With Holman back at the Titans I think their offense will be much more effective. They also have pretty much the same team as last year and if we go back and look at all their home games since the start of last year they have shot very well at home 48% over 18 games. The Bulldogs have been very good on offense also. They are shooting 48% on the season and have been very good over their last six games where they are shooting 53% and averaging 82 ppg. This game should be played at a fairly fast past and with two good offenses their should be plenty of points.
568 Louisville OVER 137
The Cardinals are slowing getting healthy. I dont think this game is going to be played like a lot of their previous games. The Cardinal has been much better on offense in their last couple of games were they score 90 and 80. I expect that will see an up and down game here. Memphis defense has given up some pts this year. Belmont, Michigan, Tennessee, Georgetown and Murray St. all scored 70+ and I got to think Louisville will score as well. Memphis has gotten some players back in Carmouche and Hall. They played a very tough schedule and despite this are shooting 48% from the field. They have scored 70+ in every game but one. They should also be able to score a few pts here.
590 Virginia Commonwealth OVER 129.5
After a not so great start to the season the VCU offense is starting to come around. They have averaged close to 70 ppg over their last six games and most of these games were against what figures to be pretty good teams. Their last three games against Richmond, George Washington and South Florida have been their three best offensive efforts of the year so they should be coming into this first conference game clicking on all cylinders. The Seahawks are giving up close to 70 ppg and the Rams should find the scoring to come a little easier. I dont expect the Seahawks to be the slow paced team that they were last season. They are just coming of a track meet type of game against Liberty so there should be some pace in this game. Other than the one bad game against Dayton the Seahawks have score at least 60 in every game and if they can hit that number here this one should have a great shot to go over.
612 UCLA UNDER 136
The Bruins switch to the zone defense has resulted in the last four games being very slow paced with three out of the four going under the total. The only game out of the three to go over was the game against Penn where both teams shot the ball very well. With Nelson kicked of the team the UCLA offense figure to take a step back. The Briuns did get off to a bad start but I think they have played a little better recently in that their winning the games theyre suppose to. They have played some difficult opponents and have shown in recent games against bad teams the defense can deliver holding both Eastern Washington and Pepperdine to under 50 pts. Since losing Ryan Sypkins the UC Davis offense has been nothing special shooting just under 40% in their last six games.
624 North Carolina OVER 151.5
Whenever the Tar Heels play these bad teams it usually results in some big nights on offense for them. They score 91, 101, 102 and 97 on their weakest opponents (NC Asheville, Mississippi Valley St., Tennessee St., Evansville). I see no reason they dont rack up another big offense game against Appalachian St.
644 Michigan UNDER 133
I just dont think Alabama A&M is going to be able to score enough to get this one over the total. To start with they already have one of the worst offenses in the league. Going back to the start of last year and looking at their games against top 100 rpi teams they have averaged shooting 30.8% and scoring 47 ppg. They scored 44 & 45 in their last two games. Even though they play at a fast pace I just dont think Michigan is all that concerned with putting up a big number. They were a 28.5 favorite against Towson and won 64-47, in other non-lined games against terrible opponents they did not blow them away. They beat Western Illinois 59-55, they beat Arkansas Pine Bluff 63-50.
The last two games the Beavers scored 93 and 95 points and their not the type of team that is going to take the foot of the gas pedal should they establish a big lead. The Vikings issues have always been with their defense. This year it does not look like they are going to be much better. They have played a lot of bad opponents with terrible offenses. Their defense has struggled the most in their last three games where they have given up 93, 79 and 87. This looks like a good spot where the Ducks can once again put up a 90pt effort. The Vikings average 77 ppg this season so they will find away to score as well.
874 South Dakota UNDER 146
The Griffs havent been playing with much pace lately and despite being a fast paced team, South Dakota has only played one non-conference game with more than 132 total points scored this season. Ill go with the recent trends on this one and hope for the best.
For those of you not keeping track at home that Canisius/South Dakota was the third game this year that was under in regulation but went over due to the 5 minute extra period. Well on pace for a record year in that area. To me this crap is about the same has having a soccer game go to penalty kicks and being able to count them towards the total.
