Shacro NCAAF Week 4 Plays
Shacro
Senior Member
341 Alabama (-7)
Missed it at 6.5, hopefully won't need it.
Missed it at 6.5, hopefully won't need it.
Comments
I think this game opened at MD (-10). It hit 10.5 by midday today and now sits at 11. I would imagine that people like the Terps and don't know too much about FIU. In such a case, the number will obviously rise a bit and suddenly FIU looks like a pretty good play.
Not saying that they'd beat Maryland, but the Panthers may be going overlooked a bit just because they're 0-2. FIU lost to Rutgers in Week 1 but outgained the Scarlet Knights 371 yards to 172. However, the Panthers had five turnovers and committed 14 penalties for 126 yards. Final score 19-14.
In their second game, the Panthers actually led Texas A&M 20-6 going into the fourth quarter but couldn't withstand a strong comeback by the Aggies. The Panthers forced five TAMU turnovers (four fumbles, one interception) and held the Aggies to just 4-of-14 on third down.
Seems to be that the FIU Panthers beat themselves more often than the opposing team. Again, I'm not saying the Panthers will win their third game against the MD Terps in College Park, but if the line increases to a decent number than I think FIU could be a very strong play.
Just a thought. More plays to follow...
Not a whole lot on this game.
Saw the line at a pick 'em and then saw it come down to (+1) to make the Tar Heels an underdog on the road. As I write this, I see that the line is now up to UNC (-1) at The Greek. That being said, seems like the smart money is coming in.
Rutgers will be hosting the Tar Heels while likely starting a true freshman at running back. The team's starter, Joe Martinek, suffered a leg injury in his last game against FIU. According to reports, the injury is actually to Martinek's ankle, hence leading coach Schiano to go with the freshman if Martinek cannot cut and move freely and without pain.
Schiano will also be operating with an offensive line that hasn't yet found its groove. From what I've read, Schiano moved redshirt freshman Antonio Lowery into the lineup in the opening quarter of the team's last game, rotating him with starting guard Caleb Ruch. Apparently Schiano is still searching for a combination of players to become his "starting" line.
The Rutgers defense has played well so far but they've only been tested by Norfolk State and FIU. In fact, FIU outplayed Rutgers and should have won the game, but the Panthers beat themselves by committing five turnovers and falling to the Scarlet Knights 19-14.
The season for the Tar Heels so far has been disappointing to say the least. Butch Davis and his staff were banking on one hell of defense before being smacked with NCAA rule violations and suspensions. Without regard to whose fault it really is, any team without a majority of their talent will suffer on gamedays. And even with the absent talent, the Tar Heels have been able to stay in games against respected programs - including a game against LSU in which they won and then gave away.
The Tar Heels are a better team on both sides of the ball and I will cross my fingers for the team to return some players before this week's game. Whether or not the NCAA actually allows any players to return, I still believe Rutgers is over-matched even on their home field.
Rutgers..................................... Florida Int
1st Downs 8.....................................15
3rd down efficiency 2-13................ 3-13
4th down efficiency 1-2 ....................0-2
Total Yards 172 ..............................371
Passing 96......................................... 204
Comp-Att 8-16.............. .................... 17-32
Yards per pass 6.0................................ 6.4
Rushing 76 ..........................................167
Rushing Attempts 38............................. 36
Yards per rush 2.0................................. 4.6
Penalties 3-15...................................... 14-126
Turnovers 3....................................................... 5
Fumbles lost 2................................................ 3
Interceptions thrown 1 ..... ...............................2
Possession 28:43 ............................................31:17
I laughed out loud when I was going over the Rutgers/FIU game. As much as I respect Schiano, this UNC team is really too much for the Knights.
This one originally opened at 6.5 and laziness prevented me from jumping all over it. Either that, or I was crying myself to sleep after watching my beloved Redskins lose a game after being ahead by 17 points. But thats for another day.
Arkansas hosts the nations No. 1 team this Saturday after a very difficult game last week at Georgia. Although not impressive on the road, the Hogs were able to squeak out a last minute win against a Georgia Bulldogs team that was led by freshman Aaron Murray. This week, even at home, will be the most difficult task of the season for coach Bobby Petrino and his team.
Heisman hopeful Ryan Mallett has been very impressive this season, as he usually is, leading the nation with 360.3 passing yards per game. However, Mallett has been tested only by Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, and Georgia none of which even compare to the Crimson Tide defense. And although I wouldnt call the Hogs offense one dimensional, its tough to ignore that the team hasnt had a 100-yard rusher in their last eight games.
