What does Weighted and Unweighted record mean?
moneymike
Senior Member
I have seen this in other poster's records, but don't know what it means. Thanks for any replies...
Comments
Example
bet 1 at 1 unit wins
bet 2 at 2 units wins
bet 3 at 1 unit loses
My unweighted record is 2-1 for a total of .9 units counting bet 2 as a 1 unit bet. My weighted record is 2-1 for a total of 1.9 units counting bet 2 as 2 units. Does this make sense? if not tell what does not and I will try to explain further.
As far as why one would show both records? I think the RAS website "What Makes us Different" section explains this well, so I will use their wording: "Other services will rate their plays between 3-5 "units" or "stars" to inflate their actual earnings when they are winning. They will say they are up 20 units in a week, but averaged out it is really only 4 or 5 units. Many services also rate their selections with huge variance to allow them to quickly erase negative records by hitting one big play."
The benefit of including both records is that it will demonstrate if your weighting actually helps or hurts your results.
(Disclaimer-- don't look at this season's results for proof-- I'm something like 1-10 on money lines)
I've always had a problem with generalizations about bettors, so I don't want to say most bettors weight their plays though my guess is that most do (both winning and losing bettors).
If weighting is hurting you (as you mentioned), then there's no reason to be weighting. That's why, as I mentioned above, keeping both weighted and unweighted records demonstrates the impact of those weightings.
If you can accurately quantify your edge, or at the very least identify certain plays that outperform others, then it's mathematically correct to bet more on those plays with greater +EV. However, determining one's edge in sports betting is extremely difficult.
I wish every sports bettor learned how to count cards, preferably before they got into sports as I did. In blackjack, you can actually quantify your edge with math, and learning about bet sizing and edge that way gives you a very solid foundation that makes applying concepts like the Kelly Criterion to sports betting far easier.