questions about teasers
acetoten
Senior Member
could someone give me rules with teasers? are they different in casinos and with local books?
do half points matter? what happens if u push a game and win a game? can u tease a game and a total on the same game? Are college and pro teasers treated the same way? if u can think of anything else, please add to it. I do realize or at least think u get 6 points on both games.....
thanx in advance,
do half points matter? what happens if u push a game and win a game? can u tease a game and a total on the same game? Are college and pro teasers treated the same way? if u can think of anything else, please add to it. I do realize or at least think u get 6 points on both games.....
thanx in advance,
Comments
In general, they are a losing bet long term unless you're sticking to playing them in spots where they are profitable over time. The simple version of that would be to only tease favorites of 7.5-8.5 and underdogs of 1.5-2.5 (thus you're crossing both the key numbers of 3 and 7). And even then, you'd like to see a 2-teamer pay even money (tough to find these days) and a 3 teamer pay +180.
2. Don't tease totals.
3. In NFL, only tease if you are going through the 3 and the 7, as Tommy said.
4. Also as Tommy said, try to find even money for a 2 teamer and +180 for a 3 teamer.
Like to see the ML move at least 1% in winning %age. For example the NYJ started at +113 and are now at -109 for a difference of only .90 WP. The implied probability at +113 is 46.95 and +109 it is 47.85, not quite a 1% difference.
The plays as of today would be Denver, GB and Balt. Checking closer to gametime and the plays could be different.
I would rather remove my toenails with pliers than get into a Bill the Cop discussion, but everything written above is incorrect.
Are you willing to expand on why you feel that way? The historical data seems to be some pretty compelling evidence, unless you feel that we're dealing with sample sizes that are too small or don't trust that the past will predict the future.
I second (or third) that motion. The historical data looks pretty strong to me.
I booked that one late last night.
So because it's happened in the past it's going to happen in the future?
Which is exactly what Bill the Cop pointed out. And of course, the past can not necessarily predict the future, but that is what we have to go by.
Sorry, I missed it being mentioned earlier.
Road faves crossing the 3 and the 7 are a terrible subset because road faves of > 7 have also been a terrible subset historically. The sample size is also rather small, something like 75 or 80 games since the rules change in 1994. The reason most of these teaser threads are so useless is because they only look at the teaser cover rate and not a comparison between the teaser cover rate and the ATS rate of the straight bet.
One of the locals I use offers OPEN Teasers and Parlays. Basically, I can tease/parlay 1 team and choose up to 5 OPEN slots to fill later. Is this common?
Road Favs -7.5 to -8.5, 46-27-0 for 63% (SS 73)
Road Favs -7 to -9, 117-62-3 for 65.4% (SS 182)
Road Favs -7 to -24, 183-111-4 for 62.2% (SS 298)
However you slice/dice the data, the RF of 7 or more are -EV for teasers
Tying teaser results to how the subset has done ATS doesn't make any sense to me. The two bets are not mutually exclusive. In other words they can both occur at the same time, and both be +EV. Here's an example of what I'm talking about:
You have a RD+6, (SS 159) that the data shows goes 87-65-7 ATS for a 57.2% cover rate. Good bet, +EV!
The data also show this subset goes 122-36-1 for 77.2% with a 6Pt tease. Also a good bet, +EV!
So both bets (teaser and bet ATS) are worth betting.
Now here's another example where I'd only bet the teaser:
HF-7 to -9, 388-128-19 for 75.2% on a 6 pt. tease +EV, but only 252-268-15 ATS for 48.5% -EV
My point is, look at both ATS and teaser data, sometimes both are good bets, sometimes just one, sometimes neither!
No, I have no interest in participating in a lengthy teaser discussion. These threads have been going on since 2005 or 2006, across many forums, and literally hundreds of people have pointed out errors in the methodology and that's all ignored, so I don't see any need to waste my time repeating what's been discussed countless times. Those interested can search for old threads on other forums, not sure what the policy is here about linking to competing forums so I won't.
His data is not "wrong," to my knowledge, but rather misleading, incomplete, and misinterpreted.
To very briefly "solve by inspection," note that Pinnacle wants no part of GB or BAL teasers this week and they generally shade road favorite teasers as much as they shade home favorite teasers. They also routinely offer alternate lines where they offer +10.5 on +4.5 dogs at better terms than you would get on teasers. You can decide for yourself whether Pinnacle has been wrong for all these years.
So, I guess what you are saying in the end is that you have nothing specific to rebut what Bill has said...clearly, you must not have the numbers to back up what you say.
Wrong, but thanks for playing. Bill has been told literally hundreds of times how he misinterprets his data. The discussion eventually degenerates into boasts or personal attacks, and he persists in posting the same misleading information year after year, from forum to forum. You are welcome to search other forums for the rebuttal you desire, but I'm not wasting my time replying to someone who has no interest in listening to something he's been told hundreds of times before.
He gave you the answer and you're missing it
I'm curious what your teaser strategy is then (don't need a long explanation, just cliff notes if you're willing to share). Do you not believe in any +EV teaser situations? Do you feel that there are profitable situations in addition to the well known ones that others are missing? I understand that you don't agree with BTC's data, but I'm curious if you have any thoughts on teaser strategy (outside of simply disagreeing with his analysis of the data).
Personally, I've never seen a thread elsewhere to dispute his findings. I'm not saying that his stuff is right/wrong, but I can say that I've also seen hundreds of threads out on other forums telling you that RAS plays should be faded, so I obviously would need to read for myself rather than blindly listen to what others have said on a different forum. If you don't want to discuss here, then I'll search elsewhere. Thanks.
The simplest thought I can share, which I already mentioned, is that you have to compare the ATS cover rate with the teaser cover rate, rather than simply look at the overall teaser cover rate. A hypothetical scenario: WA line is away team -8.5. You have a square out with home team +10 -110. How do you bet that game? Or, if you prefer, a handicapper you believe to be successful, call him RAS NFL, suggests a play on away team -8.5. How do you bet that game?
It's not that I don't want to discuss it, it's simply that anything further I would have to add would just be reinventing the wheel. I'm very surprised you wouldn't have read one of these teaser discussions before unless you don't read other forums. Would you like me to point you towards these threads? As I said, I don't make it a habit to mention competing forums as many forums have a rule against that.