Arizona Diamondbacks 84.5
Atlanta Braves 86.5
Baltimore Orioles 70.5
Boston Red Sox 87.5
Chicago Cubs 73.5
Chicago White Sox 76.5
Cincinnati Reds 86.5 (-120o)
Cleveland Indians 75.5
Colorado Rockies 82.5
Detroit Tigers 94.5
Houston Astros 62.5
Kansas City Royals 78.5
Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 81.5
Miami Marlins 82.5
Milwaukee Brewers 82.5
Minnesota Twins 74.5 (-120u)
New York Mets 74.5 (-120u)
New York Yankees 93.5 (-120u)
Oakland Athletics 72.5
Philadelphia Phillies 95.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 73.5 (-120u)
San Diego Padres 70.5
San Francisco Giants 87.5
Seattle Mariners 72.5
St. Louis Cardinals 87.5 (-120u)
Tampa Bay Rays 87.5
Texas Rangers 94.5
Toronto Blue Jays 81
Washington Nationals 80.5
Verlander, Fister, Peralta, Avila, Valverde all had career years that were largely luck based and won't be duplicated.
Everyone is jizzing themselves about Prince, but he's really just a slight upgrade from Martinez. And when you factor in the Cabrera is now playing 3rd, I'm really not sure they are better off at all than they were before the Martinez injury. They still don't have a leadoff hitter and their defense is awful.
They shouldn't have any problem winning the division because it's awful, but 95+ is asking a lot.
Verlander, Fister, Peralta, Avila, Valverde all had career years that were largely luck based and won't be duplicated.
Everyone is jizzing themselves about Prince, but he's really just a slight upgrade from Martinez. And when you factor in the Cabrera is now playing 3rd, I'm really not sure they are better off at all than they were before the Martinez injury. They still don't have a leadoff hitter and their defense is awful.
They shouldn't have any problem winning the division because it's awful, but 95+ is asking a lot.
All good points. I am just starting to break down the AL central and the only thing I think you may be underestimating is this division could be really bad. I am only done with the Twins and Royals. So far I am not impressed though. The Twins need a lot of things to go right to be competitive. The Royals starting pitching is a mess although I love their bullpen. I will report back tommorrow when I finish with the Indians White Sox and Tigers.
Verlander, Fister, Peralta, Avila, Valverde all had career years that were largely luck based and won't be duplicated.
Everyone is jizzing themselves about Prince, but he's really just a slight upgrade from Martinez. And when you factor in the Cabrera is now playing 3rd, I'm really not sure they are better off at all than they were before the Martinez injury. They still don't have a leadoff hitter and their defense is awful.
They shouldn't have any problem winning the division because it's awful, but 95+ is asking a lot.
You make a lot of sense in everything your saying but I disagree with the Verlander Statement he's the real deal and of course barring injury he'll once again compete for the Cy Young. I also don't think Cabrera will have a problem going back to third as long as he's not feeling insulted by the Tigers moving him because in my opinion if not the Best ball player in the top 3 for sure. I just wouldn't upset my guy if that was my team. But your right 95 wins is an over-reaction an Under is the play right now. Peralta, will revert back to form for sure.
Like Tigers Under as well, but Verlander gets 20 wins this season... Real deal
Wins are the least predictable stat there is. That said, he's only had 20 once.
Of course he's the real deal, but the prices on him this year are going to be ridiculous, and he just had too much luck go his way last year to have it happen again.
.236 BAPIP, compared to a career .285
80.3% strand rate, compared to a career 73.3%
He actually had a worse FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) than he did the previous 2 years, and yet his ERA was a full point lower last year.
It just can't happen again. Last year was the magical, everything comes together, once in a career type season for him. He's still a dominant pitcher with elite stuff, and will certainly be extremely successful. But it won't touch last year's 2.4 ERA, .92 WHIP, and 24-5 record. And betting wise, given his 2011 and the Prince Fielder noise, I seriously doubt there will be much value in playing JV game in and game out like there was last year.
