NFL 2012 - Season Thread - Picks / Analysis
NFLPicksGuy
Senior Member
This is where I will post at least 1 pick every week, and analysis. I am pumped for wednesday night! - Most write ups are not this long, but as you know, pent up anxiety gives us more time to think. Here we go!
1) Cowboys @ Giants (Wednesday)
The Pick: OVER 44.5
Injuries to famous faces and a chance of storms have brought this total down to below 45. Witten is hurt and probably won’t play; Miles Austin is questionable (says he will play). But if anything is true about this classic matchup it’s that these offenses come alive, and I think the movement has given us value in the Over. Basically what we are looking for is each team to score in the 20’s, and I think that will happen. Let me throw a few trends/stats your way that apply:
- Eli and Romo have squared off 9 times, 6 have gone OVER.
- The last 5 years, at home, Giants are 28-19-1 OVER
- Giants at home vs: a winning team (.500 or better) are 14-7 OVER
- Romo in September & October is 20-11 OVER
- Eli Manning in September is 15-7 OVER.
- In the 9 games that Eli and Romo have played against each other, the Cowboys have averaged 28.5 ppg. Giants average 28.4 ppg. Only TWICE did either team score under 20 points.
- When these two teams play, points get scored, a lot of them. The average points scored in this matchup since 2005 is 51 points per game.
Both offenses were good last year, Giants ranked 7th (ppg), Cowboys ranked 15th (ppg), but were 10th in Yards Per Game, they suffered from a mediocre red zone offense (49% td rate- or 20th in the league). Jason Garrett has supposedly committed the team to improving the Red Zone offense.
There is a 60% chance of rain; in my experience rain does not affect the scoring, as much as it affects the line movement. Eli Manning has played in the rain 26 times in his career and has averaged 22.4 ppg; a mere 1 pt drop from his normal average.
As a bettor, when everyone zigs, it typically pays to zag. For the first time in a few years the media is not singing the praises of the Cowboys Offense and Super Bowl hopes, that’s probably the exact time they will come out firing on all cylinders. Yes these pass rushers are solid for both teams, and points are hard to come by against these D’s. But guys like Romo, Manning, Cruz, Nicks, Austin, Dez Bryant, Murray, Bradshaw, tend to “show up” for these prime time division rivalry games and find a way to top that 20-point mark. The last 5 years, both teams out perform their scoring averages and both average over 24 points per game for night games. Play the OVER 44.5 in this one.
- NFLPicksGuy
1) Cowboys @ Giants (Wednesday)
The Pick: OVER 44.5
Injuries to famous faces and a chance of storms have brought this total down to below 45. Witten is hurt and probably won’t play; Miles Austin is questionable (says he will play). But if anything is true about this classic matchup it’s that these offenses come alive, and I think the movement has given us value in the Over. Basically what we are looking for is each team to score in the 20’s, and I think that will happen. Let me throw a few trends/stats your way that apply:
- Eli and Romo have squared off 9 times, 6 have gone OVER.
- The last 5 years, at home, Giants are 28-19-1 OVER
- Giants at home vs: a winning team (.500 or better) are 14-7 OVER
- Romo in September & October is 20-11 OVER
- Eli Manning in September is 15-7 OVER.
- In the 9 games that Eli and Romo have played against each other, the Cowboys have averaged 28.5 ppg. Giants average 28.4 ppg. Only TWICE did either team score under 20 points.
- When these two teams play, points get scored, a lot of them. The average points scored in this matchup since 2005 is 51 points per game.
Both offenses were good last year, Giants ranked 7th (ppg), Cowboys ranked 15th (ppg), but were 10th in Yards Per Game, they suffered from a mediocre red zone offense (49% td rate- or 20th in the league). Jason Garrett has supposedly committed the team to improving the Red Zone offense.
There is a 60% chance of rain; in my experience rain does not affect the scoring, as much as it affects the line movement. Eli Manning has played in the rain 26 times in his career and has averaged 22.4 ppg; a mere 1 pt drop from his normal average.
