Iceman et al...these Faves are killing me this season
homerplayer
Senior Member
51-18 last 4 days are those damn favorites
what's really crazy is favorites can go 12-3, as they did yesterday, and still only produce 5.35 Units in profit. 80% winners on 15 contests sounds like it should be more than that.
what's really crazy is favorites can go 12-3, as they did yesterday, and still only produce 5.35 Units in profit. 80% winners on 15 contests sounds like it should be more than that.
Comments
The funny thing is everyone likes to say how parity has taken over sports, I don't think that is true at all with baseball. Sure you will always have some surprise teams but there is a significant difference in talent with a lot of these teams and it's getting much worse I think. I have followed the sport closely for years and I don't recall many years where there looks to be so many 90+ wins teams and 95+ loss teams out there, we shall see.
One thing I have tried to do which has helped incredibily is find spots where you can take advantage of this talent gap like with my "fade the Pirates" thread which I hope some people have not only learned from but have joined in and made money with. This thread/idea has went 10x better then I had even hoped for and is something I never would have done before but hey value is value and it may be the eaiest thing I have ever done betting wise in my life. There is still a lot of season left but still most of these wins have been no sweat wins, the kind we all love. I think the Pirates should honestly be +200 dogs every single day minimum on the road, especially nowadays. They are simply awful but they seem never to be. It's almost like the books and the public are over thinking this.
The one thing I have noticed this year as compared to years past is +120-+135 dogs have not seemed to win at the rate they won at in the past. I could be wrong but I would love to see some info from someone who has charted this and see if I am right.
Also I keep very good notes from personal obervations the past few years and I know that around late July/early August (right after the trade deadline or so) the favorites have won at a higher rate then even before and up until lasyt year I had struggled with this. Lots of teams who are out of it seem to give up around then and many teams start to really make a push. The dogs seem to really sturggle for a stretch around then until the market starts to catch up. Last year I remember isolating a few teams that I felt were flying a little under the radar and playing them almsot everyday for about 6 weeks (Colorado and Atlanta) and I really picked up a lot of units doing something like this. I think we need to find a team or 2 like that right now who is about to do that soon. The White Sox have been a great example of that the past month.
I think the one big thing also is that most know how important the "betting the dog" concept is in MLB. I have charted all my bets for the past few years and I have shown a healthy profit betting MLB but the one area I still have not beat enough to overcome the juice and I have tried to stay away from is the -120 to -140 favorite. For some reason I seem to show a losing mark when betting these so with that said I do still think betting dogs is the best way to go in MLB. You just have to hang on for thr roller coaster ride that comes with it. Good luck!!!