Wins are the least predictable stat there is. That said, he's only had 20 once.
Of course he's the real deal, but the prices on him this year are going to be ridiculous, and he just had too much luck go his way last year to have it happen again.
.236 BAPIP, compared to a career .285
80.3% strand rate, compared to a career 73.3%
He actually had a worse FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) than he did the previous 2 years, and yet his ERA was a full point lower last year.
It just can't happen again. Last year was the magical, everything comes together, once in a career type season for him. He's still a dominant pitcher with elite stuff, and will certainly be extremely successful. But it won't touch last year's 2.4 ERA, .92 WHIP, and 24-5 record. And betting wise, given his 2011 and the Prince Fielder noise, I seriously doubt there will be much value in playing JV game in and game out like there was last year.
Interested in what number they put up for Wins on Verlander 17.5? You do have me thinking Under. I played the Tigers 18/1 to win it all I do every year because my wife's from there so I buy her and my father in law a Tiger ticket every year. I could just see me sitting on the couch rooting against her guy Verlander. It's going to be an interested year always is at my house when the Yanks play the Tigers.
All good points. I am just starting to break down the AL central and the only thing I think you may be underestimating is this division could be really bad. I am only done with the Twins and Royals. So far I am not impressed though. The Twins need a lot of things to go right to be competitive. The Royals starting pitching is a mess although I love their bullpen. I will report back tommorrow when I finish with the Indians White Sox and Tigers.
The words "competitive" and "Twins" can not be used in the same sentence for the upcoming season. Capps captains the worst bullpen in the majors. Marquis will be the number three starter. Yikes. There is no talk on the return of Morneau. Mauer is too busy doing shampoo commercials when he should be the spokesperson for Vagasil. Zero power threats on this team. 99 loses, or more, is a reasonable assumption for this "smoke and mirrors" team in 2012. Not even the great Terry Ryan can turn this team around...at least not this year.
The words "competitive" and "Twins" can not be used in the same sentence for the upcoming season. Capps captains the worst bullpen in the majors. Marquis will be the number three starter. Yikes. There is no talk on the return of Morneau. Mauer is too busy doing shampoo commercials when he should be the spokesperson for Vagasil. Zero power threats on this team. 99 loses, or more, is a reasonable assumption for this "smoke and mirrors" team in 2012. Not even the great Terry Ryan can turn this team around...at least not this year.
I think that every year about them, luckily learned my lesson early. Was a fan, until they dumped players going into the playoffs one year.
The words "competitive" and "Twins" can not be used in the same sentence for the upcoming season. Capps captains the worst bullpen in the majors. Marquis will be the number three starter. Yikes. There is no talk on the return of Morneau. Mauer is too busy doing shampoo commercials when he should be the spokesperson for Vagasil. Zero power threats on this team. 99 loses, or more, is a reasonable assumption for this "smoke and mirrors" team in 2012. Not even the great Terry Ryan can turn this team around...at least not this year.
I'm about the biggest Twins fan in the world. While I said they would need a lot of things to go right, I did not say that the talent was not there.
1. The bullpen that you say is the worst in the majors definitly has a lot of potential. While we are going to lack depth, if Zumaya is healthy the backend with Perkins Duensing and Capps has the potential to be very good.
2. Willingham is a power threat. More so then Cuddyer or Kubel.
3. Marquis is at least the #4 starter if not #5.
The thing that worries me the most about the Twins is the injuries and the lack of depth behind the brittle ones. And I am not even talking about Mauer who is not even a concern for me. From top to bottom there is concern. Span is coming off 2 terrible years and the concussions are scary. Morneau is obviously a huge question mark. Willingham and Doumit both have a long history of injuries. Caroll is 38 and never been the guy to get 450+ AB. Bakers elbow is something that has not been talked about much but I have a bad feeling.