This game should have enough pace to get it over the number with both these teams liking to get out and run. Kansas should have its way on offense as the Wildcats defense has been a little suspect this season. They are allowing opponents to shot 46.4% this season and this probably is not going to work out well for them going up against a Kansas offense that is shooting close to 50% on the season with half of their games coming against top 20 teams. The Jayhawk offense comes into this game running hot shooting 58% and 54% in their last two games. Even though Kansas does have a good defense I think the Wildcats should be able to score some. Theyre averaging 77 ppg and scored well in other games (Vanderbilt & Duke) when up against a top 20 team.
Does the long layoff for both Davidson and KU factor much, either positive or negative, into your over play? I never really know how to handle those spots from a totals perspective.
This game should have enough pace to get it over the number with both these teams liking to get out and run. Kansas should have its way on offense as the Wildcats defense has been a little suspect this season. They are allowing opponents to shot 46.4% this season and this probably is not going to work out well for them going up against a Kansas offense that is shooting close to 50% on the season with half of their games coming against top 20 teams. The Jayhawk offense comes into this game running hot shooting 58% and 54% in their last two games. Even though Kansas does have a good defense I think the Wildcats should be able to score some. Theyre averaging 77 ppg and scored well in other games (Vanderbilt & Duke) when up against a top 20 team.
Kansas's starting guard/2nd leading scorer who leads the team in assists is out. You don't think this will slow down the game?
Only one time this year in 10 games have the Huskies scored more than 57 pts and that was against Nebraska Omaha that is ranked #343 in defense efficiency. I just think its more of the same tonight, if they cant score against teams like Utah Valley and UIC which have questionable defense they probably are going to have the same difficulties against Valparaiso. The pace in these last few Husky games has been on the slow side even against teams that play fast like DePaul and UIC. I think we probably see that same style again tonight.
Usually when the Buckeyes play one of these fast paced non-conference games against a team from the lower conferences they put up tons of pts. Going back the last two years here is what they scored against these teams:
102 - North Carolina A&T
85 - Western Carolina
83 - Florida Gulf Coast
96 - NC Asheville
92 - Oakland
100 - Tennessee Martin
85 - North Florida
107 - Virginia Military Inst
I think Ohio St. finds away to score 90+ tonight and if that happens we dont need much from Lamar. Unlike most of these teams Lamar has some offense they already scored 70+ on some pretty good teams in Ohio and Charlotte.
Buffalo has yet to play a real good team yet this year so even though they do have some good numbers on defense. I dont think theyre going to have much success slowing down BYU. The Cougars are shooting close to 50% on the season and they play much better at home especially on offense where they are averaging 86 ppg this season. Last season game between these teams was a fast paced game with lots of scoring and I see no reason why any of that is going to change this season. Also with Carlino back for BYU and starting at the point tonight that improves their offense. There is nothing wrong with the Buffalo offense. They are averaging 74 ppg this season.
We know these Tim Floyd teams are not going to be very fast paced. Most of their opponents have been fast paced teams this year or really slow paced teams. In the games against the really slow paced teams (UC Riverside, Stephen F. Austin) both games were really slow paced and result in total scoring of less than 100 in each game. Neither one of these teams offense are anything to get excited about and each defense is well above average.
I see quit a few good defensive teams on the Phoenix schedule so far this season. Clearly theyre not a great offensive team but having played so many rock solid defensive teams it kind of distorts the offensive stats. In their two conference games they shot the ball reasonably well. One would think they could have some success on this Vandal, which is maybe a little questionable. After all Wright St. a team that has struggled with offense all year shot 45% against them in their last game. On offense I think a lot of people have under estimated this Vandal team. They have shot 49% from the field this season and 51% from the field in their last eight games. During this stretch every game has had at least 130 pts scored except one.
With Middleton back for the Aggies the offense should only get better. He has had a few games under his belt now and played 36 minutes against Florida. Without Middleton the Aggies were consistently scoring in the mid 50s since his return they have scored 60+ in every game. The Owls have not played many tough teams but the few good teams they played (Northern Iowa, Iowa St. and Temple) they were able to score 60+ on each of them. With the pace at which Rice plays and their lack of defense I really think the Aggies can score 70+ in this game.
The Badgers have played every game this season under this number except one and there have been plenty of fast pace teams on their schedule. It does not matter if they play a fast pace team as the games are always on the slow side. There defense is so good that this will probably be the eighth time this year they will have held an opponent to under 50 pts.
I think it's very likely we see the return of the burn offense tonight. The Irish have used this offense the last three games against Pittsburgh and have won them all with no game exceeding 121 pts. Considering the injuries that the Irish have, the past success and Wagner using some of the same offensive philosophies in their upset against the Panthers, I think the chances are really good that we see this offense tonight. Nobody knows for sure what type of offense we will see out of the Irish but this total has only seen one way action so far.
