Betting Talk

NCAAF 2011 Futures Thread

hornhorn Super Moderator
edited September 2011 in Sports Betting
Finally, Football is just around the corner. I have bet a variety of things all over the place but won't include everything in the record/thread. For the first official action of the 2011 season:

Idaho to win WAC +2500 (.50 unit)
Tennessee to Win SEC East +750 (.20 unit)
Illinois to win Big 10 +2500 (.20 unit)
UAB to win C-USA +1600 (.20 unit)
Trent Richardson to win Heisman +1150 (.20 unit)
Virginia Tech to win BCS Title +4300 (.10 unit)
Notre Dame to win BCS Title +3300 (.10 unit)

GOY Line: 9/24/2011

10365 San Diego State +8 vs. Michigan

Alabama to Win SEC +210

Alabama OVER 10 Regular Season Wins -110

Arizona UNDER 6.5 Wins -120

Oregon State UNDER 7 Wins -120

USC OVER 7.5 Wins -130




Will add some season win bets, perhaps additional GOY lines, etc etc to this thread.

GL
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Comments

  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited July 2011
    Love the long shots!
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited July 2011
    horn, how do you think my huskers are going to fair in their first big 10 season? can't wait for the matchup vs wisky!
  • fishboomfishboom Senior Member
    edited July 2011
    Interesting C-USA pick. Pundits are in love with USM and Houston, and being in Golden Eagle country, I am pulling for USM. They are talented. Blazers have both USM and Houston at home, so that bodes well for them. One possible downfall, UAB plays 12 weeks in a row, fatigue and injury could be a factor.

    gl
    fishboom
  • utixutix Banned
    edited July 2011
    Wondering what you think the true odd on Tenn to win the east are?

    Generally speaking, their toughest opponents, UF and Bama are both on the road this year. They play South Carolina on the end of a 4 game stretch that goes Georgia, LSU, Bama, USCe. And their bye week is in a bad spot, before Buffalo and early in the season.


    Comparing this to Florida, Florida has a bye week between Auburn and Georgia. They get Bama and Tenn at home. They get UAB at home before Tenn, Kentucky before Bama, and Vandy before USCe. Their tough stretch is Tenn, Kentucky, Bama, LSU, then Auburn before a bye week. Not exactly a walk in the park, but I like it more than Tenn's tough stretch

    Georiga schedule might line up the best. Their tough run goes Ole Miss, Miss st, Tenn, Vandy with Miss st being the only home game. They get Florida after a bye week, Auburn and Kentucky back to back late at home, and USCe at home after Boise St. All things being equal, I love Georiga's schedule in comparison to UF or UT.

    USCe has a 3 game road test with Miss st, Tenn and Ark followed by a home game with UF. Their bye week falls between Miss St and Tenn, which gives them a slight break. They have Georgia between East Carolina and Navy.


    Would you agree that of the 4 contenders in the East, Tenn has the worst schedule? I don't even know where to start with making the odds on this wager, but I hate the way this sets up for them, especially compared to a schedule like Georgia's.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    newcombe wrote: »
    horn, how do you think my huskers are going to fair in their first big 10 season? can't wait for the matchup vs wisky!

    Newc, I like them this year. I think that they are clearly in the top rung of the league with wisconsin, esp after signing Wilson. I've got Nebraska right around 15th I think in my initial power ratings. It's really a three game season for the Huskers, @Wisky, followed up by HC against tOSU (who knows what they'll be this year...) and later in year @ Penn State.

    I think the only game as of now I'd have them as a dog is @ Wisky - although I could see arguments for @ Penn State to a degree.

    10,11,12 wins in regular season is plausible, IMO.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    fishboom wrote: »
    Interesting C-USA pick. Pundits are in love with USM and Houston, and being in Golden Eagle country, I am pulling for USM. They are talented. Blazers have both USM and Houston at home, so that bodes well for them. One possible downfall, UAB plays 12 weeks in a row, fatigue and injury could be a factor.

    gl
    fishboom

    C-USA is a really interesting league this season. I actually think SMU returns a better team than Houston and Tulsa, but they have a much more challenging schedule. I'm actually about to spend some more time looking at C-USA East right now.

    UAB bet is prob a monetary donation from me, but I don't see the gap in class between the "top dogs", odds wise in the conference, that the market does. They get the right games at home too. Looking forward to seeing how this conf plays out as any number of teams have a puncher's chance to come out on top.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited July 2011
    thanks for the feedback and I agree with you. I'm still curious to see what happens with the big red offense and how they produce and in what fashion they produce. the D should be very solid again.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    utix wrote: »
    Wondering what you think the true odd on Tenn to win the east are?

    Generally speaking, their toughest opponents, UF and Bama are both on the road this year. They play South Carolina on the end of a 4 game stretch that goes Georgia, LSU, Bama, USCe. And their bye week is in a bad spot, before Buffalo and early in the season.