There is about 10 things that need to not go wrong for the Twins to be competitive and I think at least 5 of them are destined to go wrong. They might have as wide of a range as any team in baseball as far as wins. If everything goes well they could win 85-90 games. And if Morneau never regains form, Baker has TJ and Willingham and Doumit have ice packs on all year I could see them being the worst team in the AL again. I think the current win total of 74ish is spot on.
I'm about the biggest Twins fan in the world. While I said they would need a lot of things to go right, I did not say that the talent was not there.
1. The bullpen that you say is the worst in the majors definitly has a lot of potential. While we are going to lack depth, if Zumaya is healthy the backend with Perkins Duensing and Capps has the potential to be very good.
2. Willingham is a power threat. More so then Cuddyer or Kubel.
3. Marquis is at least the #4 starter if not #5.
The thing that worries me the most about the Twins is the injuries and the lack of depth behind the brittle ones. And I am not even talking about Mauer who is not even a concern for me. From top to bottom there is concern. Span is coming off 2 terrible years and the concussions are scary. Morneau is obviously a huge question mark. Willingham and Doumit both have a long history of injuries. Caroll is 38 and never been the guy to get 450+ AB. Bakers elbow is something that has not been talked about much but I have a bad feeling.
There is about 10 things that need to not go wrong for the Twins to be competitive and I think at least 5 of them are destined to go wrong. They might have as wide of a range as any team in baseball as far as wins. If everything goes well they could win 85-90 games. And if Morneau never regains form, Baker has TJ and Willingham and Doumit have ice packs on all year I could see them being the worst team in the AL again. I think the current win total of 74ish is spot on.
First off, I meant no disrespect. I've lived in MN all my life and have been a seaon ticket holder for the past 5 years.
1. The bullpen is weak. "If" Zumaya is healthy. That's a big if. Perkins is strong and should be the closer. He's grown up since his days a Gopher. Capps is the not same pitcher he was when he was in Washington. He sucks and the fans know it.
2. Willingham showed signs of power but his .262 BA is a killer. Opposing pitcher will pitch around him and take their chances.
3. Marquis SHOULD be a #4 or #5 starter but on this pitching staff he'll end up being the #3 or at worst, the #4. Pavano is our "ace". Liriano will be our #2. That leaves Scott Baker "The Bomb Maker", Old man Marquis, and Blackburn. Balcky will end up as the #5. Baker had a nice season until August and then the wheels fell off.
The injuries and lack of depth are a huge concern. Gardy needs to regain control of his clubhouse. Too many players were "injured" and just wanted to sit on the bench instead of playing through the pain. All except Cuddy and he's gone. Who's going to lead the clubhouse now? Mauer? He's afraid of the press and just keeps to himself. Morneau? Maybe but it help if he actually played instead of cheered from the bench.
Liriano is a wild card. The guy can pitch but the defense behind him scares him and changes the ways he pitches.
The 2012 roster will look like many of the AAA rosters of their opponents and the standings will reflect that. Zero chance they win 74 games.
LVH offers -110 on its totals and is taking maximum bets of $1,000.
MLB season win totals from LVH SuperBook
Arizona Diamondbacks: 86
Atlanta Braves: 87.5, moved to 87
Baltimore Orioles: 69.5
Boston Red Sox: 89.5
Chicago Cubs: 74.5
Chicago White Sox: 74
Cincinnati Reds: 86.5
Cleveland Indians: 86.5
Colorado Rockies: 82, moved to 81
Detroit Tigers: 92.5
Florida Marlins: 84.5
Houston Astros: 64.5, moved to 64
Kansas City Royals 80.5
Los Angeles Angels: 92.5
Los Angeles Dodgers: 81
Milwaukee Brewers: 83.5
Minnesota Twins: 75, moved to 73
New York Mets: 70.5
New York Yankees: 93.5
Oakland As: 71
Philadelphia Phillies: 92.5, moved to 93
Pittsburgh Pirates: 73
San Diego Padres: 73.5
San Francisco Giants: 87.5
Seattle Mariners: 72
St. Louis Cardinals: 82.5, moved to 83
Tampa Bay Rays: 87
Texas Rangers: 91.5
Toronto Blue Jays: 80
Washington Nationals: 82.5, moved to 84.5
One thing I learned today in my breakdown of the AL central was that the Indians match up really well with the Tigers.