As a bettor, when everyone zigs, it typically pays to zag. For the first time in a few years the media is not singing the praises of the Cowboys Offense and Super Bowl hopes, that’s probably the exact time they will come out firing on all cylinders. Yes these pass rushers are solid for both teams, and points are hard to come by against these D’s. But guys like Romo, Manning, Cruz, Nicks, Austin, Dez Bryant, Murray, Bradshaw, tend to “show up” for these prime time division rivalry games and find a way to top that 20-point mark. The last 5 years, both teams out perform their scoring averages and both average over 24 points per game for night games. Play the OVER 44.5 in this one.
- NFLPicksGuy
Comments
Yes and I will be zagging on the Dolphins as soon as the Houston Titanic (oops Texans) departs on Sunday
Actually I recently took 10 random First Year Starting QB's (3 were rookies). And I looked at their first full year as a starter. Over 153 games, the young QB's were 58% ATS (89-61 ATS). That's not a HUGE sample size, but my guess is that young QB's are under valued by the public.
Take that for what it's worth.
I'll bet the High School team. After all the NFL is an exact replica of the WWF
One thing I will point out is that last year when Schaub was healthy they beat up on the bad teams - beat Indy by 27 (Home), Miami by 10 (road), Tenn by 34 (road), Jack by 10 (Home), Cleveland by 18 (Home) and TB by 28 (road) - covered all those games and most comfortably except the Jacksonville game was close
He's been corrected by Goats already for posting his own website in a link. Looking at the records tab on his site you'll see that he gives out over 200 plays per NFL season. This means that he has over 12 plays on average per week. Can't imagine a real (and winning) tout having so many plays a week. Joined BT in august for the pre-season. He's 0-4 so far on his posted picks on here, so not really helping his business.
I don't doubt his good intentions, but he's far from being Stevie Y material.
My method is to find value, place a bet, and let the numbers play in my favor. If you only bet 5 games per weekend (assuming you're a 55% bettor) the chance that you go 2-3, is almost as likely as you go 3-2. But, if you bet 12 games per weekend, the odds that you go 7-5, are much better than going 5-7 (assuming you're a 55% bettor). My whole philosophy is to win long term. Of course by betting more games I decrease the odds of having that "huge" weekend. But I also greatly decrease the odds of the terrible weekend. Because I am a consistent good bettor, I choose to bring my variance down, by placing more bets. It works for me, and many other professionals I know. But to say that simply because I bet a higher number of games, makes me not a winner, or not a "real" tout, is simply incorrect. But I respect your opinion, and I don't disagree with the philosophy to bet only a few games, I just simply have chosen lower variance and more bets.
Posting Rule #7: Unless you are a paid site sponsor, do not refer to any past picks or post any records of picks that were not originally posted on the BettingTalk forum beforethe outcome was determined. This includes any picks given out in the chat room.
Thanks.
As for the general topic, being a 55% capper does not mean every pick you make will be a 55% pick, and it's highly unlikely that one will find that many +EV per week in a market as sharp as the NFL. This is the red flag pointed out earlier.
If picking 12 sides/totals per week works for you, then simply keep doing it. I think the NFL is too 'sharp' when it comes to the lines set out, to be finding so many valuable picks. I have over 10 picks this week, but holding my heart on them. Never had that many. Can't see me having more than 6-8 per week for the rest of the season. But that's me. You might want to post all your picks (instead of just 1) in a thread, so your record doesn't get skewed by variance. Wishing you the best of luck on the upcoming season,
Obi
Can't disagree more here....
- 1 TD and 3 FG's by Miami gives them 16 pts....Houston to push needs 29...that's way over 43....
-Also, if your betting Miami, it's because you think they can hold Houston to 24 pts or less, thus needing just 4 FG's to cover.
Betting as you descibed, will lose far more often than it will win.
Best line will be game day.
