Political Futures and math question
homerplayer
Senior Member
So I took some positions on Romney earlier this year in March, April and July. Suffice to say given polling data that puts the election at a pick 'em, as it has for the last 6 months, I see taking Romney at anything better than +100 is good play.
So I tallied up my positions currently on Romney and the price equals out to +176.
I want to add more, but would that be a bad play?
My instinct is that would be, even though I feel anything + on Romney is a good play. 5D has him at +158 at the moment, so if I take another position it would reduce my current price from +176.
I am torn.
Not looking for any political views, but can anyone guide or suggest on strictly the math?
I have +176
Current +158 (5D)
Add to it Pinny has it +148
Neither guy polling over 48%
Would the final number I get offset the reduction in my current price given that my ending price would still be better than what is currently available?
So I tallied up my positions currently on Romney and the price equals out to +176.
I want to add more, but would that be a bad play?
My instinct is that would be, even though I feel anything + on Romney is a good play. 5D has him at +158 at the moment, so if I take another position it would reduce my current price from +176.
I am torn.
Not looking for any political views, but can anyone guide or suggest on strictly the math?
I have +176
Current +158 (5D)
Add to it Pinny has it +148
Neither guy polling over 48%
Would the final number I get offset the reduction in my current price given that my ending price would still be better than what is currently available?
Comments
The Democratic candidate, in this day and age, always has a leg up, because he is certain to win California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, DC, and yes, Massachusetts. He is also a big favorite in states like Rhode Island, Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin. If you give Obama all those states alone, he has (assuming I did my math correctly) 207 electoral votes, and 270 is needed to win. Obama would be a favorite also in Pennsylvania, Maine, Connecticut, Delaware, and Vermont, adding another 37, bringing him to 244. And while the Republican will generally be a heavy favorite in a lot of states, these states are generally less populated.
In other words, Romney, mathematically, has no room for error. He basically has to win each and every large battleground state...Ohio, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia. If Romney loses Florida or Texas, he is toast. Lose Ohio or North Carolina, and he is not finished, but is on life support.
Agreed, don't want to get into a political debate (I actually would, but don't know if BT is the right place). I think Obama at -160 is amazing value. Unfortunately, I bet with my heart and not my head and could never bet on him to win... But I can't see him losing...
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
Feels like the election has been going on for a while but the reality is so much is still to come. Conventions, debates and how the economy goes the next few months. I don't really think it will be Obamas fault if somehow the Dow drops to 10k or something crazy the new few months but it would most likely do him in.
I don't hold much hope for him in the debates. His only hope is an economic crash, the VP nomination, and he releases clean tax returns. That last issue is not going to just go away.
Google PPT (Plunge Protection Team)... I wouldn't hold my breath on an economic crash... Unless Europe blows up I don't see the S&P going below 1250... However, I think we get a bloodbath in early 2013.
Thanks but i'm familiar with PPT. It's a mess. I think i'm voting Gary Johnson.
On August 31, day after the GOP Convention, look to possibly scalp back some BHO if available. A week later on Sept 7, day after the Democratic Convention, if feasible enhance your position on Romney.
Careful, the reigning champ usually tough to dethrone. I'm currently long on BHO and looking to do just the opposite I've suggested to you. So far IMO, Romney doesn't seem to connect to John Q Public. Comes off a little too aloof.
Economy is shit.
History has already been made.
I don't think that a guy that ran on hope and change can run the same way in '12.
Given the last two points, I don't see him generating the same voter turnout he did 4 years ago. He cannot run on his record, so his campaign slogan will be along the lines of "Romney is Satan's child and eats puppy dogs." I just don't think his change from a positive campaign to a completely negative one will play with the American public.
Electoral maps I check are all over the place. Think Romney takes Wisc and Iowa, opposite of something mentioned above. Also see that Michigan is in play. Michigan? They love their Dems up there.
I just really don't think either guy will run away with it, making either guy at +odds a solid play.
Was also looking at a possible Arb if barry gets low enough.
Not necessarily disagreeing with much of your post, but Obama winning Texas? Seriously? California and Michigan are more in play than Texas is.
You are thinking about this from your GOP point of view. You need to step back and look at the map and polling.
I am looking from my 'want to win money and recognize some value here' POV.
The economy indeed sucks, he won on a vague, happy and positive campaign in '08, making history as the first African American ever elected President of the United States. That helped increase voter turn-out.
As Jimmy once famously said "It is the economy stupid". Well, it sucks and is probably number one issue with the majority of voters that aren't already decided on whom they are voting for. The die hards will vote party no matter what. but the folks with a vested interest in the economy (unemployed, employed, small business owners) put the economy first and have to choose between a guy sporting some of the worst unemployment numbers over his first term and an evil dude that made a fuckton of money in real life.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/stocks-obama-wins-stocks-down-romney-p-stovall-120943214.html
Sunk cost my friend, save up your dough.....
Read what I posted again. You are letting your personal political feelings interfere. There is no value on Romney at anywhere near +100.
Just added this morning to +176 with this position
133750628-1 9/3/12 12:14pm Pending 11/6/12 6:00am Politics Other Sports 1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +175* vs Barack Obama wins 2012 election
Put half of what I wanted to. If Romney odds went up after GOP Convention, how high will they go after Dems Convention?
Monday, September 03, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
During August, the number of Republicans in the country reached the highest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports. In each of the recent election cycles, the victorious party has gained in net partisan identification over the course of the election year.
And there is for sure an enthusiasm gap in favor of the Reps.
I just feel like we are still missing the point. barry won on hope, change, tears, women passing out at his events to vote for me cause the other guy eats puppies. Rep turnout will be higher, Dem turnout will be lower and independents are going to move to the Right.
How much data do you need to see the value in +175? Romney will take the following: Ohio, Fla, N Carolina. Ballgame.
Don't get me wrong..I am going to vote for Romney. But I would never BET Romney to win.
I'd never checked it out before. Thanks, a lot of good/interesting info there.
so u guys see those numbers
and compare it to the prices of 210/175
and u understand that suggests barry has a ~67% implied probability of winning the election, yes?
forget the politics, if your heart and/or knee-jerk will let you, and read that part again. I am telling you those numbers do not support one another. either the polling data is incorrect, or the price is incorrect. so we have the following
if polling data is correct, price is wrong and romney is +EV
if polling data is incorrect, price is still wrong, but you would need a crystal ball to see which side is +EV. and since we have no crystal ball inhouse, neither side is +EV.
i can articulate why romney is +EV in this situation as i see it, so feel free to support your position that barry at -210 is a solid play.
For me Silver blows away the RCP stuff.
yes sir, did that. but, as with everything else, i consider the source.
much like folks on BT consider the source of this thread as being biased.
also noticed his state by state map giving obama nev, col, wisc, ohio and va, despite all being well within the margin for error in the polling data. i also wonder what poll he is looking at that gives barry 50%+, despite him polling at 44%. strange results. would love to see the internals on every one of his graphs.
i will, however, make as many notes, or copy and paste because he sure is throwing out some precise scenarios. and if he is right, then 4 years from now i will tail or fade.
and i thank you for the words of caution.