Bama questions for Horn
BigFish
Member
Horn:
First thing first, sorry about the tough loss. Felt like Bama was the better team. I have a substantial position on Bama to win over 10 games (approx -130), I'm debating on hedge out a portion of it at some point. My questions to you: (1) considering Bama's current BCS ranking, and what's left on everyone's schedule, to you think Bama is going to be highly motivated in these last 3 games, or is the season "lost" at this point? Also, (2) what do you estimate the Auburn line at?
Thanks in advance for any input. And thanks for all that you do on this forum!
First thing first, sorry about the tough loss. Felt like Bama was the better team. I have a substantial position on Bama to win over 10 games (approx -130), I'm debating on hedge out a portion of it at some point. My questions to you: (1) considering Bama's current BCS ranking, and what's left on everyone's schedule, to you think Bama is going to be highly motivated in these last 3 games, or is the season "lost" at this point? Also, (2) what do you estimate the Auburn line at?
Thanks in advance for any input. And thanks for all that you do on this forum!
Comments
Bama will definitely not lose 2 more games so the worst you could do on your bet is push. It is also very unlikely that Bama will lose another game so I would advise against hedging your bet at this point.
As of now, I would prob put the line somewhere between Bama -14 and -17
I wouldn't hedge out of the bet.
Looking something like:
-17 @ Miss State
-40 vs. Ga Southern
-15.5 @ Auburn
Motivation will only be an issue for this Miss St game. Ga Southern is just inferior and the AUburn game own't be an issue to get up for after last year's debacle at home. I think there is a chance they can still play for the National Title so that should offset any potential major letdowns. They are just way, way better than the teams still on the schedule.
Sean
To be technical, the odds of them winning out is about 80%.