Comments
Will start adding a few 1H under wagers and put them in this thread.
With Holman back at the Titans I think their offense will be much more effective. They also have pretty much the same team as last year and if we go back and look at all their home games since the start of last year they have shot very well at home 48% over 18 games. The Bulldogs have been very good on offense also. They are shooting 48% on the season and have been very good over their last six games where they are shooting 53% and averaging 82 ppg. This game should be played at a fairly fast past and with two good offenses their should be plenty of points.
568 Louisville OVER 137
The Cardinals are slowing getting healthy. I dont think this game is going to be played like a lot of their previous games. The Cardinal has been much better on offense in their last couple of games were they score 90 and 80. I expect that will see an up and down game here. Memphis defense has given up some pts this year. Belmont, Michigan, Tennessee, Georgetown and Murray St. all scored 70+ and I got to think Louisville will score as well. Memphis has gotten some players back in Carmouche and Hall. They played a very tough schedule and despite this are shooting 48% from the field. They have scored 70+ in every game but one. They should also be able to score a few pts here.
590 Virginia Commonwealth OVER 129.5
After a not so great start to the season the VCU offense is starting to come around. They have averaged close to 70 ppg over their last six games and most of these games were against what figures to be pretty good teams. Their last three games against Richmond, George Washington and South Florida have been their three best offensive efforts of the year so they should be coming into this first conference game clicking on all cylinders. The Seahawks are giving up close to 70 ppg and the Rams should find the scoring to come a little easier. I dont expect the Seahawks to be the slow paced team that they were last season. They are just coming of a track meet type of game against Liberty so there should be some pace in this game. Other than the one bad game against Dayton the Seahawks have score at least 60 in every game and if they can hit that number here this one should have a great shot to go over.
612 UCLA UNDER 136
The Bruins switch to the zone defense has resulted in the last four games being very slow paced with three out of the four going under the total. The only game out of the three to go over was the game against Penn where both teams shot the ball very well. With Nelson kicked of the team the UCLA offense figure to take a step back. The Briuns did get off to a bad start but I think they have played a little better recently in that their winning the games theyre suppose to. They have played some difficult opponents and have shown in recent games against bad teams the defense can deliver holding both Eastern Washington and Pepperdine to under 50 pts. Since losing Ryan Sypkins the UC Davis offense has been nothing special shooting just under 40% in their last six games.
624 North Carolina OVER 151.5
Whenever the Tar Heels play these bad teams it usually results in some big nights on offense for them. They score 91, 101, 102 and 97 on their weakest opponents (NC Asheville, Mississippi Valley St., Tennessee St., Evansville). I see no reason they dont rack up another big offense game against Appalachian St.
644 Michigan UNDER 133
I just dont think Alabama A&M is going to be able to score enough to get this one over the total. To start with they already have one of the worst offenses in the league. Going back to the start of last year and looking at their games against top 100 rpi teams they have averaged shooting 30.8% and scoring 47 ppg. They scored 44 & 45 in their last two games. Even though they play at a fast pace I just dont think Michigan is all that concerned with putting up a big number. They were a 28.5 favorite against Towson and won 64-47, in other non-lined games against terrible opponents they did not blow them away. They beat Western Illinois 59-55, they beat Arkansas Pine Bluff 63-50.
The last two games the Beavers scored 93 and 95 points and their not the type of team that is going to take the foot of the gas pedal should they establish a big lead. The Vikings issues have always been with their defense. This year it does not look like they are going to be much better. They have played a lot of bad opponents with terrible offenses. Their defense has struggled the most in their last three games where they have given up 93, 79 and 87. This looks like a good spot where the Ducks can once again put up a 90pt effort. The Vikings average 77 ppg this season so they will find away to score as well.
874 South Dakota UNDER 146
The Griffs havent been playing with much pace lately and despite being a fast paced team, South Dakota has only played one non-conference game with more than 132 total points scored this season. Ill go with the recent trends on this one and hope for the best.
LOL
YTD 27-28-1
For those of you not keeping track at home that Canisius/South Dakota was the third game this year that was under in regulation but went over due to the 5 minute extra period. Well on pace for a record year in that area. To me this crap is about the same has having a soccer game go to penalty kicks and being able to count them towards the total.
