Paid03 NBA 3/26 to 4/1 YTD 35-14-1 (70%)
paid03
Senior Member
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a teams road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Indiana Pacers +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Heat are still the publics darling, so every time the odds makers can get the Heat to lose ATS they win money. Every Heat line will be auto-inflated for the remainder of the year. Vegas would love to push the Heats cover rate down to where the Lakers is right now (44%), and rob the public like bandits.
It definitely helps the Pacers that they have 2 PGs that are better than either Heat PG. The Pacers also have a lot of big men that will give the Heats soft interior fits.
Referee assignments:
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bucks are another counter-intuitive team that plays better on the road. The Knicks used to be much the same, but have gotten better at home recently. However, the Knicks are still about the same at home as they are on the road, so we are gaining a virtual double-edge from the universal home court adjustment.
I think everyone now realizes that Monta Ellis isnt nearly as good as he seemed in Golden State, however, he does fill the role as a situational scorer that the Bucks have needed all season. Many of us have seen their blunderous 4th quarters and failures to seal the deal late in the game this season. I think the Bucks are a far better team than the Knicks, at this point in the season.
Now, for the most exciting part of this match-up.. Tony ROAD COVERS Brothers will be calling this game, and he even has a little extra help, with another road favoring ref in Courtney Kirkland. Nothing is more obnoxious Knicks fans in MSG, so these refs will not be looking to hand many favorable calls to this Knicks team, especially after the crowd heckles then in the first quarter.
Referee assignments:
The Knicks have 2 of the most road favoring refs in the league working against them tonight, a Knicks cover would truly surprise me.
Denver Nuggets +8
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bulls are still covering 60% of spreads and have odds makers in auto-inflate mode on Bulls lines. The Nuggets are a full 6 points better on the road, according to my rankings and the Bulls are also better on the road, so we gain another universal home court adjustment double-edge.
Both of these teams are banged-up, the Bulls are finally starting to feel the effects of Roses absence. This Nuggets team is without Nene, as they had been at times before he was traded. However, they have Kenneth Manimal Faried to hold things down in the paint and are very much the same team that has shocked several big time NBA contenders this season. By the way, Farieds Roland rating is higher than Nenes ever was, at +4.8 he doubles Nenes +2.5 while he was with the Nuggets. The Nuggets are just fine down low. Faried is a forward, but holds the paint down like a center.
Referee assignments:
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a teams road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Indiana Pacers +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Heat are still the publics darling, so every time the odds makers can get the Heat to lose ATS they win money. Every Heat line will be auto-inflated for the remainder of the year. Vegas would love to push the Heats cover rate down to where the Lakers is right now (44%), and rob the public like bandits.
It definitely helps the Pacers that they have 2 PGs that are better than either Heat PG. The Pacers also have a lot of big men that will give the Heats soft interior fits.
Referee assignments:
- Ed Malloy: 21-15-2 home team ATS record
- Haywoode Workman: 13-18-1 home team ATS record
- Gary Zielinski: 16-23 home team ATS record
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bucks are another counter-intuitive team that plays better on the road. The Knicks used to be much the same, but have gotten better at home recently. However, the Knicks are still about the same at home as they are on the road, so we are gaining a virtual double-edge from the universal home court adjustment.
I think everyone now realizes that Monta Ellis isnt nearly as good as he seemed in Golden State, however, he does fill the role as a situational scorer that the Bucks have needed all season. Many of us have seen their blunderous 4th quarters and failures to seal the deal late in the game this season. I think the Bucks are a far better team than the Knicks, at this point in the season.
Now, for the most exciting part of this match-up.. Tony ROAD COVERS Brothers will be calling this game, and he even has a little extra help, with another road favoring ref in Courtney Kirkland. Nothing is more obnoxious Knicks fans in MSG, so these refs will not be looking to hand many favorable calls to this Knicks team, especially after the crowd heckles then in the first quarter.
Referee assignments:
- Tony Road Covers Brothers: 15-24 home team ATS record
- Courtney Kirkland: 14-22 home team ATS record
- Marat Kogut: 19-12-1 home team ATS record
The Knicks have 2 of the most road favoring refs in the league working against them tonight, a Knicks cover would truly surprise me.
Denver Nuggets +8
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bulls are still covering 60% of spreads and have odds makers in auto-inflate mode on Bulls lines. The Nuggets are a full 6 points better on the road, according to my rankings and the Bulls are also better on the road, so we gain another universal home court adjustment double-edge.
Both of these teams are banged-up, the Bulls are finally starting to feel the effects of Roses absence. This Nuggets team is without Nene, as they had been at times before he was traded. However, they have Kenneth Manimal Faried to hold things down in the paint and are very much the same team that has shocked several big time NBA contenders this season. By the way, Farieds Roland rating is higher than Nenes ever was, at +4.8 he doubles Nenes +2.5 while he was with the Nuggets. The Nuggets are just fine down low. Faried is a forward, but holds the paint down like a center.
Referee assignments:
- Bill Kennedy: 17-19 home team ATS record
- JT Orr: 16-17-1 home team ATS record
- Leon Wood: 19-19 home team ATS record
Comments
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a teams road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Cleveland Cavaliers +9
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Referee assignments:
Tony Brothers: 16-24 home team ATS record
Rodney Mott: 25-13 home team ATS record
James Williams: 16-18 home team ATS record
Portland Trail Blazers +5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Referee assignments:
HUGE home referee advantage for the Blazers.
Write-ups to follow.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a teams road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Cleveland Cavaliers +9
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
You should know by now that I rate Cavs better on the road than at home, so we are picking up an edge for the universal home court adjustment. Philly plays about the same weather they are at home or on the road.
