Auburn - Utah State
fgrauzer
Member
I am a very casual gambler, only gamble during football season (almost always college). I really like Utah St +22 but after perusing the boards I see the line opened at a shocking +32...... I was hoping to get some opinions on Utah St +22 as I am not able to jump on opening lines due to work commitments. Thanks in advance
Comments
GL
Hear me out, Utah State nearly knocked off Oklahoma in week one last season. The sooners narrowly escaped, 31-24. Auburn lost nearly all of their players - returning only 5 combined starters on offense and defense! Moreover, the Tigers could have a national title hangover. Unlikely, yes, but the Aggies knocking off Auburn is not out of the question
Yes, there is a sizeable talent gap here but I think looking beyond that there's reason to believe Utah St will be able to compete. Auburn struggled last year with smaller teams that took away the advtange up front using the short to intermediate passing game, something that Utah St does fairly well. I think they'll be able to sustain some long drives with this strategy and put somepoints on the board.
Agree with Horn though that I believe a lot of the +EV in this play has been negated with the 10 pt line move.