First Stoffo play of 2012
BuckyBadger
Senior Member
There are 3 games on Sat where both oitchers have at least 3 starts. 2 of those games (Phil/SD and Min/TB) do not qualify as either a side or total play, but the third #929 Bal (Arrieta) @ LAA(Weaver) qualifies as an under. Currently under 7.5 -116 (Pinny) for the first official Stoffo play of the season
Comments
SF/Cin u 8.5 -109
Wash/LAD u6 -113
TB/TX u9 -111
You could actually use the Arizona/Miami game also Close enough
I show the same two Stoffo unders as Rhino does. Detwiler's NPERA rating of B20, 2.23 puts him under today's NL cut-off of 2.49, with Kershaw's NPERA of 2.24, it makes the game an under play. As far as Arz/Mia under. Although very close, it doesn't qualify by Stoffo parameters. As a matter of fact, some one truly playing the entire Stoffo system would have Arz as a side play, and again using the Stoffo parameters, a single game never qualifies as both a side play AND an under play
I thought that only the A list was used. That's why we need you Bucky. Thanks for the reply really appreciate it. But I do understand about the cut off number on the B list
TB/TX u9 +107
CHW/Det u7.5 -113
I don't think Smyly has enough innings to qualify, Bucky if your looking can you confirm also I believe if I'm understanding the B list the Pitt/Cincy Under 7 +117 is a play
I have the same 2 under plays for today that Rhino listed. Pit/Cin under is not a play because Cueto's 2012 NPERA rating is, A25 3.08 which is above today's NL cut-off of 2.76. Regarding Smyly, Stoffo has no "number of innings" requirement, but instead uses the "must have at least 3 starts" requirement. And I believe there are at least 2 other AL pitchers starting today that meet the Stoffo parameters, that have fewer innings pitched than Smyly, ie---Gomez (Clv) and Ross (Oak). Anyway, hope that helps.
So today it looks like Cleveland/Texas, White sox/ Detroit, Oakland/ T.Bay.
StL/AZ u8.5 +111
SF/LAD u6.5 +110
I've been checking daily and posting the plays. I have not been tracking the results. I could use some help with that. Anyone?
Since the bets are mixed in with my other baseball bets, I can't tell you the record for this season. But I'm pretty sure it has been terrible. The results for previous seasons were quite good. You can find them in one of the other stoffo threads started early this season. Use the search tool on the forum main page at the top right.
I too have wondered about early season vs late season. The early season pitcher rankings suffer from being very small sample sizes. But the late season rankings may suffer from including old games--early season games--that may not reflect a pitcher's current form. If anyone has the data, it would probably be Bucky. Are you out there Bucky?
StL/AZ u9.5 100
CHW/Cle u7.5 -125
Det/Sea u7.5 -120
As far as this year goes. The Stoffo unders are 4-7, -3.7 units. The Stoffo sides are 26-28, +3.8 units
SF/AZ u8 +104
Det/Oak u6.5 -105
LAA/TX u8.5 -107
Chi/StL u7.5 -103
TB/Tor u8 -121
NYY/Bal u8.5 -107.
Is anyone still betting these? I've cut back to a small fraction of a unit. They really are doing poorly.
I agree with Mastermind playing selectively. Last one I played was the Verlander game at Oakland I wasn't betting any Texas Under I didn't care who was pitching. I'm also going to pass on tonight's CC/Chen match-up Yankees playing good baseball and they're scoring and Balt can flat out hit
Some of the numbers I see say Under but I would have to see a 9 -110 before I pull the trigger. Rhino Thanks and of course if you have the time keep posting them.