Post Super Bowl record heading into the late night chase picks tonight.
Most of the recent losses have been by 10 or more points as well. Most totals never even having a chance to win.
The run is officially over. Thanks for the season NBAGuru, it was truly a great run early.
Don't give it all back.
Burger raises a delicate point. Is guru chasing? The average * per play is certainly up. And the frequent G/2H or 1H/2H plays are a new "action" strategy. So I think he has gotten off kilter. I'd love to see more of the calm picks that accumulated that great record.
Burger raises a delicate point. Is guru chasing? The average * per play is certainly up. And the frequent G/2H or 1H/2H plays are a new "action" strategy. So I think he has gotten off kilter. I'd love to see more of the calm picks that accumulated that great record.
IMO...
The "be ready for a 2H play" comments on games that haven't even started yet is a VERY bad sign.
There is absolutely no way to know that a game is going to have +EV on a 2H spread or total before the game has even started.
These kind of comments to me were a sign of amateurism and I immediately pulled up.
Just my 2c
Burger raises a delicate point. Is guru chasing? The average * per play is certainly up. And the frequent G/2H or 1H/2H plays are a new "action" strategy. So I think he has gotten off kilter. I'd love to see more of the calm picks that accumulated that great record.
What is a "calm pick" in your mind. Honestly, been betting for 30 years and never heard of that.
I think i know what he is talking about....and dont get me wrong..i appreciate all guru's work and success, but it seems like he is raising his units and chasing....as far as knowing u are gonna play the second half before the game starts.....how does he know that?? Does he have info how the team plays in the second half....etc...i guess u can relate a calm bet to not being on tilt at the poker table....when ur raising and playing reckless...that is just my opionon!!!
With the occasional exception, I just wanted to jump in and commend everyone for posting legitimate questions/concerns in a non-inflammatory manner. Absolutely nothing wrong with discussing such issues as long as it's done in the right way and I see that happening for the most part. Hopefully Guru responds, although he is of course not obligated to do so.
Healthy, intelligent, civil discussion of topics like this is something I believe helps set BT apart from other forums. Keep up the good work guys.
I'm not sure why everybody is so hung up on having 2nd half plays in mind before the 1st half is over. If you expect a team to lose their legs in the 2nd half or a team is trending towards poor 2nd halves, you are likely to have a 2nd half play. Sure, you need to evaluate the line and the way the 1st half played out before making the play, but you can clearly have your sights set on a 2nd half play even before the game starts.
As far as chasing, we'll see. He did say that units increase as the season goes on and with the shortened season we are on an accelerated pace, so maybe that's a contributing factor. Or maybe there have just been some good spots. Let's wait for the current rut to end and then evaluate things.
In my humble opinion, the "bet 10% more when we're cold and bet 10% less when we're hot" was the telling sign. I'm not sure if that's a constructive statement or not, but I'm just sharing that because it's what made me pull up.
Guru said from the beginning his units will increase as the season progresses. How can he be "chasing" when he's up nearly 30 (weighted) units?!? Chasing what? Keep up the outstanding work on here Guru. You can lose another 25 units between now and the end of the season and I'll still be thanking you for a profit I never would have had without your help.
I believe NBA Guru was +29 units last season and that's right where he's at this season. This is over several hundred plays and betting at the close. I'm pretty sure if I tried to cap the NBA on my own I'd be in a lot worse shape than what he's doing and I'd be trying to bet overnight lines which are much softer.
I think most people just don't understand variance.
In my humble opinion, the "bet 10% more when we're cold and bet 10% less when we're hot" was the telling sign. I'm not sure if that's a constructive statement or not, but I'm just sharing that because it's what made me pull up.
It's constructive IMO. I'll share my thoughts on that specific point... Yes, I agree that statement was clearly off-base from a mathematical/bet-sizing standpoint. That said, I see betting and handicapping as two different things. For example, I don't know how to handicap sh!t outside of a few tiny markets, but I'd like to believe I understand how to bet properly. Most successful handicappers will have learned the proper math behind bet-sizing and bankroll management along the way, but I do think it's possible for someone to be a successful handicapper while having some leaks in those betting areas. So while it does raise a red flag for me as well when someone demonstrates a flaw in their betting, I don't think it completely precludes them from possibly being a successful handicapper.
NOTE: Just to be clear, I was making a general point and not giving any opinion about Guru himself.
I believe NBA Guru was +29 units last season and that's right where he's at this season. This is over several hundred plays and betting at the close. I'm pretty sure if I tried to cap the NBA on my own I'd be in a lot worse shape than what he's doing and I'd be trying to bet overnight lines which are much softer.
