NFL Preseason **2 unit play**
Bookiefits
Senior Member
Pittsburgh -2 1/2 I know there are many books still sitting out there on -3, but some outs have -2 1/2. Normally I don't like betting against a line move but this one is going to be a public bloodbath. I honestly think the Eagles could line up against the 85 Bears this weekend and the betting would be about 50/50. Michael Vick, Vince Young, DeShawn Jackson, etc. etc. etc. Let the line drop. Grab it at the best number you can but I feel good even laying the -3.
What most people are forgetting after last weekend is this.
1) Andy Reid is 19-30 in preseason games.
2) Mike Tomlin is 13-5
The Eagles won last week, the Steelers lost. One thing to keep in mind is that Pittsburgh lost to the Redskins on the road in their opener against Mike Shannahan who just happens to take preseason very seriously (44-21 record). Mike Tomlin was openly not very happy about some of the performances of his players trying to make the team, and I can see them playing with a renewed sense this weekend..doesn't hurt they're at home.
I would also give the QB rotation edge to the Steelers as they have 2 qbs (Leftwhich and Batch) who have significant amounts of playing time as starters in the NFL, and Dixon who has shown flashes of brilliance in some of the games he has played, and also has a bunch of NFL games under his belt. As far as Philly's QB rotation goes, I think Vick sees the first quarter (against a number 1 NFL defense) and then he is yanked..maybe sooner if he takes any hits. I also do not see him scrambling around too much with Reid giving some very vanilla plays. Also note, their is a big battle for backup RB in camp with Ronnie Brown and rookie Dion Lewis.
Vince Young looked decent last week against Baltimore, but let's face it..it's Vince Young and he will make some mistakes.
As a bonus, the Eagles are using rookie place kicker Alex Henerey who is said to look awful this week in practice. Bottom line is the Steelers are going to have more motivation to perform, have a better QB rotation, have a coach who likes to win in the preseason and is coming off of a loss in which he feels his team underperformed.
This may be one of my favorite preseason games I have ever seen. Everything is lining up for a Pittsburgh blowout. I normally make one 3 unit play in preseason, and I was tempted to pull the trigger here...I am probably saving that one for week 4 if everything falls into place. Anyways, I really like this play. 2 units
What most people are forgetting after last weekend is this.
1) Andy Reid is 19-30 in preseason games.
2) Mike Tomlin is 13-5
The Eagles won last week, the Steelers lost. One thing to keep in mind is that Pittsburgh lost to the Redskins on the road in their opener against Mike Shannahan who just happens to take preseason very seriously (44-21 record). Mike Tomlin was openly not very happy about some of the performances of his players trying to make the team, and I can see them playing with a renewed sense this weekend..doesn't hurt they're at home.
I would also give the QB rotation edge to the Steelers as they have 2 qbs (Leftwhich and Batch) who have significant amounts of playing time as starters in the NFL, and Dixon who has shown flashes of brilliance in some of the games he has played, and also has a bunch of NFL games under his belt. As far as Philly's QB rotation goes, I think Vick sees the first quarter (against a number 1 NFL defense) and then he is yanked..maybe sooner if he takes any hits. I also do not see him scrambling around too much with Reid giving some very vanilla plays. Also note, their is a big battle for backup RB in camp with Ronnie Brown and rookie Dion Lewis.
Vince Young looked decent last week against Baltimore, but let's face it..it's Vince Young and he will make some mistakes.
As a bonus, the Eagles are using rookie place kicker Alex Henerey who is said to look awful this week in practice. Bottom line is the Steelers are going to have more motivation to perform, have a better QB rotation, have a coach who likes to win in the preseason and is coming off of a loss in which he feels his team underperformed.
This may be one of my favorite preseason games I have ever seen. Everything is lining up for a Pittsburgh blowout. I normally make one 3 unit play in preseason, and I was tempted to pull the trigger here...I am probably saving that one for week 4 if everything falls into place. Anyways, I really like this play. 2 units
Comments
From a mathematical standpoint, number and size of bets should be determined by the edges you perceive, not by some predetermined arbitrary number.
I do know that game 4 for Andy Reid is a throw away. Starters hardly play and the scrubs who won't be there anyway get basically one game to show something. I am basing the play not only on coaching records but also the motivation and QB rotations. Given Pitts beat last week and Philly's win, the matchup is ideal. Here is a recent press conference from Mike Tomlin. Good stuff mixed in a 15 minute clip, but they are definitely going to be more focused this week. http://www.steelers.com/video-and-audio/videos/Training-Camp---Mike-Tomlin-Press-Conference--816/ce638935-74bd-4be7-a92b-53b454ebe565
He gives some insights to the game coming up, most noticeably comments about "everyone" having to prove themselves, and blasting the defense about not getting off the field.
Good point Goats. I will say this, I generally use very little statistical mathematics in my valuations of a game. I look at more subjective things such as motivations, last weeks performance, line settings and moves and public perceptions. I noticed you are very methodical in your approach. Not saying my way is right, but I have more success in NFL capping using these methods and have been pretty successful in the NFL, especially in preseason when using this approach.
As far as the unit measurements and "anticipating" a 3 unit play in week 4, there is a particular team that performs very well in game 4 preseason games over the last decade. Their performance in game 1 is working heavily in my favor, and my hope is they show more of the same. It just so happens that they are matched up with a team that performs miserably in game 4s, year after year, regardless of coach. That is not to say the line and motivations won't change, but I certainly try to limit my largest play in preseason (3 unit) down to a minimum. I think I had two last year going 1-1. Being vague for a reason (jinx), and I may certainly change my valuation of this one particular game I have "circled" until that line is released.
Either way, what does a 19-30 record in the preseason tell you about a coach wanting to win games? There are far more factors involved in the record than just motivation.. I can assure you the Eagles will want to win this game just as much as Pitt will... just as they want to win every game. Yes there are other things they need to work on and different environment than a regular season game, but Andy Reid aside, first time DC Juan Castillo will be as fired up as ever and motivating the defense. I see a low scoring, ugly offensive game, probably on both sides. For sake of entertainment, let's hope not, but it is preseason and defenses should be ahead of the defense.
Whohasagood1, maybe if the Saints somehow have to travel through Chicago to get to the SB again, thanks for the offer