This game should have enough pace to get it over the number with both these teams liking to get out and run. Kansas should have its way on offense as the Wildcats defense has been a little suspect this season. They are allowing opponents to shot 46.4% this season and this probably is not going to work out well for them going up against a Kansas offense that is shooting close to 50% on the season with half of their games coming against top 20 teams. The Jayhawk offense comes into this game running hot shooting 58% and 54% in their last two games. Even though Kansas does have a good defense I think the Wildcats should be able to score some. Theyre averaging 77 ppg and scored well in other games (Vanderbilt & Duke) when up against a top 20 team.
Kansas's starting guard/2nd leading scorer who leads the team in assists is out. You don't think this will slow down the game?
http://www2.kusports.com/news/2011/dec/18/tyshawn-taylor-likely-play-monday-against-davidson/
Only one time this year in 10 games have the Huskies scored more than 57 pts and that was against Nebraska Omaha that is ranked #343 in defense efficiency. I just think its more of the same tonight, if they cant score against teams like Utah Valley and UIC which have questionable defense they probably are going to have the same difficulties against Valparaiso. The pace in these last few Husky games has been on the slow side even against teams that play fast like DePaul and UIC. I think we probably see that same style again tonight.
Usually when the Buckeyes play one of these fast paced non-conference games against a team from the lower conferences they put up tons of pts. Going back the last two years here is what they scored against these teams:
102 - North Carolina A&T
85 - Western Carolina
83 - Florida Gulf Coast
96 - NC Asheville
92 - Oakland
100 - Tennessee Martin
85 - North Florida
107 - Virginia Military Inst
I think Ohio St. finds away to score 90+ tonight and if that happens we dont need much from Lamar. Unlike most of these teams Lamar has some offense they already scored 70+ on some pretty good teams in Ohio and Charlotte.
Buffalo has yet to play a real good team yet this year so even though they do have some good numbers on defense. I dont think theyre going to have much success slowing down BYU. The Cougars are shooting close to 50% on the season and they play much better at home especially on offense where they are averaging 86 ppg this season. Last season game between these teams was a fast paced game with lots of scoring and I see no reason why any of that is going to change this season. Also with Carlino back for BYU and starting at the point tonight that improves their offense. There is nothing wrong with the Buffalo offense. They are averaging 74 ppg this season.
Thanks
I would pass on 100% of these that move 5pts this far into the season, unless I had rock solid information to support the move.
We know these Tim Floyd teams are not going to be very fast paced. Most of their opponents have been fast paced teams this year or really slow paced teams. In the games against the really slow paced teams (UC Riverside, Stephen F. Austin) both games were really slow paced and result in total scoring of less than 100 in each game. Neither one of these teams offense are anything to get excited about and each defense is well above average.
I see quit a few good defensive teams on the Phoenix schedule so far this season. Clearly theyre not a great offensive team but having played so many rock solid defensive teams it kind of distorts the offensive stats. In their two conference games they shot the ball reasonably well. One would think they could have some success on this Vandal, which is maybe a little questionable. After all Wright St. a team that has struggled with offense all year shot 45% against them in their last game. On offense I think a lot of people have under estimated this Vandal team. They have shot 49% from the field this season and 51% from the field in their last eight games. During this stretch every game has had at least 130 pts scored except one.
With Middleton back for the Aggies the offense should only get better. He has had a few games under his belt now and played 36 minutes against Florida. Without Middleton the Aggies were consistently scoring in the mid 50s since his return they have scored 60+ in every game. The Owls have not played many tough teams but the few good teams they played (Northern Iowa, Iowa St. and Temple) they were able to score 60+ on each of them. With the pace at which Rice plays and their lack of defense I really think the Aggies can score 70+ in this game.
The Badgers have played every game this season under this number except one and there have been plenty of fast pace teams on their schedule. It does not matter if they play a fast pace team as the games are always on the slow side. There defense is so good that this will probably be the eighth time this year they will have held an opponent to under 50 pts.
YTD 32-32-1
I think it's very likely we see the return of the burn offense tonight. The Irish have used this offense the last three games against Pittsburgh and have won them all with no game exceeding 121 pts. Considering the injuries that the Irish have, the past success and Wagner using some of the same offensive philosophies in their upset against the Panthers, I think the chances are really good that we see this offense tonight. Nobody knows for sure what type of offense we will see out of the Irish but this total has only seen one way action so far.