These teams are a combined 41 of 42 from the FT line through 3Q? I know OKC can shoot from the stripe, but Wow!
If anyone doesn't think the refs have absolute complete control over the pace and scoring of a game I would submit this as Exhibit A. Still may go under but these guys are going to wear out the ball in the whistles. And of course they are shooting the FT's at about a 90% clip.
Its been a rough last 4-5 days with a few hard to swallow losses on bigger plays. We're still up a few stars in the playoffs. We should be able to finish these last 3+ series out strong showing some profit. I'm looking forward to some good games in these last few rounds, and hopefully some weak lines to play into.
Its been a rough last 4-5 days with a few hard to swallow losses on bigger plays. We're still up a few stars in the playoffs. We should be able to finish these last 3+ series out strong showing some profit. I'm looking forward to some good games in these last few rounds, and hopefully some weak lines to play into.
This late in the game you expect to see weak lines?
Yeah losing UNDER 84 team total on 76's was a real tough beat, they only had 50 at halftime.
Get real.
While I agree it sucked to lose when we had 12 points to give with 3 minutes left....It was a miracle to even have a chance to win it in the first place.
Yeah losing UNDER 84 team total on 76's was a real tough beat, they only had 50 at halftime.
Get real.
While I agree it sucked to lose when we had 12 points to give with 3 minutes left....It was a miracle to even have a chance to win it in the first place.
This point could have been made without the attitude and "Get real" comment.
I just love the way these Miami players give a foul to stop the clock so they can get a time out and get some subs in. Twice now while Pacers are in bonus and get free throws.
This point could have been made without the attitude and "Get real" comment.
Aw shucks, losing that 76's team total UNDER 84 was an awful tough beat the other night. I know they had 50 at halftime but golly gee whitakers we all knew that they would die in the 2H. It was plain ole rotten crummy luck that with 3 minutes left we had 12 points to give and still lost.
No, but you already knew that. I have better things to do. If you don't know how and/or refuse to make a point without being childish and inflammatory, please go back into hiding. Thanks.
This late in the game you expect to see weak lines?
Absolutely. This isn't regular season college. Lots of public money supporting some of these lines.
Case in point, SA vs. OKC. The public loves OKC because of their star power and flashy play. SA is at least 3.5 points better on a neutral court, which if you do a generic simulation for this series as HHVVHVH they win the series at least 79% of the time. Did you know that in the last 26 SA games with Parker and Ginobili playing they are 25-1 SU (0.962) and 21-3-2 ATS (88%). Adjusting for strength of schedule during this stretch they are a net positive 14.7ppg. I don't want to get into a back and forth debate, I'm just giving my opinion. That's all I'm here to do. If you believe there are no weak lines at this point then obviously your best move is not to place any wagers.
Yeah losing UNDER 84 team total on 76's was a real tough beat, they only had 50 at halftime.
Get real.
While I agree it sucked to lose when we had 12 points to give with 3 minutes left....It was a miracle to even have a chance to win it in the first place.
Ahh, everyone's friend Burger is back. We missed you.
Absolutely. This isn't regular season college. Lots of public money supporting some of these lines.
Case in point, SA vs. OKC. The public loves OKC because of their star power and flashy play. SA is at least 3.5 points better on a neutral court, which if you do a generic simulation for this series as HHVVHVH they win the series at least 79% of the time. Did you know that in the last 26 SA games with Parker and Ginobili playing they are 25-1 SU (0.962) and 21-3-2 ATS (88%). Adjusting for strength of schedule during this stretch they are a net positive 14.7ppg. I don't want to get into a back and forth debate, I'm just giving my opinion. That's all I'm here to do. If you believe there are no weak lines at this point then obviously your best move is not to place any wagers.
Good luck,
NBA Guru
By the way lumpy , I'm not necessarily saying public money creates all the value in the NBA playoffs, it's just one minor contributor. The point I'm getting at is that I do believe value can be found in lines this late in the season. I wouldn't be making plays if I didn't think there was value.