Andre Iguodala is likely to miss tonights game. He is the Sixers co-MVP, with a Roland rating of +5.9. Everybody saw how bad the Sixers can be without Iguodala, when they got trampled by the Duncan-less, Splitter-less Spurs.
The Cavs are an extremely talented young team and the Sessions trade opened-up more minutes for rookie phenom, Kyrie Irving. I also would not sleep on Luke Walton helping this team in a limited role, he had a very good Roland rating of +3.9 with the Lakers this year. Walton is a more capable player than many thing, but that is not really a factor in this game.
Brothers wasnt able to skew the Bucks game enough to get a road cover last night. I consider him more likely to get a road cover tonight, since he didnt last night.
Referee assignments:
Portland Trail Blazers +5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Thunder are another public darling, like the Heat. They are sitting at a 54% cover rate on the year, odds makers do not want any public favorite to be above 52.4% and, ideally, they want them below 50%. Thunder lines are on auto-inflate.
Ive fielded questions about Feltons absence. Felton is an overrated player who has a (-0.3) Roland rating. He will be replaced by Crawford in the starting line-up (+0.7 Roland rating) and everything will be fine, or better than fine.
The Rose Garden is a tough place to play and, despite recent performances, the Blazers are capable of beating any team in this league. 5 points is way too much chalk for OKC to lay in Portland.
Referee assignments:
HUGE home referee advantage for the Blazers.
Great run, but any chance explaining that statement ,as I see it ,it's night a day.
luck going forward
Yeah, well you don't keep detailed SOS weighted home/away power rankings like I do. Glad you could squeeze a comment in after a 0-2 night. I know your window was very narrow for the rest of the month, seeing as I was hitting 70% in the month of March before last night.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a teams road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
New Orleans Hornets +2.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Hornets are my most counter-intuitive team, they are 10 full rating points better on the road. The Warriors are the same defenseless team both home and away. However, with the recent direction of their organization, their home crowd has began meeting their Warriors team with contempt. Most recently when the crowd booed one of Golden States owners off the court while he was presenting the retirement of Chris Mullens jersey.
There is speculation that Golden State is hanging them up for the year, and they accrued too many early wins so now they have to under perform for ping pong balls. The Hornets are already guaranteed ping pong balls, so they are playing to improve. This is just a bonus aspect of this match-up, I did now factor it quantitatively.
The biggest match-up issue in this game is that the Warriors will start their third string PG, Charles Jenkins, who has an absolutely horrid Roland rating of -17.9. The Hornets, on the other hand, have 2 capable PGs. I would start Greivis Vasquez if I were them but, sadly, a lot of NBA coaches arent as statistically informed as I am. Also, I didnt include it quantitatively, but Carl Landrys return to the Hornets is significant.
Dont worry that Ariza is out, his Roland rating is barely positive (+0.3), he is negligible. Same with Kaman, except Kamans Roldan rating is -3.0, he is a liability.
I could see a large victory for the Hornets, you may want to split your bet with some Hornets ML.
Referee Assignments:
I would have answered it straight with most people, jets96 has been an antagonist since I got here though.
Plus he asked it after the play lost, in retrospect. He wasn't asking it to be constructive.
You will regress at some point, but keep up the good work.
Yes, but that is not a deal-breaker. I don't even include ref assignments in the quantitative part of my analysis. Ref assignments are only a bonus; or deal breaker, on borderline plays.
How do you know he will regress? This is a very negative comment, not to mention, unsupported? You'd do this post a great service by continuing to not look at Paid's selections.
It's realistic. No one on earth will hit anywhere near 70% in a big market like NBA sides over a large sample size going forward.
No, the comment was probably unnecessary, but neither was paid's flippant response when jets96 asked him about his opinion of the Sixers home/road split. The majority of forum posters need to have thicker skin and stop getting so defensive IMO. I've watched this happen for over a decade now on various forums. Heaven forbid someone question anything about a poster others want to follow, all the followers come rushing to his defense for fear that he might stop posting.
Also, as far as what we try to promote here, a poster's record has very little to do with it. You seem to be suggesting it's somehow more acceptable to needle someone with a losing record than someone with a winning record. As I touched on above, we certainly don't promote walking on eggshells around a poster because others may want to follow him. There are always rare exceptions, but all posters are held to the same standards for the most part.
Golden State Warriors 2H -5.5
Stake: 1.1 to win 1 unit
That's exactly why I wanted to keep posting a separate thread for each day..
You want to participate in a forum that's all happy and smiley? I'd rather participate in a forum that does ask questions. As long as it's not harassment I don't see what the big deal is in questioning someone posting their picks.
This is more or less my take on the matter.
As I mentioned earlier, the followers always come in and get super defensive for fear that the the poster they follow will run away... not surprisingly, that's exactly what has happened here. If a poster does not want to be questioned in a reasonable, civil manner, he should not be posting picks on a forum, he should start his own site/blog or use twitter to post plays.
BT is not meant to be a site where posters post picks and the only acceptable responses are "great job" or "thanks!" This is a forum where civil discussion and questions are welcome.
On a more personal note to golfguru, I've mentioned many times that I make my living from sports betting, and a large majority of what I bet comes from posters and services, so to insinuate that I'd run someone off out of jealousy is ludicrous. I'd love to find as many cappers as possible that I believe will share +EV picks going forward. That said, I'm not going to walk on eggshells around them. You may fail to see the value in some of the questions/comments, but that doesn't mean it's not there.
Was not implying my post toward you or anyone else specifically, just making a post on my thoughts, that is acceptable here I assume, I just prefer the positive kind, not negatively sarcastic like a few in this posts and others. I agree with the questions part of the situation but not in the negative tone they are usually worded. Thanks, sorry to have stirred up this problem, I will go away. Good luck to all.