I won't normally post all my picks but I figured why not for week 1. Enjoy, and good luck!
1) Houston vs: Miami
Pick: UNDER 43
The Dolphins have been a great under bet. Since 2006, they are 60.4% to the UNDER on the road (18-29 o/u). When playing a good team (above .500), on the road, they are 13-7 UNDERS. When playing as an away underdog they are 58% to the UNDER (15-22-1 o/u). The point is that this Defense is under estimated but in reality they boasted the 6th ranked defense in the league last year, also hitting 12-4 to the UNDERS last season.
The Texans play great defense at home, had the 4th ranked D allowing 15.4 points per game. That was good for 11-5 to the UNDER last season. Matt Schaub in his career vs; a bad opponent (less than .500), at home, is 12-4 UNDER. Since 2006, The Texans at home as a favorite, are 15-9 UNDER.
Houston had the 2nd best rushing attack, and Time of possession in the league last year, and nothing will change. However Miami ended with the 4th best rush Defense in the league and that should slow this game down a little. Miamis offense was sluggish last year, avg 20.6 ppg, and it should take a few games for rookie QB Tannehill to find a rhythm. Schaub and company have high hopes for this season and I can possibly see them overlooking this game. The bottom line is that its week 1, were looking at 2 good defenses, and 1 bad offense, and the 1 good offense runs the rock very well. Thats an UNDER bet all day in my book.
2) Eagles @ Browns
Pick: Eagles -8.5
Last year the Dream Team turned out to be the disappointment team, going 8-8 and missing the playoffs. Despite having the 4th ranked offense, and 8th ranked defense in the league, Philly could not turn their talent into wins. Vick and company gave the ball away 2.4 times per game, (2nd worst in NFL), despite averaging 25 points per game, they lost 5 games by 7 or less points, certainly due to the turnovers. However last year the Eagles scored 23 ppg on the road, despite the turnovers. Cleveland on the other hand was 3rd best in the league with giveaways, only 1.2 per game, and they could ONLY muster a dismal 12.2 points per game at home. (23-12.2 = 10 and enough to cover already)
Clevelands Defense was respectable against the pass last season, but terrible against the run, ranking 30th in the league and giving up almost 150 yards per game. That doesnt bode well for them playing the Eagles who ran for fantastic 142 yards per game with Lesean McCoy. I DO believe the Eagles will be better this year, and score a lot of points, especially against bad run defenses. Vick is at his best when teams have to respect his play action. Their deep threat Desean Jackson has recommitted himself and reports from camp say Vick and Jackson have established a great connection again. Of course the Browns should be slightly improved, but I expect Rookie QB to have a learning curve, and dont see many points coming from this offense that was one of the worst in the league last year. Play on Eagles -8.5
3&4) Jaguars @ Minnesota
Two Picks: Jaguars +3.5 & OVER 39.5
The Jags offense last season was very bad (last in league) but that should change with new head coach Mike Mularkey who was the OC for Atlanta since 2008 and helped their offense improve in their first year. Reports are Gabbert has improved a lot from last season, and I think Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson will make plays immediately for Gabbert. Theres nowhere for them to go but up right?
The Vikings are in the news for AP being questionable, bringing this Total down. But I think Toby Gerhart does enough to move the chains but I also think Peterson will get 15ish carries, and Percy Harvin is always one touch away from a big play. The Vikings defense gave up 28ppg last season, 31st in the league. The Vikes pass D gave up a lot of yards last year (26th) and I see the Jags getting to the end zone a few times. Minny was able to average 24 ppg at home last year despite averaging 2 turnovers per home game. If they reach 24 points, this game should sail over.
Heres a very solid trend to consider: The last 5 season, when two teams play on turf, NOT in adverse weather, with a total between 35-39.5, the score goes OVER 62.5%. (110-66-2 o/u). Those games played in September; it goes over 59%. Last season games played on turf (faster), NOT in the rain, the score was 22-12 OVER with a low total (35-39.5). Teams that had 6 wins or less the previous year, are 55% ATS in their first game next year. Take the Jags +3.5.
