NBA Guru - June Picks Thread
NBA Guru
Senior Member
2011-2012 NBA Record
ALL SINGLE UNIT TOTAL: 211-192 (-0.2 units)
====================
5* 3-0 (+15.0 units)
4* 17-20 (-20.0 units)
3* 39-28 (+24.6 units)
2* 55-38 (+27.4 units)
1* 113-128 (-27.8 units)
====================
STAR WEIGHTED TOTAL: 227-214 (+19.3 units)
(Updated through 6/1/12)
ALL SINGLE UNIT TOTAL: 211-192 (-0.2 units)
====================
5* 3-0 (+15.0 units)
4* 17-20 (-20.0 units)
3* 39-28 (+24.6 units)
2* 55-38 (+27.4 units)
1* 113-128 (-27.8 units)
====================
STAR WEIGHTED TOTAL: 227-214 (+19.3 units)
(Updated through 6/1/12)
Comments
1* OKC FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL UNDER 49 (Bookmaker)
TT will count towards unweighted record
Best,
Guru
1* Miami TEAM TOTAL UNDER 25 1Q (Bookmaker)
There are some 50s out there on the FH TT.
2* Miami TEAM TOTAL UNDER 98 (Pinnacle)
1* Miami TEAM TOTAL UNDER 49 FIRST HALF (Bookmaker)
Nice to see a fellow Coloradoan.
Please note the following thread for questions and comments. This thread is for plays only. Ultimately I like the UNDER a lot and OKC medium. Good luck.
http://www.bettingtalk.com/threads/166880-NBA-Guru-Discussion-Comment-Question-Thread/page22
3* Mia TT UNDER 49 FH (Bookmaker)
2* Mia TT UNDER 24.5 1Q (Bookmaker)
2* OKC +2 FH (Bookmaker)
2* OKC +1 1Q (Bookmaker/Pinnacle)
I've gone back though every single play posted over the last 2 seasons and found some interesting trends that I believe will allow us to do better next season. First, some people asked if second half plays did better than our overall results. The answer is surprisingly a big no. Despite being up +10.2 units cumulatively over the last 2 seasons, second half plays were down -29.9 units. It turns out all quarter plays (either 1st quarter or In-Running quarters) were also negative. Full Game plays and First Half plays were by far the most profitable combining for +60.9 units over the two year period. Obviously the other categories dragged us down a lot. The following table represents the results over the last 2 years for FULL GAME and FIRST HALF plays combined:
5* 12-8 (+20.0 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.42 ppg
4* 28-19 (+24.4 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.09 ppg
3* 82-46-2 (+94.2 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.95 ppg
2* 96-107-2 (-43.4 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.22 ppg
1* 134-153-8 (-34.3 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.14 ppg
===============================================
TOTAL 352-333-12 (+60.9 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.74 ppg
With this being the case we are not going to play second half plays next year. Nor will we play quarter plays, in-running plays, etc. It will only be first half plays and full game plays. Not only do I think this will improve our performance but it is also good news considering second half plays and in-running plays are much harder to get on due to the timing of them. This should make the plays easier to follow and get on.
The next interesting observation that is going to change the way we play going forward is that Totals did better than Team Totals and/or Sides. Our record on TOTALS ONLY for the last 2 seasons combined is in the table below:
5* 20-14 (+23.0 units) Avg Margin of Victory 2.40 ppg
4* 25-28 (-23.2 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.34 ppg
3* 55-42-3 (+26.4 units) Avg Margin of Victory 2.09 ppg
2* 114-86-3 (+38.8 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.39 ppg
1* 135-163-5 (-44.3 units) Avg Margin of Victory -0.52 ppg
=============================================
TOTAL 349-333-11 (+20.7 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.62 ppg
So with this being the case we are going to focus only on totals and not play sides or team totals next year. Not only do I think this will improve our performance but it is also good news considering some people had difficulty getting on some of the team totals. Again, this should make the plays easier to follow and get on. It should also improve production since I will more time to cap each game since I will no longer be capping sides.
