Betting Talk

Auburn - Utah State

fgrauzerfgrauzer Member
edited August 2011 in Sports Betting
I am a very casual gambler, only gamble during football season (almost always college). I really like Utah St +22 but after perusing the boards I see the line opened at a shocking +32...... I was hoping to get some opinions on Utah St +22 as I am not able to jump on opening lines due to work commitments. Thanks in advance

Comments

  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited August 2011
    I would not put too much stock into the opening numbers on sides from week 1. Bookmaker always originates lines but BetOnline chose to lead the charge this year and had no idea what they were doing on quite a few games. All of the lines that were just really silly moved big time, Auburn and Northwestern (+10 I believe) are two that I can think of off the top of my head. If you like Utah State +22, go for it.. typically it would be unwise to play a game that has moved 10 points in any other week and under any other circumstance, but probably not in this one due to the strange dynamics. Not saying I like or dislike the side, just saying if you think +22 is +EV -- bet it.

    GL
  • randy2005randy2005 Senior Member
    edited August 2011
    Utah State at Auburn

    Hear me out, Utah State nearly knocked off Oklahoma in week one last season. The sooners narrowly escaped, 31-24. Auburn lost nearly all of their players - returning only 5 combined starters on offense and defense! Moreover, the Tigers could have a national title hangover. Unlikely, yes, but the Aggies knocking off Auburn is not out of the question
  • deadpaintdeadpaint Senior Member
    edited August 2011
    Just remember that Utah State started at quarterback against Oklahoma a senior that had started the two previous seasons. They also lost two of their top three rushers. Auburn was decimated by graduation and defection, but tread lightly here. There is a large talent discrepancy between these two teams and the game is being played at 10:00 a.m. Utah time. I think it will be hard for the Aggies to score more than 10. But what do I know
  • BetATLBetATL Super Moderator
    edited August 2011
    Coming from an avid Auburn fan, it wouldn't surprise me to see Utah St hang around in this one. It's no secret that Auburn has had a lot of turnover from last year to this year and I'm not sure anyone knows what quite to expect, coaches and players included.

    Yes, there is a sizeable talent gap here but I think looking beyond that there's reason to believe Utah St will be able to compete. Auburn struggled last year with smaller teams that took away the advtange up front using the short to intermediate passing game, something that Utah St does fairly well. I think they'll be able to sustain some long drives with this strategy and put somepoints on the board.

    Agree with Horn though that I believe a lot of the +EV in this play has been negated with the 10 pt line move.
  • fgrauzerfgrauzer Member
    edited August 2011
    Auburn has 3 starters on offense and 3 on defense returning. Utah St still returns a great deal of offensive guys, yet only 3 on defense. Yeah Utah State lost their Qb but they regain their top RB from 2009 who was out all last year. Combine this with the fact that greater than 50% of Auburns roster is filled with unproven underclassman and I will take 3+ tds.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited August 2011
    Keep in mind that this years opening numbers (ie Auburn -32) were put up at BetOnLine. Their numbers have proven to be off the mark by quite a bit-- in both NFLX and colleges.
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