5) Bills @ Jets
Picks: Bills + 3
While the Jets on paper should have the defense to dominate anyone at home, I am not nearly convinced that this team is focused yet. Between the media Tebow show every practice, and the first team offense not scoring a TD in preseason with their 3 starting receivers hurt for 3 of the games, the Jets have a lot to prove before I am gonna bet them as the favorite. Sanchez is 7-11 ATS as home chalk, while the Bills with Fitzpatrick under center are 14-8-1 ATS and 9-3 ATS on the road. The Bills defense is improved and on paper their front four looks awesome, adding Mario Williams in the offseason. The Jets rushing attack was not good last year (20th in the league) and it wont be easy against the Bills front to move the ball. Sanchez will have to win this game with his arm, but with the current Jets receivers I dont think they can find the end zone enough to cover. The Jets only threw for 206 ypg last season and I dont see that changing any time soon. The Jets surprisingly scored 24ppg last season (12th), but in reality greatly benefited from a lot of turnovers caused by their Defense. Their defense averaged 1.2 picks per game, and nearly 1 fumble recovery per game. This led to the Jets rankings 26th in Yards Per Game, but 12th in Points in the NFL. Without those extra possessions, the Jets struggle to score. Fitzpatrick threw 16 picks in 2011, but 9 came in the last 4 games after their season had spiraled. He made good decisions for the majority of the season. And Fred Jackson only fumbled twice in 2011. Teams that had 6 wins or less the previous year, are 55% ATS in their first game next year. This game will be close. Take the Points.
6) Patriots @ Titans
Pick: UNDER 47
First off, this is a fairly high total for week 1. A few trends regarding high week 1 totals:
-Teams that had a losing season the previous year, in week 1 of next season, playing as a dog, with a Total above 44, are 25-43-2 o/u, good for 63% UNDERS.
-Since 2006, teams playing in September, as a home dog, with a total above 44, are 12-19-1 o/u (59% UNDERS).
-Since 2006, the Titans, playing to a Total above 44, are 3-14 UNDER.
- Since 2006, Titans, playing as the underdog, with a Total above 44 are 1-11 UNDER.
The breakdown is pretty simple. If you paid attention to preseason you saw that Tom Brady took very minimal snaps. The Pats O-line is very thin, and not playing well yet. They should not be firing on all cylinders. Although Belichick is a different breed of coach, it became obvious during the playoffs that the Patriots lack of running game drastically hurt them. I expect them to try to establish that as they figure out their offensive line woes. Lineman say that run blocking is easier than pass blocking. Enough of the Pats drives should end in punts that we dont see them light up the scoreboard.
The Titans defense was middle of the road last year, but better at home allowing less than 20 ppg, and was actually 1st in yards per completion. I would expect Tennessee to run better and more often than they did last year. They know they need to get CJ back to his old self, and playing the very mediocre rushing D Patriots should be a great opportunity. Take the UNDER.
7) Detriot vs: St Louis
Picks: UNDER 45.5
A high total here for a team that struggles to score; last year the Rams were last in scoring (12ppg) and a terrible 8 ppg on the road! Of course the Lions can score points, but 5 of their 8 home games last year went Under the total. The last 3 seasons the Rams are 17-7 to the UNDER when playing away, and 66.6% of their road games have gone UNDER since 2006. The most points scored on the Rams last year was 34 points (Cowboys), and if you take 34+8, you still hit Under. It usually takes for offenses to find a rhythm. Of course last year they did average 30 ppg at home, but that number is inflated by 48 & 49 point performances. They were also held under 20 points three times at home. As a rule when one team needs to score 10 points to beat their scoring average, bet the Under.