One of the most obvious observations that was pointed out by a few people is that our lowest ranked 1* plays have done very poorly, as you can see below from our last 2 years of results:
5* 35-32-2 (-5.5 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.65 ppg
4* 50-50 (-20.0 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.17 ppg
3* 124-98-6 (+48.6 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.42 ppg
2* 211-172-6 (+43.6 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.97 ppg
1* 257-285-11 (-56.5 units) Avg Margin of Victory -0.30 ppg
==============================================
TOTAL 677-637-25 (+10.2 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.51 ppg
Using plays that only ranked as 2* or higher would produce much better results:
2*+ 420-352-14 (+66.7 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.06 ppg
Going forward we will not be releasing any 1* plays. If a play does not qualify as a 2* play then it will not be made.
The last observation made from these previous 2 seasons is that early season results have dominated. This follows the RAS model that lines are weakest earliest in the season. During the first 5 weeks of each of the last 2 seasons combined we have seen the following results:
4* 1-0 (+4.0 units) Avg Cover Margin 3.0 ppg
3* 12-2 (+29.4 units) Avg Cover Margin 12.4 ppg
2* 25-8 (+32.4 units) Avg Cover Margin 8.7 ppg
1* 74-53 (+16.8 units) Avg Cover Margin 1.9 ppg
======================================
TOTAL 112-63 (+82.6 units) Avg Cover Margin 4.0 ppg
This tells me we're being too conservative early in the season. We are going to place more emphasis on early season games and be more conservative as the season goes along.
We believe these changes listed above will help us improve our results going forward.
I want to touch on a few other items as a part of this recap;
1) We believe 4* and 5* plays have under achieved in two ways. First, the sample size is small. Second, these plays combined have had an average cover margin of 0.78ppg. This should have resulted in positive units, not -25.5. Albeit 0.78 ppg is not ideal and we believe this is partially due to a small sample size, it's enough to beat the juice and show a profit in the long haul.
2) In games decided by 2 points or less our record is -20.9 units. In games decided by 3 points or less we have lost -35.6 units. In games decided by 4 point or less we have lost -62.5 units. This tells me weve lost an abnormal % of 1-2 bucket games. This should be closer to break even and this tells me weve had bad luck in close games and should do better going forward.
3) We are going to make an effort to post plays a little earlier. I'm sure with uncertainties in injuries status, confirmation of starting line-ups/rotations coming out later in the days, and other variables we will continue to have plays posted in the hour leading up to gametime, but we will also spend more time doing advanced capping and working to post plays earlier before the lines move against us so that we can add some value to our plays.
In closing I'm putting up a graph that charts our cumulative progress over the last 2 seasons. Our cumulative net high point was +96.8 units and the lowest point was -16.2 units. 87.5% of the time over the last 2 years we have been in the positive. Additionally, if you look at the natural trend line it indicates we are headed in the right direction despite the epic free fall over the last month of this most recent season's playoffs. I'm not sure the best way to attach this graph as it seems to show up very small, but I think you may be able to click on it to enlarge it. Otherwise we can explore another way to post it larger for those who want to see it.
Graph.jpg
Ultimately these changes will have a big impact on play quantity. We may only have 150-200 plays per season, but I think this approach will help us with our overall production in the long run and to bounce back from this past season.
Regards,
NBA Guru
I actually think that might work for you. If you are going to keep on posting gameday picks, sides are going to be difficult to beat. Focus on totals and you might develop a consistent edge with them.
If the gameday market turns out to be too strong, start looking into the openers and circled games market. Just look at the one significant overnight total bet you had last year on the LAC/MEM game. You crushed the closer and the final score.
Is it worrisome that MikeRAS and I have to tell you this kind of stuff given your experience? Yes somewhat. But everybody can evolve and can use help from others to get better.