I remember you fielding and answering this question before,
I have been searching the threads, but can't find a satisfactory answer. It's about your propensity to bet the 1H (or Full game) and 2H totals the same way. Case in point: Yesterday you picked the MIA/IND game to go 'under 182', but when it looked like the game was going to end up 'over' at halftime, you bet the 2nd Half 'under 91' again.
As has been noted by fellow members you have (succesfully) done this many times with your picks this year. What are the numbers that support this betting decision?
I remember you fielding and answering this question before,
I have been searching the threads, but can't find a satisfactory answer. It's about your propensity to bet the 1H (or Full game) and 2H totals the same way. Case in point: Yesterday you picked the MIA/IND game to go 'under 182', but when it looked like the game was going to end up 'over' at halftime, you bet the 2nd Half 'under 91' again.
As has been noted by fellow members you have (succesfully) done this many times with your picks this year. What are the numbers that support this betting decision?
Obi - I don't have that split available right now. I may dice the plays up in the off season this summer to analyze each subset like that. If I do that this I will definitely share it with the board.
Comments
If anyone doesn't think the refs have absolute complete control over the pace and scoring of a game I would submit this as Exhibit A. Still may go under but these guys are going to wear out the ball in the whistles. And of course they are shooting the FT's at about a 90% clip.
You forgot make, make, make, make. 67 of 70. Wow!
This late in the game you expect to see weak lines?
Get real.
While I agree it sucked to lose when we had 12 points to give with 3 minutes left....It was a miracle to even have a chance to win it in the first place.
This point could have been made without the attitude and "Get real" comment.
Aw shucks, losing that 76's team total UNDER 84 was an awful tough beat the other night. I know they had 50 at halftime but golly gee whitakers we all knew that they would die in the 2H. It was plain ole rotten crummy luck that with 3 minutes left we had 12 points to give and still lost.
Better?
No, but you already knew that. I have better things to do. If you don't know how and/or refuse to make a point without being childish and inflammatory, please go back into hiding. Thanks.
Absolutely. This isn't regular season college. Lots of public money supporting some of these lines.
Case in point, SA vs. OKC. The public loves OKC because of their star power and flashy play. SA is at least 3.5 points better on a neutral court, which if you do a generic simulation for this series as HHVVHVH they win the series at least 79% of the time. Did you know that in the last 26 SA games with Parker and Ginobili playing they are 25-1 SU (0.962) and 21-3-2 ATS (88%). Adjusting for strength of schedule during this stretch they are a net positive 14.7ppg. I don't want to get into a back and forth debate, I'm just giving my opinion. That's all I'm here to do. If you believe there are no weak lines at this point then obviously your best move is not to place any wagers.
Good luck,
NBA Guru
Ahh, everyone's friend Burger is back. We missed you.
By the way lumpy , I'm not necessarily saying public money creates all the value in the NBA playoffs, it's just one minor contributor. The point I'm getting at is that I do believe value can be found in lines this late in the season. I wouldn't be making plays if I didn't think there was value.
I remember you fielding and answering this question before,
I have been searching the threads, but can't find a satisfactory answer. It's about your propensity to bet the 1H (or Full game) and 2H totals the same way. Case in point: Yesterday you picked the MIA/IND game to go 'under 182', but when it looked like the game was going to end up 'over' at halftime, you bet the 2nd Half 'under 91' again.
As has been noted by fellow members you have (succesfully) done this many times with your picks this year. What are the numbers that support this betting decision?
Obi - I don't have that split available right now. I may dice the plays up in the off season this summer to analyze each subset like that. If I do that this I will definitely share it with the board.
Thanks
Just a fyi, but teams that are down 2-0 after 2 games in a series are 5-1 ATS-1st-HALF so far in these playoffs.
Lone loss came in the OKC-DAL series.