    Comparing this to Florida, Florida has a bye week between Auburn and Georgia. They get Bama and Tenn at home. They get UAB at home before Tenn, Kentucky before Bama, and Vandy before USCe. Their tough stretch is Tenn, Kentucky, Bama, LSU, then Auburn before a bye week. Not exactly a walk in the park, but I like it more than Tenn's tough stretch

    Georiga schedule might line up the best. Their tough run goes Ole Miss, Miss st, Tenn, Vandy with Miss st being the only home game. They get Florida after a bye week, Auburn and Kentucky back to back late at home, and USCe at home after Boise St. All things being equal, I love Georiga's schedule in comparison to UF or UT.

    USCe has a 3 game road test with Miss st, Tenn and Ark followed by a home game with UF. Their bye week falls between Miss St and Tenn, which gives them a slight break. They have Georgia between East Carolina and Navy.


    Would you agree that of the 4 contenders in the East, Tenn has the worst schedule? I don't even know where to start with making the odds on this wager, but I hate the way this sets up for them, especially compared to a schedule like Georgia's.

    Tenn def has the tougher schedule, and I think the odds reflect that, but I think it's been over compensated in the price. I feel like they're pretty much in the neighborhood of 7 points from a PR standpoint with the top 3 listed ahead of them in east.

    While they will be the dog in a bunch of games, I don't really count them out as a "sure" loss in any except @ Bama, but then again, I see what that thinking almost got me in 09' in Tuscaloosa as well..

    I think at +750 the IP is something like 11 or 12% and I just can't get on board with it being that poor, even with the nasty grabs with 3 Top 10 teams from the West...

    Basically, I'm not sure what I'd make it if I was an oddsmaker, but I think they are under valued and I'm trying to do as much as I can right now to capitalize on that...
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    GOY Line: 9/24/2011

    10365 San Diego State +8 vs. Michigan

    I have been going over this time and time again and I simply can't come up with a scenario where Michigan can realistically be deemed to be the superior team. SDSU is the favorite in this game if it's played last December. Granted, there are plenty of moving parts, and Hoke changes sidelines, but I believe betting against Michigan when they play a team that is better or at least on par with them will continue to remain profitable in the near future. I don't recall if this bet got dinged when Golden Nugget released their initial numbers, as almost every other Michigan game did - against them, but I'll take two scores right now with the better team and hope the Robinson takes his usual big shot against Eastern Michigan the week prior and this turns into a PICK EM.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited July 2011
    http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/06/20/golden-nugget-lines-for-2011-marquee-games/

    Regarding the Golden Nugget games, this one appeared not to have been hit.
  • kass101kass101 Senior Member
    edited July 2011
    horn wrote: »
    GOY Line: 9/24/2011

    10365 San Diego State +8 vs. Michigan

    I have been going over this time and time again and I simply can't come up with a scenario where Michigan can realistically be deemed to be the superior team. SDSU is the favorite in this game if it's played last December. Granted, there are plenty of moving parts, and Hoke changes sidelines, but I believe betting against Michigan when they play a team that is better or at least on par with them will continue to remain profitable in the near future. I don't recall if this bet got dinged when Golden Nugget released their initial numbers, as almost every other Michigan game did - against them, but I'll take two scores right now with the better team and hope the Robinson takes his usual big shot against Eastern Michigan the week prior and this turns into a PICK EM.

    You know I honestly dont understand why they are starting Robinson at QB. In any sport and especially college sports your best chance is to have all your best athletes on the field. Starting Gardner and putting Robinson at RB or in the slot would open up so many options that I dont see how a defense could properly prepare. Plus Gardner has the arm to throw the vertical down field passes.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    MikeRAS wrote: »
    http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/06/20/golden-nugget-lines-for-2011-marquee-games/

    Regarding the Golden Nugget games, this one appeared not to have been hit.

    Thanks. I have a local who I found out will let me bet a couple of these so I'm going to me looking for a couple more opportunities.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    kass101 wrote: »
    You know I honestly dont understand why they are starting Robinson at QB. In any sport and especially college sports your best chance is to have all your best athletes on the field. Starting Gardner and putting Robinson at RB or in the slot would open up so many options that I dont see how a defense could properly prepare. Plus Gardner has the arm to throw the vertical down field passes.

    Agree 100%
  • utixutix Banned
    edited July 2011
    horn wrote: »
    Tenn def has the tougher schedule, and I think the odds reflect that, but I think it's been over compensated in the price. I feel like they're pretty much in the neighborhood of 7 points from a PR standpoint with the top 3 listed ahead of them in east.

    While they will be the dog in a bunch of games, I don't really count them out as a "sure" loss in any except @ Bama, but then again, I see what that thinking almost got me in 09' in Tuscaloosa as well..