I think most people just don't understand variance.
Agree that most people don't understand variance, especially recreational bettors. That said, there have been some valid points brought up regarding some comments Guru has made and the types of bets or patterns that seem to have emerged recently (which could also just be noise/variance rather than a pattern). I think most of the discussion here goes a little beyond "He was winning and now he's losing so he's lost his edge" though.
It could just be variance, but I believe there are specific points being made that are worth discussing. Just my two cents of course.
I posted this before the season started. I respect the fact he keeps a record win or lose. If you bet every one of his plays at one unit you lost money. I agree with weighting plays within reason also. It turned 442-405 into 29 units.
2010-2011 NBA Record
ALL SINGLE UNIT TOTAL: 442-405 (-2.5 units)
In his defense he did do much better on 2 and 3 star bets. His 5 star plays were also in the negative.
The fact remains that you can't "be ready for a 2H" play based on recent 2H performances or because you think a team with have fresh/tired legs. This is all built into a 2H line and not knowing how a game is going to play out in the 1H or knowing how the 2H line is going to be set before the game even starts makes the "be ready for a 2H" play statement very sketchy and "covers-like" for lack of a better term.
Also does the fact that when his totals of late have been brutal and when at halftime he is on pace to lose by 20+ points and he chase fires an extra 2-3 units on the 2H total that corresponded with his game total pick not seem very coincidental?
How can the majority of his 2H total plays be +EV and just happen to correspond with his game totals of the same teams (especially when they are on pace to lose by a large margin).
Comments
Enjoy the game.
Pretty sure we're losing this one. Need a 25-28 pt. qtr to have a chance.
-20.3 Units
Post Super Bowl record heading into the late night chase picks tonight.
Most of the recent losses have been by 10 or more points as well. Most totals never even having a chance to win.
The run is officially over. Thanks for the season NBAGuru, it was truly a great run early.
Don't give it all back.
Let's keep the comments constructive please. Thank you.
IMO...
The "be ready for a 2H play" comments on games that haven't even started yet is a VERY bad sign.
There is absolutely no way to know that a game is going to have +EV on a 2H spread or total before the game has even started.
These kind of comments to me were a sign of amateurism and I immediately pulled up.
Just my 2c
What is a "calm pick" in your mind. Honestly, been betting for 30 years and never heard of that.
Healthy, intelligent, civil discussion of topics like this is something I believe helps set BT apart from other forums. Keep up the good work guys.
As far as chasing, we'll see. He did say that units increase as the season goes on and with the shortened season we are on an accelerated pace, so maybe that's a contributing factor. Or maybe there have just been some good spots. Let's wait for the current rut to end and then evaluate things.
Sam
I think most people just don't understand variance.
It's constructive IMO. I'll share my thoughts on that specific point... Yes, I agree that statement was clearly off-base from a mathematical/bet-sizing standpoint. That said, I see betting and handicapping as two different things. For example, I don't know how to handicap sh!t outside of a few tiny markets, but I'd like to believe I understand how to bet properly. Most successful handicappers will have learned the proper math behind bet-sizing and bankroll management along the way, but I do think it's possible for someone to be a successful handicapper while having some leaks in those betting areas. So while it does raise a red flag for me as well when someone demonstrates a flaw in their betting, I don't think it completely precludes them from possibly being a successful handicapper.
NOTE: Just to be clear, I was making a general point and not giving any opinion about Guru himself.
Agree that most people don't understand variance, especially recreational bettors. That said, there have been some valid points brought up regarding some comments Guru has made and the types of bets or patterns that seem to have emerged recently (which could also just be noise/variance rather than a pattern). I think most of the discussion here goes a little beyond "He was winning and now he's losing so he's lost his edge" though.
It could just be variance, but I believe there are specific points being made that are worth discussing. Just my two cents of course.
2010-2011 NBA Record
ALL SINGLE UNIT TOTAL: 442-405 (-2.5 units)
In his defense he did do much better on 2 and 3 star bets. His 5 star plays were also in the negative.
Also does the fact that when his totals of late have been brutal and when at halftime he is on pace to lose by 20+ points and he chase fires an extra 2-3 units on the 2H total that corresponded with his game total pick not seem very coincidental?
How can the majority of his 2H total plays be +EV and just happen to correspond with his game totals of the same teams (especially when they are on pace to lose by a large margin).
This is a fatal tell of amateurism and chasing.