Betting Talk

Bama questions for Horn

BigFishBigFish Member
edited November 2011 in Sports Betting
Horn:

First thing first, sorry about the tough loss. Felt like Bama was the better team. I have a substantial position on Bama to win over 10 games (approx -130), I'm debating on hedge out a portion of it at some point. My questions to you: (1) considering Bama's current BCS ranking, and what's left on everyone's schedule, to you think Bama is going to be highly motivated in these last 3 games, or is the season "lost" at this point? Also, (2) what do you estimate the Auburn line at?

Thanks in advance for any input. And thanks for all that you do on this forum!

Comments

  • BetATLBetATL Super Moderator
    edited November 2011
    FWIW,

    Bama will definitely not lose 2 more games so the worst you could do on your bet is push. It is also very unlikely that Bama will lose another game so I would advise against hedging your bet at this point.

    As of now, I would prob put the line somewhere between Bama -14 and -17
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited November 2011
    Ya, pretty brutal loss.

    I wouldn't hedge out of the bet.

    Looking something like:

    -17 @ Miss State
    -40 vs. Ga Southern
    -15.5 @ Auburn

    Motivation will only be an issue for this Miss St game. Ga Southern is just inferior and the AUburn game own't be an issue to get up for after last year's debacle at home. I think there is a chance they can still play for the National Title so that should offset any potential major letdowns. They are just way, way better than the teams still on the schedule.
  • increasedoddincreasedodd Senior Member
    edited November 2011
    I have a bunch of Bama O10 and agree with horn. I considered the bet won if they beat LSU. AS it is now, I think the odds of it losing is less than 10%.

    Sean
  • BetATLBetATL Super Moderator
    edited November 2011
    increasedodd wrote: »
    AS it is now, I think the odds of it losing is less than 10%.

    Sean

    To be technical, the odds of them winning out is about 80%.
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