8) Bengals @ Ravens
Pick: Bengals + 6.5
There is a reason the Bengals were 5-3 straight up, and 5-1-2 ATS last season, they are better than people think. Andy Dalton looks like the real deal, and his connection with A.J Green is dangerous. They also score more than perception, hitting the OVER 11 times last year, and were ranked 11th in road scoring (22ppg). The Bengals Defense was solid last year, ranked 12th (ppg) and accomplished that while getting only 1 takeaway per game; if that improves they should have a very tough defense. Not many are taking the Bengals seriously this year, but they will be tough to beat. The Ravens have not been great as a home favorite in division match ups going 5-9-1 ATS since 2006. I think the Bengals will come in expecting to win, rather than trying to be competitive. As a rule, when teams truly expect to win, the games are tight. Take the points.
9) San Diego @ Oakland
Pick: San Diego +1
What happens when a team with loads of talent is supposed to win the super bowl? (Chargers / Cowboys the last several years) They are often terrible against the number, and fall short, way short. But from my experience, when the media finally backs off, they get rid of a few stars, and start to have some real chemistry; look out. The Bolts still have plenty of talent on offense to move the ball. They racked up the yards last year putting up 400 YPG on the road and they should be able to put points up on a bad Raiders Defense, ranked bottom of the league in nearly every defensive stat category. Carson Palmer, as a starter since 2006, is 31-42 SU, and 30-41-2 ATS (41%). He has simply not been good for a few years, and has been bad ATS, why stop betting against him now? He doesnt have a solid defense behind him, and threw more picks than TDs last year. The Bolts should get the win, take the points.
10) Kansas City vs: Atlanta
Pick: K.C + 3
This one is simple. The Falcons are great at home, but not so great on the road. Last season, the birds won 4 road games, beating 4 teams with a combined record of 25-39 (Car, Ind, Det, Sea). Matt Ryan in September, on the road, is 1-6 ATS. The Falcons rushing Defense gets worse when theyre not at home, allowing over 120ypg (18th). With Jamal healthy, and a refocused Peyton Hillis, I expect a great showing from the #1 rushing offense from 2010. Also, new OC Brian Daboll likes to spread the field and I can only imagine that being a good thing for Matt Cassell and the rushing attack. The Chiefs have a true home field advantage, and Matt Cassel is 6-1 ATS as a home dog. I expect K.C. to come out with lots of energy and move the ball very well. Play on the Chiefs +3.
11) Green Bay vs: 49ers
Pick: UNDER 46.5
The Niners know theyre gonna have to keep Aaron Rogers off the field to win this game. I Expect Frank Gore to get a lot of carries against Green Bays mediocre rush Defense. While the Niners were 9th in scoring last year (24ppg), they benefited from a huge amount of turnovers that lead to a lot of their points. Without that this year, expect a come down year for this offense led by Alex Smith.
-In Smiths career, he is 56% to the UNDER.
- Since 2006, the Niners playing to a total higher than 44, are 13-3 UNDERS.
-Aaron Rogers playing at a total above 45, is 17-9 to the UNDER.
- Rogers has only played at home vs winning team (above.500) eight times in his career, 5 of them fell UNDER the total by an average of nearly 2 touchdowns.
- September totals above 45 have gone UNDER 55% of the time since 2006.
12) Seattle @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona + 3
Here we have a rookie QB, being asked to cover 3 points, on the road, in his first pro game ever no thanks. This Cardinals team is not good, but they aint that bad. Russell Wilson looked great in preseason, and will probably have a decent year. But this is an overreaction. Covering spreads on the road as the favorite in the NFL is tough stuff. The Cards at home play hard going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS last year. Since 2006 as a home underdog, the Cards are 10-8 straight up and 11-6-1 ATS. The Seahawks on the road since 2006, are a dismal 16-30 ATS, and as an away favorite are 4-8 ATS. The Cards last year lost only 2 home games the NYG & Pitt. And their QB play was very bad and it can only get better. Also if all else fails they can chuck the ball up the Fitz, which seemed to work a lot last year. Take the home team plus the points against a QB whos never taken a pro snap.