were last in scoring (12ppg) and a terrible 8 ppg on the road! Of course the Lions can score points, but 5 of their 8 home games last year went Under the total. The last 3 seasons the Rams are 17-7 to the UNDER when playing away, and 66.6% of their road games have gone UNDER since 2006. The most points scored on the Rams last year was 34 points (Cowboys), and if you take 34+8, you still hit Under. It usually takes for offenses to find a rhythm. Of course last year they did average 30 ppg at home, but that number is inflated by 48 & 49 point performances. They were also held under 20 points three times at home. As a rule when one team needs to score 10 points to beat their scoring average, bet the Under.




8) Bengals @ Ravens
Pick: Bengals + 6.5

There is a reason the Bengals were 5-3 straight up, and 5-1-2 ATS last season, they are better than people think. Andy Dalton looks like the real deal, and his connection with A.J Green is dangerous. They also score more than perception, hitting the OVER 11 times last year, and were ranked 11th in road scoring (22ppg). The Bengals Defense was solid last year, ranked 12th (ppg) and accomplished that while getting only 1 takeaway per game; if that improves they should have a very tough defense. Not many are taking the Bengals seriously this year, but they will be tough to beat. The Ravens have not been great as a home favorite in division match ups going 5-9-1 ATS since 2006. I think the Bengals will come in expecting to win, rather than trying to “be competitive.” As a rule, when teams truly expect to win, the games are tight. Take the points.


9) San Diego @ Oakland
Pick: San Diego +1

What happens when a team with loads of talent is supposed to win the super bowl? (Chargers / Cowboys the last several years) – They are often terrible against the number, and fall short, way short. But from my experience, when the media finally backs off, they get rid of a few “stars”, and start to have some real chemistry; look out. The Bolts still have plenty of talent on offense to move the ball. They racked up the yards last year putting up 400 YPG on the road and they should be able to put points up on a bad Raiders Defense, ranked bottom of the league in nearly every defensive stat category. Carson Palmer, as a starter since 2006, is 31-42 SU, and 30-41-2 ATS (41%). He has simply not been good for a few years, and has been bad ATS, why stop betting against him now? He doesn’t have a solid defense behind him, and threw more picks than TD’s last year. The Bolts should get the win, take the points.

10) Kansas City vs: Atlanta
Pick: K.C + 3

This one is simple. The Falcons are great at home, but not so great on the road. Last season, the birds won 4 road games, beating 4 teams with a combined record of 25-39 (Car, Ind, Det, Sea). Matt Ryan in September, on the road, is 1-6 ATS. The Falcons rushing Defense gets worse when they’re not at home, allowing over 120ypg (18th). With Jamal healthy, and a refocused Peyton Hillis, I expect a great showing from the #1 rushing offense from 2010. Also, new OC Brian Daboll likes to spread the field and I can only imagine that being a good thing for Matt Cassell and the rushing attack. The Chiefs have a true home field advantage, and Matt Cassel is 6-1 ATS as a home dog. I expect K.C. to come out with lots of energy and move the ball very well. Play on the Chiefs +3.


11) Green Bay vs: 49ers
Pick: UNDER 46.5

The Niners know theyre gonna have to keep Aaron Rogers off the field to win this game. I Expect Frank Gore to get a lot of carries against Green Bay’s mediocre rush Defense. While the Niners were 9th in scoring last year (24ppg), they benefited from a huge amount of turnovers that lead to a lot of their points. Without that this year, expect a come down year for this offense led by Alex Smith.
-In Smith’s career, he is 56% to the UNDER.
- Since 2006, the Niners playing to a total higher than 44, are 13-3 UNDERS.
-Aaron Rogers playing at a total above 45, is 17-9 to the UNDER.
- Rogers has only played at home vs winning team (above.500) eight times in his career, 5 of them fell UNDER the total by an average of nearly 2 touchdowns.
- September totals above 45 have gone UNDER 55% of the time since 2006.

12) Seattle @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona + 3

Here we have a rookie QB, being asked to cover 3 points, on the road, in his first pro game ever… no thanks. This Cardinals team is not good, but they ain’t that bad. Russell Wilson looked great in preseason, and will probably have a decent year. But this is an overreaction. Covering spreads on the road as the favorite in the NFL is tough stuff. The Cards at home play hard going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS last year. Since 2006 as a home underdog, the Cards are 10-8 straight up and 11-6-1 ATS. The Seahawks on the road since 2006, are a dismal 16-30 ATS, and as an away favorite are 4-8 ATS. The Cards last year lost only 2 home games the NYG & Pitt. And their QB play was very bad and it can only get better. Also if all else fails they can chuck the ball up the Fitz, which seemed to work a lot last year. Take the home team plus the points against a QB who’s never taken a pro snap.