Adjusting CFB totals for weather discussion
RightAngle
Admin
How much do you adjust down for rain only? 40-60%? 60-80%? 80-100%? Heavy, moderate, light, etc.
How much do you adjust down for wind? 10-15mph? 15-20mph? 20-30mph? Gusts?
Interested to hear different perspectives and ways to handle these.
Tomorrow's CT/Pitt game is a good example. Chance of rain near 100% at game time, but wind only 5-6mph.
How much do you adjust down for wind? 10-15mph? 15-20mph? 20-30mph? Gusts?
Interested to hear different perspectives and ways to handle these.
Tomorrow's CT/Pitt game is a good example. Chance of rain near 100% at game time, but wind only 5-6mph.
Comments
Temperature can be the big difference. Take Alabama or LSU and send them to Madison WI in late December, forget about it. Miami FL is the poster child the last two bowl seasons. Last year, cold front going thru the southwest, low 40's. Notre Dame looked like it was just another game, Miami looked like they were dressed to explore the arctic. Game over. Two years ago, cold front went thru Florida. They were all bundled up, had heaters on the sideline. Players would run to the sideline and immediately sit in front of the heaters. At the snap, they all had their hands in their pants. Wisconsin out there in short sleeves. Game over.
Stevie brings a good point up in temperature. Always an interesting variable later in the season on into bowl season, evident by the examples he gave above.
I'm not sure what % or exact point total on average I adjust a game with adverse weather but I would certainly say that each case is different for me.
I do remember back when I was in college there was a Monday Night Football game between Pittsburgh and Miami at Heinz Field. 5 high school games and a college game had been played on the field the weekend before and the field was in pretty bad shape so the field crew decided to put down another layer of sod on top of the one already there. The next day (Sunday) it rained all day and needless to say the field was a complete mess. I remember watching Monday Night Countdown and they showed the field and talked about how players could barely even move around. I called my bookie and put down everything I could (of course this was before I knew what proper money management was) on the Under 37.5. Final score was 3-0 as the only scoring game on a 4th quarter Steelers FG. Easiest bet I've ever made.
On another note..Steelers play Patriots Sunday after the Pit-Conn fisco in the rain.
Thought sure they would replace the sod coz it was messed up after the Jaguar game? They did not.
I don't have a set amount I use. I think it varies too much.
Best scenario is either in live or halftime betting. Or if you have a situation like we did a couple weeks where we had high wind all across the east coast/midwest and it was obvious all the games were being affected. The vast majority of the early/mid afternoon games went under there.
Does anyone think or know if there is any correlation between QB accuracy (quantifiable)/arm strength (perception based?) as well as an RB's propensity to fumble in relationship to the weather?
Also, what about a coaches game plan in rough weather conditions. Are minor adjustments made by some and major adjustments made by others. This would be interesting to know.
Just kind of throwing things out there...
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100701335432?journalCode=rafe20#preview
Points are not linear, nor are conditions. An optimal response would at a minimum involve a three dimensional graph, and even that would probably not be enough dimensions. A closed bowl shaped stadium would be significantly different than a stadium with one end open.