1. One thing the Indians are really going to struggle with is hitting LHP. They project to start 7 leftys in there everyday lineup. Duncan Donald and Spilborghs are going to play a lot vs LHP but all of them are a downgrade. But against RHP those same 7 guys will have an advantage. Detroit has 5 RHP in their rotation.
2. Detroits lineup is very righthanded. All 5 of clevelands starters are RH. Only Fielder Avila and Boesch project to be everyday players who hit LH. Masterson is death on rightys. D Lowe is much much better against RH hitters. Ubaldo actualy is better against LH hitters. Carmona when right is much better against rightys.
Out at betonline ($250 limits) and sportsbook ($500 limits).
Starting out with these and thinking about some others.
Atlanta u87 -115 (Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox o87.5 -130 (Betonline)
Chicago White Sox o74 -115 (Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals u80.5 -115 (Sportsbook)
Milwaukee o81.5 -122 (Betonline)
New York Mets u74.5 +102 (BetOnline)
San Diego o70.5 -102 (Betonline)
St. Louis o83 -115 (Sportsbook)
Texas o91.5 -115 (Sportsbook)
These look good to me:
Nationals UNDER 84.5
Orioles UNDER 69.5
Astros UNDER 64
Yankees UNDER 93.5
Red Sox UNDER 89.5
Marlins OVER 84.5
Tigers UNDER 92.5
Tribe - not disagreeing with the Tigers under, but you think Verlander and Fister's seasons were lucky?
There was a lot of luck involved in them, yes. I explained Verlander's already in an earlier post. You could basically write the same post for Fister after joining the Tigers. People here in Detroit think that he's the guy they saw last year. Well, that guy posted an 8-1 record, and a 1.79 ERA/.84 WHIP. That's not what he is.
Both guys were fortunate as far as average on balls put in play, strand rates, etc. Both will see regression.
worm33
Senior Member
Comments
Arizona Diamondbacks 84.5
Atlanta Braves 86.5
Baltimore Orioles 70.5
Boston Red Sox 87.5
Chicago Cubs 73.5
Chicago White Sox 76.5
Cincinnati Reds 86.5 (-120o)
Cleveland Indians 75.5
Colorado Rockies 82.5
Detroit Tigers 94.5
Houston Astros 62.5
Kansas City Royals 78.5
Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 81.5
Miami Marlins 82.5
Milwaukee Brewers 82.5
Minnesota Twins 74.5 (-120u)
New York Mets 74.5 (-120u)
New York Yankees 93.5 (-120u)
Oakland Athletics 72.5
Philadelphia Phillies 95.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 73.5 (-120u)
San Diego Padres 70.5
San Francisco Giants 87.5
Seattle Mariners 72.5
St. Louis Cardinals 87.5 (-120u)
Tampa Bay Rays 87.5
Texas Rangers 94.5
Toronto Blue Jays 81
Washington Nationals 80.5
Verlander, Fister, Peralta, Avila, Valverde all had career years that were largely luck based and won't be duplicated.
Everyone is jizzing themselves about Prince, but he's really just a slight upgrade from Martinez. And when you factor in the Cabrera is now playing 3rd, I'm really not sure they are better off at all than they were before the Martinez injury. They still don't have a leadoff hitter and their defense is awful.
They shouldn't have any problem winning the division because it's awful, but 95+ is asking a lot.