    I think at +750 the IP is something like 11 or 12% and I just can't get on board with it being that poor, even with the nasty grabs with 3 Top 10 teams from the West...

    Basically, I'm not sure what I'd make it if I was an oddsmaker, but I think they are under valued and I'm trying to do as much as I can right now to capitalize on that...

    I have no idea how to make odds on this bet, but I'm going to use deductive reasoning to get an approximate number.

    Let's say it's a 4 way race in the east, and we only give Vandy/Kentucky a 4% chance to win the East. I don't think that's too far off since Kentucky is 20:1 at the greek without throwing in Vandy. That leaves us with 4 teams splitting up 96%, everything being equal they would be 24% each. As you said, Tenn is a dog to each of the other 3 teams by as much as a TD. Let's say we only take 6% away from Tenn due to being an inferior team, that takes them to 18%. Them playing the 3 toughest teams in the West has to count for something, lets say it only 2% and they go to 16%. Take away 1% for a poor bye week placement and we are at 15%. Add in their terrible schedule with the toughest games being on the road and playing a nasty 4 game stretch, I just can't see it being much more than 12%, leaving little to no value IMO.

    I'm sure I'm over thinking this and possibly not even close to how someone should break something like this down, but it seems like a common sense method to me. Since you only bet 1/5th a unit on this, you want me to leave you alone now so you can win 20+ units again without hearing my nagging? :)
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    I would prob be better served to just bet them ML in all of the games they are dogged in.

    I anticipated something closer to +500, so when I got +750 (800 in real life) I felt it was worth a go.

    I leave these types of computations to the Ed's, Mike's, Stevie's, HuegoB's, Goats' of the world and I just bet the ones that look outta whack and hope :)
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    Alabama to Win SEC +210
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited July 2011
    Are you planning on F5'in the crap out of greek all week for the RSW totals? July 19th last year

    ETA: of course I forgot you can't F5 at greek....so annoying
  • BetATLBetATL Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    Good luck this year Horn!
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    Are you planning on F5'in the crap out of greek all week for the RSW totals? July 19th last year

    ETA: of course I forgot you can't F5 at greek....so annoying

    My luck, I'll be stuck in a dumb meeting when they come and everyone I want to bet will be -230 and a .5 game worse..

    RSW's are usually pretty easy, IMO. Just tough to get down and fast enough.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    Alabama OVER 10 Regular Season Wins -110 (1 unit)
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    That is at Greek as well as Hilton in Vegas. If you are fortunate enough to have access to either, I think it closes 10.5 and Bama wins at least 11 with a very realistic shot to win 12 as they will be a 7 pt or greater favorite in at least 10 games, if not all 12. I got this down in Vegas at -120 but posted 110 cause thats what it is at greek.
  • JB531JB531 Senior Member
    edited July 2011
    wonder how long it will take Heritage to put up RSW
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    JB531 wrote: »
    wonder how long it will take Heritage to put up RSW

    tomorrow, IMO. No special info, just a feeling they mirror greek tomorrow. Which I hope happens because there are some meat balls sitting at the greek.
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    One more future, for now:

    Idaho to win WAC +2500 (.50 unit)

    Played this at Heritage and also at 5dimes once - at a lesser price. FWIW, I'm pretty sure Heritage has all of their CFB futures on a manual move right now (perhaps that is standard at some shops although bizarre to me). Idaho will be, let's guess +1250 or so by Noon EST tomorrow once the cabana boy that is supposed to be moving these lines wakes up, if I were a betting man - of course
  • footballpixfootballpix Senior Member
    edited July 2011
    [url]http://www.***********/articles/articles.aspx?article=&theArt=240944[/url]
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    Arizona UNDER 6.5 Wins -120
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    One more thing that i will add, I have been absolutely shocked at how tolerant Heritage has been thus far in regards to taking money and not moving off of numbers. I heard the opposite from several that I respect, including some on thsi site, but I am really blown away about the lack of movement, esp on these futures.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited July 2011
    horn wrote: »
    One more thing that i will add, I have been absolutely shocked at how tolerant Heritage has been thus far in regards to taking money and not moving off of numbers. I heard the opposite from several that I respect, including some on thsi site, but I am really blown away about the lack of movement, esp on these futures.

    Makes me worry that they're not ready for this
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    Good/Scary point. The fcat they didn't move Idaho off +2500 with the volume they took on that kind of bet raises at least a yellowish flag in my mind
  • hornhorn Super Moderator
    edited July 2011
    Two more:

    Oregon State UNDER 7 Wins -120
    USC OVER 7.5 Wins -130

    It's a PAC 12 Triple Play!

    I think all 4 of these are legitimately a full game off. First time in several years I haven't had a Washington UNDER in play..
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