Betting Talk

Adjusting CFB totals for weather discussion

RightAngleRightAngle Admin
edited October 2011 in Sports Betting
How much do you adjust down for rain only? 40-60%? 60-80%? 80-100%? Heavy, moderate, light, etc.

How much do you adjust down for wind? 10-15mph? 15-20mph? 20-30mph? Gusts?

Interested to hear different perspectives and ways to handle these.

Tomorrow's CT/Pitt game is a good example. Chance of rain near 100% at game time, but wind only 5-6mph.

Comments

  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Unless it's a tropical storm downpour-- rain no problem. It's the wind. Messes up the passing game-- messes up the kicking game. How many times do you see some dumb-ass punter loft it up and it blows back for no gain or a loss? If extremely windy look for a team that's got Australian or rugby style punter.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited October 2011
    Normal rain or generally wet conditions helps the offense, especially passing teams, heavy rain to me can go either way based on temp and wind. Gusty winds favors the defense. I think the gusty winds are more harmful to offenses than anything else because they can come up at anytime. If you have stable 30 mph winds, you can get used to throwing in it or against it. If it is going from 20 to 35 at a moments notice, that makes it difficult.

    Temperature can be the big difference. Take Alabama or LSU and send them to Madison WI in late December, forget about it. Miami FL is the poster child the last two bowl seasons. Last year, cold front going thru the southwest, low 40's. Notre Dame looked like it was just another game, Miami looked like they were dressed to explore the arctic. Game over. Two years ago, cold front went thru Florida. They were all bundled up, had heaters on the sideline. Players would run to the sideline and immediately sit in front of the heaters. At the snap, they all had their hands in their pants. Wisconsin out there in short sleeves. Game over.
  • BetATLBetATL Super Moderator
    edited October 2011
    Rain is a tough variable to judge. I think it's different with each team and more importantly with each QB. Some QB's have no problem throwing the ball when it's wet, others don't like it. It also depends on what style offense the team runs. I do agree with Stevie when he says rain provides just a big disadvantage for defenses as it does offenses.

    Stevie brings a good point up in temperature. Always an interesting variable later in the season on into bowl season, evident by the examples he gave above.

    I'm not sure what % or exact point total on average I adjust a game with adverse weather but I would certainly say that each case is different for me.

    I do remember back when I was in college there was a Monday Night Football game between Pittsburgh and Miami at Heinz Field. 5 high school games and a college game had been played on the field the weekend before and the field was in pretty bad shape so the field crew decided to put down another layer of sod on top of the one already there. The next day (Sunday) it rained all day and needless to say the field was a complete mess. I remember watching Monday Night Countdown and they showed the field and talked about how players could barely even move around. I called my bookie and put down everything I could (of course this was before I knew what proper money management was) on the Under 37.5. Final score was 3-0 as the only scoring game on a 4th quarter Steelers FG. Easiest bet I've ever made.
  • TheDudeTheDude Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Our record with weather bets is about 23% ATS, so if I mention it ....fade my pick.
  • RaloRalo Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Speaking of the Steelers-Dolphins game, the sod was so messed up the players got "stuck" in it.

    On another note..Steelers play Patriots Sunday after the Pit-Conn fisco in the rain.

    Thought sure they would replace the sod coz it was messed up after the Jaguar game? They did not.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited October 2011
    Is anyone willing to try to quantify certain weather conditions as being worth x amount of points? Is it something people don't want to share publically (perfectly understandable) or do widely accepted guidelines simply not exist?
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited October 2011
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Is anyone willing to try to quantify certain weather conditions as being worth x amount of points? Is it something people don't want to share publically (perfectly understandable) or do widely accepted guidelines simply not exist?

    I don't have a set amount I use. I think it varies too much.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    Seems like these days weather when you make a play based on bad weather you can get yourself in trouble as the games are frequently delayed until the bad weather clears. I have even seen happen in games where no lighting is involved.
  • TwoninerTwoniner Member
    edited October 2011
    I think guidelines using forecast rain %'s and even wind estimates are going to be very marginal. The weather reports vary widely. Stadiums vary widely on how the wind effects, type of surface/how the water drains. QB's differ on how they can throw. Coaches differ on how conservative or effective they are in adjusting.

    Best scenario is either in live or halftime betting. Or if you have a situation like we did a couple weeks where we had high wind all across the east coast/midwest and it was obvious all the games were being affected. The vast majority of the early/mid afternoon games went under there.
  • AceofSpadesAceofSpades Member
    edited October 2011
    Good stuff in here. I do not cap CFB but let me ask some other things.

    Does anyone think or know if there is any correlation between QB accuracy (quantifiable)/arm strength (perception based?) as well as an RB's propensity to fumble in relationship to the weather?

    Also, what about a coaches game plan in rough weather conditions. Are minor adjustments made by some and major adjustments made by others. This would be interesting to know.

    Just kind of throwing things out there...
  • MrEastMrEast Member
    edited October 2011
    The only factor that matters in weather is wind, in terms of already adjusted lines, it has been proven to be true
  • MrEastMrEast Member
    edited October 2011
    The only factor that matters in weather is wind, in terms of already adjusted lines, it has been proven to be true that is of the ones mentioned, temperature is a definate contributor to performance advantages and disadvantages, more so than the things you mentioned
  • MrEastMrEast Member
    edited October 2011
    I'm not an advocate of trying to direct anyone to buying anything here, but this is a must for anyone that wants the answwr to the question proposed here, very enlightening:

    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100701335432?journalCode=rafe20#preview
  • MrEastMrEast Member
    edited October 2011
    I've spoken to Rodney Paul many times. he does a lot of sports wagering research. he gets them published in the Journal of Economics, him and his buddy Andrew Weinbach. For anyone interested he is at St. Bonaventure Univ. and usually is approachable
  • CaptainBCaptainB Senior Member
    edited October 2011
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Is anyone willing to try to quantify certain weather conditions as being worth x amount of points? Is it something people don't want to share publically (perfectly understandable) or do widely accepted guidelines simply not exist?

    Points are not linear, nor are conditions. An optimal response would at a minimum involve a three dimensional graph, and even that would probably not be enough dimensions. A closed bowl shaped stadium would be significantly different than a stadium with one end open.
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