All good points. I am just starting to break down the AL central and the only thing I think you may be underestimating is this division could be really bad. I am only done with the Twins and Royals. So far I am not impressed though. The Twins need a lot of things to go right to be competitive. The Royals starting pitching is a mess although I love their bullpen. I will report back tommorrow when I finish with the Indians White Sox and Tigers.
bookmaker posted on Feb 18 last year, expecting them anyday
Bet Mets u74.5 -105 so far at BOL
You make a lot of sense in everything your saying but I disagree with the Verlander Statement he's the real deal and of course barring injury he'll once again compete for the Cy Young. I also don't think Cabrera will have a problem going back to third as long as he's not feeling insulted by the Tigers moving him because in my opinion if not the Best ball player in the top 3 for sure. I just wouldn't upset my guy if that was my team. But your right 95 wins is an over-reaction an Under is the play right now. Peralta, will revert back to form for sure.
Wins are the least predictable stat there is. That said, he's only had 20 once.
Of course he's the real deal, but the prices on him this year are going to be ridiculous, and he just had too much luck go his way last year to have it happen again.
.236 BAPIP, compared to a career .285
80.3% strand rate, compared to a career 73.3%
He actually had a worse FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) than he did the previous 2 years, and yet his ERA was a full point lower last year.
It just can't happen again. Last year was the magical, everything comes together, once in a career type season for him. He's still a dominant pitcher with elite stuff, and will certainly be extremely successful. But it won't touch last year's 2.4 ERA, .92 WHIP, and 24-5 record. And betting wise, given his 2011 and the Prince Fielder noise, I seriously doubt there will be much value in playing JV game in and game out like there was last year.
Interested in what number they put up for Wins on Verlander 17.5? You do have me thinking Under. I played the Tigers 18/1 to win it all I do every year because my wife's from there so I buy her and my father in law a Tiger ticket every year. I could just see me sitting on the couch rooting against her guy Verlander. It's going to be an interested year always is at my house when the Yanks play the Tigers.
The words "competitive" and "Twins" can not be used in the same sentence for the upcoming season. Capps captains the worst bullpen in the majors. Marquis will be the number three starter. Yikes. There is no talk on the return of Morneau. Mauer is too busy doing shampoo commercials when he should be the spokesperson for Vagasil. Zero power threats on this team. 99 loses, or more, is a reasonable assumption for this "smoke and mirrors" team in 2012. Not even the great Terry Ryan can turn this team around...at least not this year.
I think that every year about them, luckily learned my lesson early. Was a fan, until they dumped players going into the playoffs one year.
Astros Under 62.5 - maybe get 54 games.
Diamond Backs Under 84.5 no way they play anywhere close to 500 ball.
I'm about the biggest Twins fan in the world. While I said they would need a lot of things to go right, I did not say that the talent was not there.
1. The bullpen that you say is the worst in the majors definitly has a lot of potential. While we are going to lack depth, if Zumaya is healthy the backend with Perkins Duensing and Capps has the potential to be very good.
2. Willingham is a power threat. More so then Cuddyer or Kubel.
3. Marquis is at least the #4 starter if not #5.
The thing that worries me the most about the Twins is the injuries and the lack of depth behind the brittle ones. And I am not even talking about Mauer who is not even a concern for me. From top to bottom there is concern. Span is coming off 2 terrible years and the concussions are scary. Morneau is obviously a huge question mark. Willingham and Doumit both have a long history of injuries. Caroll is 38 and never been the guy to get 450+ AB. Bakers elbow is something that has not been talked about much but I have a bad feeling.
There is about 10 things that need to not go wrong for the Twins to be competitive and I think at least 5 of them are destined to go wrong. They might have as wide of a range as any team in baseball as far as wins. If everything goes well they could win 85-90 games. And if Morneau never regains form, Baker has TJ and Willingham and Doumit have ice packs on all year I could see them being the worst team in the AL again. I think the current win total of 74ish is spot on.
First off, I meant no disrespect. I've lived in MN all my life and have been a seaon ticket holder for the past 5 years.
1. The bullpen is weak. "If" Zumaya is healthy. That's a big if. Perkins is strong and should be the closer. He's grown up since his days a Gopher. Capps is the not same pitcher he was when he was in Washington. He sucks and the fans know it.