The last time Mallett faced the Tide defense was one year ago on Sept. 26. Mallett finished the game 12-for-325 for 160 yards in a 35-7 defeat in Tuscaloosa. And the last time Bama visited Fayetteville, they left with a 49-14 rout.
But even with the huge advantage for Alabamas defense against the spread offense Hogs, the larger edge for Nick Saban and his team might actually come on the offensive side of the ball. Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy has been quietly impressive (leads nation in pass efficiency), sophomore running back Trent Richardson is virtually unstoppable, and starting Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram appears to have picked up right where he left off.
Although the Arkansas defense is more experienced this year as compared to last years unit, I believe the Alabama offense is the strongest its been, in terms of the skilled position, since Nick Saban took over in 2007. The Arkansas defense allowed 139 rushing yards to Georgia last week, giving up an average 3.4 YPC. That said, theres no reason to believe that theyll hold Ingram/Richardson to under 200 yards rushing.
In their last meeting, the Hogs had a great gameplan in attempting to shutdown Ingram (50 yds, 2.9), but thats when McElroy arose as a sleeping giant finishing with a career-high 291 yards and three touchdowns.
Alabama is well-coached and too rich in talent to lose a game this entire season. Theyre a multi-head monster on offense (McElroy, Ingram, Richardson, Jones, etc.), theyre very highly touted on defense, and their record speaks for itself.
Even with the Tide approaching a very difficult part of their schedule (they host Florida next week and then travel to South Carolina), there is enough discipline on the team to bypass any sort of look-through.
Knack for Numbers: Arkansas has lost four of five against top-25 opponents. Alabama is 7-3 ATS as an away favorite under Nick Saban, and 10-2 straight-up. Arkansas is 4-2 ATS as a home dog under Bobby Petrino, and 9-7 ATS when playing SEC opponents. Alabama has won 18 straight SEC openers dating back to 1992.
No problem Coops. In fact, I've became a little skeptical myself when I saw the line drop back down from 7.5. But at the end of the day, I honestly believe that sometimes we find ourselves over-analyzing the play. Usually I wouldn't admit to such a thing but it's the truth.
This Alabama team is the truth (obviously) and Arkansas was not overly impressive in any of their games this season...
Good luck to Coops, Havana, Horn, and everyone else.
Good primer.
I wanted to play one more game. I think the WVU spread is weird, I didn't want to root against the Terps at all, and as much as I want to get on the Stanford Cardinals...I'll roll with, what I believe is, the safer play.
Write up is on the way.
Typically, travelling to Provo, Utah to take on BYU is not an easy game and that aspect wont change when the Nevada Wolfpack travel there this Saturday.
The difference this season is that the Wolfpack are for real and the Cougars are not. I think the majority of people would agree that the Cougars do not have the defense to stop Nevadas Pistol offense or enough offensive fire power to battle Nevada's defense.
BYU is 1-2 through their first three games (beat Washington), all of which were against mobile and run-threat quarterbacks. But in terms of an actual threat at quarterback, Nevadas Colin Kaepernick may be the most deadly of them all. In fact, BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall has said that the Nevada offense is similar to that of Air Force, but with a better down-field passing game (thanks to Kaepernick). Air Force routed BYU 35-14.
BYU will start the freshman Jake Heaps at quarterback, after losing Riley Nelson to injury, and he will likely continue to struggle behind a dinged up offensive line. While Heaps has showed signs of success, he has also had tough outings on third down and tends to hold the ball entirely too long neither of which will fair well against a Nevada defense that has effectively caused turnovers so far this season.
I have two small concerns in this game. 1.) How will the Nevada defense fair? They allow plenty of movement (especially on the ground) but rely heavily on creating turnovers. Jake Heaps should help with this. 2.) How will Nevada handle the buzz after defeating a California team last week by a lot? Everyone is high on Nevada, their offense is exciting, and a letdown may not be far-fetched in Provo.
Shacro - Why are u not playing Stanford? I have almost as much on that game as I do on Bama. I just cant see ND scoring enough to stay in the game. I know the mystique of playing in South Bend may be scary at first for Stanford, but they are the real deal to me, I think they cover by 10+
Agh! I want to take my Stanford Cardinals so bad in South Bend this weekend but I have decided to lay off because of its location. Andrew Luck, the offense, and the defense are all for real in my opinion - however, some teams may surprise a crowd when they're on the verge of 3 straight losses and their backs against the wall.
I guess you could call me a little girl, Coops. But I'm with ya - Stanford is a great play.
GL
COOPS, your gut feeling was correct!
[ Record Updated ]