2. Willingham showed signs of power but his .262 BA is a killer. Opposing pitcher will pitch around him and take their chances.
3. Marquis SHOULD be a #4 or #5 starter but on this pitching staff he'll end up being the #3 or at worst, the #4. Pavano is our "ace". Liriano will be our #2. That leaves Scott Baker "The Bomb Maker", Old man Marquis, and Blackburn. Balcky will end up as the #5. Baker had a nice season until August and then the wheels fell off.
The injuries and lack of depth are a huge concern. Gardy needs to regain control of his clubhouse. Too many players were "injured" and just wanted to sit on the bench instead of playing through the pain. All except Cuddy and he's gone. Who's going to lead the clubhouse now? Mauer? He's afraid of the press and just keeps to himself. Morneau? Maybe but it help if he actually played instead of cheered from the bench.
Liriano is a wild card. The guy can pitch but the defense behind him scares him and changes the ways he pitches.
The 2012 roster will look like many of the AAA rosters of their opponents and the standings will reflect that. Zero chance they win 74 games.
LVH offers -110 on its totals and is taking maximum bets of $1,000.
MLB season win totals from LVH SuperBook
Arizona Diamondbacks: 86
Atlanta Braves: 87.5, moved to 87
Baltimore Orioles: 69.5
Boston Red Sox: 89.5
Chicago Cubs: 74.5
Chicago White Sox: 74
Cincinnati Reds: 86.5
Cleveland Indians: 86.5
Colorado Rockies: 82, moved to 81
Detroit Tigers: 92.5
Florida Marlins: 84.5
Houston Astros: 64.5, moved to 64
Kansas City Royals 80.5
Los Angeles Angels: 92.5
Los Angeles Dodgers: 81
Milwaukee Brewers: 83.5
Minnesota Twins: 75, moved to 73
New York Mets: 70.5
New York Yankees: 93.5
Oakland As: 71
Philadelphia Phillies: 92.5, moved to 93
Pittsburgh Pirates: 73
San Diego Padres: 73.5
San Francisco Giants: 87.5
Seattle Mariners: 72
St. Louis Cardinals: 82.5, moved to 83
Tampa Bay Rays: 87
Texas Rangers: 91.5
Toronto Blue Jays: 80
Washington Nationals: 82.5, moved to 84.5
1. One thing the Indians are really going to struggle with is hitting LHP. They project to start 7 leftys in there everyday lineup. Duncan Donald and Spilborghs are going to play a lot vs LHP but all of them are a downgrade. But against RHP those same 7 guys will have an advantage. Detroit has 5 RHP in their rotation.
2. Detroits lineup is very righthanded. All 5 of clevelands starters are RH. Only Fielder Avila and Boesch project to be everyday players who hit LH. Masterson is death on rightys. D Lowe is much much better against RH hitters. Ubaldo actualy is better against LH hitters. Carmona when right is much better against rightys.
Just some food for thought.
Starting out with these and thinking about some others.
Atlanta u87 -115 (Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox o87.5 -130 (Betonline)
Chicago White Sox o74 -115 (Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals u80.5 -115 (Sportsbook)
Milwaukee o81.5 -122 (Betonline)
New York Mets u74.5 +102 (BetOnline)
San Diego o70.5 -102 (Betonline)
St. Louis o83 -115 (Sportsbook)
Texas o91.5 -115 (Sportsbook)
Nationals UNDER 84.5
Orioles UNDER 69.5
Astros UNDER 64
Yankees UNDER 93.5
Red Sox UNDER 89.5
Marlins OVER 84.5
Tigers UNDER 92.5
There was a lot of luck involved in them, yes. I explained Verlander's already in an earlier post. You could basically write the same post for Fister after joining the Tigers. People here in Detroit think that he's the guy they saw last year. Well, that guy posted an 8-1 record, and a 1.79 ERA/.84 WHIP. That's not what he is.
Both guys were fortunate as far as average on balls put in play, strand rates, etc. Both will see regression.